Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 13 and 14, 2017: Unsettled forecast.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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November 13, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  There is a chance of clouds lingering in some areas.  Clouds often times are slow to leave during the fall and winter months.  They find themselves trapped under an inversion (a layer of warm air aloft).  It will be chilly.  Fog may form if clouds clear.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 32 to 36    IL ~ 32 to 36      KY ~ 34 to 38
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: East and northeast 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 14, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A small chance of showers towards evening over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60    IL ~ 55 to 60      KY ~ 55 to 60
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: East and southeast 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20% (after 3 pm)    IL ~ 10% (late in the day)    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clouds thickening.  Shower chances will be on the increase (mainly late).  Thunderstorms are possible late.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 40 to 45    IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: South and southeast winds increasing to 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but check radars

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November 15, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers likely.  A  thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty winds, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.  Check updates and radars

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Evening clouds.  Isolated showers.  I believe most of the rain will have ended.  Cool temperatures.  If we clear out then fog would be possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 38 to 42    IL ~ 38 to 42      KY ~ 38 to 42
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
:  West and northwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Perhaps wet roadways early.  Most of the rain should have ended.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered.  Ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 16, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Warmer.  Isolated shower possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64    IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.  I believe Thursday *during the day* will remain dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy. Temperatures may hold steady or rise.  A warm front will be pushing into the region.  A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and north of the front.  There are some questions about Thursday night’s rain chances.  I have added a 30% chance. I will monitor trends in case adjustments are necessary.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 46 to 52+     IL ~ 46 to 52+     KY ~ 46 to 52+
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: East and southeast winds becoming south/southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low to medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but monitor updates

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November 17, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Pockets of sunshine.  Gusty winds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Rain chances should increase during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68    IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest winds 15 to 30 mph.  Gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  Some storms could be intense.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.  Most of the precipitation could hold off until the afternoon hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars and updates.

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The Friday night and Saturday forecast is based on the forecast that the cold front arrives on Friday afternoon and night.  The forecast will need adjusting if the front arrives later than anticipated.

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Breezy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 45 to 50     IL ~ 45 to 50     KY ~ 45 to 50
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Winds becoming west and northwest late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Gusty winds.  Lightning.  Monitor for stronger storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? Some storms could be intense.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Tapering from west to east
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: I would monitor updates and radars

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November 18, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Morning clouds.  We may still have to deal with some showers before 11 am.  Partly cloudy in the afternoon and cooler.  Breezy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice:  No
Winds: North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps some remaining showers before 11 am
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates.

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 30 to 35     IL ~ 30 to 35     KY ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: North winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

School Bus Stop Forecast for Tuesday

Morning

Afternoon

 

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Monday night through Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday: I am monitoring a storm system that will bring thunderstorms into the region.  Some of the storms on Friday and Friday night could become intense.  Severe weather can’t be ruled out.  Damaging winds would be the primary risk.

Weekly Severe Weather Outlook.  Friday has been marked with a risk.

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Monday night through Saturday:  Widespread/accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

Tuesday night and Wednesday

High confidence.

A cold front will push into the region on Tuesday night.  This front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.  The showers and storms will linger into at Wednesday.

The best chance of rain will likely be between 4 am Wednesday and 4 pm Wednesday.

Here is the Tuesday weather map.  The rain should remain out of our area until Tuesday night.  You can see the shaded area representing the rain by late afternoon and evening.

Here is the Wednesday weather map.  A cold front pushing through our region.

Here is the future-cast radar animation from the NAM guidance.

This shows you what radar might look like on Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Click image to enlarge.

Time starts at 9 p.m., on Tuesday and ends at 6 p.m., on Wednesday.

Rainfall totals will likely range from 0.10″ to 0.30″.  Thunderstorms will produce locally heavier totals.  Severe weather is not anticipated with this cold front.

Here are my forecast probabilities for the Tuesday night/Wednesday rain event.

Let me show you some model guidance.  These are rainfall totals for the Tuesday night and Wednesday event.

Different models.  Different opinions.

This is the NAM model guidance.  Rainfall totals for the Tuesday night/Wednesday event.

GFS model guidance.  Rainfall totals forecast from that model.

Canadian model guidance.

NAM high resolution model guidance.

Lows on Tuesday night will likely dip into the 40’s and highs on Wednesday should climb into the 52 to 56 degree range.  No extremes.

Showers should end by Wednesday night.  I can’t rule out some evening showers, but I believe the bulk of the rain activity will have moved off to the east.

Winds Monday night through Tuesday night will remain below 15 mph.

Wednesday will have gusty winds.  Winds in the 10 to 20 mph range are possible.

Thursday

High confidence.

Thursday will deliver a mix of sun and clouds.  We should remain dry during the day.  A warm front will be situated to our south and it will be moving northward.  Clouds will likely increase as we move through the day.  High temperatures on Thursday will range from 55 to 60 degrees.  A little milder than Wednesday.

Thursday night through Saturday morning

Medium confidence.

** Strong Cold Front **

The big weather story of the week will be a strong storm system that will push into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front into our region.

An area of low pressure will develop over Iowa on Thursday night and Friday.  This low will deepen and move into Wisconsin on Friday.  Strong and gusty southerly winds will spread across our region in response to the deepening low and tightening isobars (equal lines of barometric pressure).

Here is a technical graphic on isobars and barometric pressure.

H = High pressure (pressure decreases in all directions from center) L = Low pressure (pressure increases in all directions from center) The contour lines are called isobars, lines of constant air pressure. Strength of resultant wind is proportional to the isobar spacing. Less spacing = stronger pressure gradient = stronger winds. Slide26.mp3. The magnitude of the pressure gradient force is proportional to the isobar or contour spacing because the isobar or contour spacing represents how strong or weak the pressure gradient is. If the isobars or contours are closely packed together, the pressure gradient is higher and therefore the pressure gradient force is stronger. This would cause the wind speeds to be higher than in an area where the isobars or contours are farther apart. Fig. 6-4, p. 161.

 

Winds will gust above 30 mph on Friday into Friday night.

Here is the 6 p.m., Friday wind gust map

This is the GFS models opinion on the timing of the storm system.

Keep in mind, every model is different with the timing of the cold front.  I am forecasting the front to push through the region Friday evening/night.  Medium confidence.

Low pressure is forming in Iowa.  See the red L?  That is the center of the low pressure.  Cold front trails back into Kansas.  Gusty winds over our region.  Southerly winds.

Friday weather map.  12 p.m.

6 p.m., Friday weather map.  Deep low north of Chicago.  A band of showers and thunderstorms trailing back into Arkansas.  Locally heavy storms are likely along the cold front.

Snow is falling in Wisconsin.  Snow would be the blue colors.  Rain would be green.  Darker green is heavier rain.

12 a.m., Saturday weather map.  The low is centered over northern Michigan.  A cold front trails into our region.  A band of showers and heavy storms will accompany the front.  Notice the black lines.  Those are the isobars.  They are packed tight.  That means gusty winds.

6 a.m., Saturday weather map.  The front is situated just to our east.  Rain should have ended.  Heavy snow falling west and northwest of the low.

The timing of the front is questionable.  Each model has a different opinion.  Keep that in mind.

Temperatures on Thursday night might remain steady or even rise.  This will also be in response to the strong and gusty southerly winds.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night as the warm front moves through the region.  At this time, severe weather appears unlikely on Thursday night, but I will monitor the hail risk.  Occasionally storms along the warm front can produce hail.

The timing of the cold front is key to the Friday and Friday night forecast.

A band of showers and heavy thunderstorms will accompany the front.  Some of the storms could be strong.  I am monitoring the severe weather risk.

Typically, this setup would mean the risk for a few severe thunderstorms.  The question centers around how high dew points will rise on Friday and Friday night.  If dew points rise above 58 degrees, then severe storms become more likely.

Let’s look at dew points.  Dew point is a measure of moisture in the lower atmosphere.  Dew points are important when it comes to forecasting severe thunderstorms.  During the fall and winter months we often times look for 58 degree or higher dew points.  That would mean severe weather is more likely.

The GFS shows dew points attempting to push that high.  Let’s monitor trends over the coming days.

12 p.m., Friday dew point forecast map

6 p.m., Friday dew point forecast map.

CAPE values in the 100 to 300 range would be sufficient for severe storms in the Missouri and Ohio Valleys.  CAPE is a measure of instability.  The higher the number the more likely severe storms will occur (when other ingredients are added).

CAPE values are forecast to be fairly low.  This will need to be monitored.  Right now the guidance is showing 50 to 300 joules of CAPE.

We will have strong wind fields aloft on Friday and Friday night.  This is another ingredient for severe thunderstorms.

Monitor updates concerning the Friday/Friday night time period.  I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk zone for Friday.  They outlined a large area.  They will need to fine tune their forecast moving forward.  I am sure this outlook will evolve with time.

The yellow zone is simply where they believe some storms could become severe.   Again, this will need adjusting as we move forward.

If the front slows, then Saturday will also need to be monitored.  For now, I have the cold front moving through the region late Friday into Friday night.

Rainfall amounts with this system will likely be heavier than recent events.  I am forecasting 0.40″ to 0.80″ with higher totals possible in Thunderstorms.  Rain totals greater than one inch are likely in thunderstorms.

Once the cold front pushes through the region we will see temperatures fall and the rain come to an end.  Winds will turn out of the west/northwest behind the front.  Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will likely be in the upper 40’s to middle 50’s for highs and lows in the 30’s.

 

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Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

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