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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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November 12, 2016
Saturday Night: Freeze warning. Mostly clear. Colder. Widespread frost likely. A freeze possible.
What impact is expected? Widespread frost and/or freeze.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 24-28 degree range. Temperatures could vary in cold favored locations and over our far southern counties.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds becoming east and southeast at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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November 13, 2016
Sunday: Morning frost/freeze. Mostly sunny. A nice autumn day. Near normal temperatures during the afternoon hours.
What impact is expected? Morning frost possible. A freeze is possible. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast and south becoming southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 4:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Not as cold.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy frost.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range. Below normal temperatures.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Light and variable winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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November 14, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny. Patchy clouds in the afternoon. Isolated shower possible (mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois). Above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 5:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:21 a.m. Full Moon
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Monday Night: Some clouds. Isolated chance for an evening shower. Not as cold.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 15, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Mild with above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range. Mild.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 00%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 6:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:33 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 16, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Mild. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:43 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 7:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:40 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 17, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Mild. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 8:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear early. Perhaps a few clouds after midnight. Mild for November.
What impact is expected? None anticipated, at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 18, 2016
Friday: Partly sunny. Mild. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Windy, at times. I will need to monitor the timing of the cold front.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 9:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 7-14 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 19, 2016
Saturday: Perhaps some morning clouds. Shower possible before 8 am. Becoming sunny with patchy clouds. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps a few showers before 8 am. I will need to update the timing of the cold front passing through the region.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 10:15 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:26 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cold.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 20, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 3
Moonrise will be at 11:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:07 p.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Freeze advisory late Saturday night/Sunday morning
- Calm weather
- Very warm this week with above normal temperatures
- Rain by the weekend?
- Burn bans are in effect for much of the area
Did anyone notice I put October on yesterday’s post? It has been that kind of week.
Freeze advisory tonight for most of the area. A freeze watch for the Bootheel of Missouri and northwest Tennessee. They might be upgraded to an advisory, as well.
Calm weather will continue into the new work week. Drought conditions will worsen. Temperatures will warm up, as well. Expect well above normal temperatures by the middle and end of the week. Par for the course. This has been a warm autumn.
Normal temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 58 degrees for highs and 38 degrees for lows.
Here is the GFS sixteen day temperature map. This is just one models opinion. It won’t be exact. You get the general idea.
Let’s take a look at some anomaly maps. How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be? Well, here you go!
We start out on Sunday morning. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. The number represents how many degrees below normal.
This next map is for Tuesday. We pop above normal.
This next map is for Wednesday. Again, we pop above normal. Well above normal, actually.
This next map is for Thursday. Again, above normal.
This next map is for Friday
Most of this week will deliver above normal temperatures.
Let’s take a look at the Friday storm system. Deep low associated with this system. There could be some thunderstorms. This will need to be monitored. Wind fields pick up late Thursday night into Friday night. If we do have CAPE (energy for storms) then some strong storms can’t be ruled out. Confidence, at least right now, is low.
This first map is for Friday afternoon around 12 pm. You can see the low in eastern Nebraska. Cold front trails to the south. Blue represents snow (some heavy snow). The green represents showers and perhaps thunderstorms.
Click images on this page to enlarge.
This next map is for Friday evening around 6 pm. The timing of the front will need to be monitored. You can see a band of showers and thunderstorms advancing eastward along the cold front. Tight pressure gradient over portions of the region. Gusty winds.
This next image is for Saturday morning around 6 am. The front is still moving through our region. Again, this will need to be monitored.
Here is the Saturday morning wind speed map. Scale is on the right side of the image. Strong winds in the snow region of this system. Winter storm warnings are likely across portions of the plains.
You can see the PWAT anomaly map (moisture in the entire atmosphere) and the dew point maps. A spike in both as the front nears our region.
Dew point map (below)
Some of the models are showing Thanksgiving week as colder than normal. This is the time frame we have been monitoring for over a month. The third/fourth week of November. Pattern shift? It is possible, but confidence remains low.
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
I am monitoring a storm system for Friday/Saturday. Low confidence. We just don’t seem to be able to pick up significant rain in our region. The last two months have been dry. Let’s hope Friday’s system will bring some rain. Burn bans continue for many areas.
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM. These are rainfall totals from the weekend system. We shall see.
GEM
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Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday night through next Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday into Friday night: Thunderstorms are possible as a cold front nears the region. I can’t rule out strong storms. Let’s keep an eye on it.
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No significant changes.
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Frost and freeze conditions are likely Saturday night/Sunday morning
Monitoring a cold front for Friday. Storms possible.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
