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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Fog developing. Light rain or drizzle. Showers possible. Temperatures holding steady or rising through the night. Gusty winds. Low temperatures will be early in the evening.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 54 KY ~ 53 to 56
Winds: South and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Dense fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 2, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm for November. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Southerly wind at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms are a good possibility. Mild for November.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 62 (cooler north vs south) IL ~ 52 to 64 (cooler north vs south) KY ~ 60 to 65
Winds: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Small hail possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? A small risk for strong storms with gusty winds and small hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 69% KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
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November 3, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cooler temperatures near Mt. Vernon vs areas further south. A shower possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~ 54 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Variable winds 7 to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Small risk for lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A few showers possible. Fog possible. Drizzle at times. Temperatures may rise late at night.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 62 (cooler north vs south) IL ~ 52 to 58 (cooler north vs south) KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: Easterly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. I will monitor the lightning risk
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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November 4, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Most of the day may end up dry. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southeast wind at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. A small chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Mild for November.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 66
Winds: Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Small chance.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 5, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning sun. Warm. Increase in clouds possible through the day. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78
Winds: Southerly wind at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 64 IL ~ 60 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 64
Winds: Southerly winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but monitor updates.
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November 6, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70
Winds: South winds becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Variable 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates
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November 7, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Variable winds becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible. Turning cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48
Winds: North 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:
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Thursday at the bus stop
Thursday afternoon
The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night: No severe weather concerns.
Thursday through Sunday: Lightning is possible on Thursday and perhaps into the weekend. For now, severe weather is not in the forecast. I will monitor trends.
Sunday night into Monday night: Thunderstorms are possible. A few intense storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
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Wednesday night through next Thursday: Widespread/accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
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Weather Highlights:
Welcome to November!
Many of you received rain on Tuesday night. Some had a wintry mix, as expected. There were not any travel issues because temperatures were above freezing.
We are going to have unsettled weather into early next week. There will be almost daily chances for showers and even some thunderstorms.
We will also undergo a warming trend that will take us into Monday afternoon.
Tonight
Temperatures won’t fall tonight. They will hold steady or rise into Thursday morning. Opposite of what we would normally expect.
A few scattered showers are possible tonight, as well. Dense fog and drizzle will also be a concern for Wednesday night.
Winds will begin to pick up from the south. Gusty winds are possible tonight into Thursday. Gusts above 18 mph are possible.
Thursday
Spring weather.
You can expect quite a few clouds on Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will warm into the 68 to 74-degree range on Thursday and upper 60’s on Friday. Friday could be warmer if we have more sunshine.
There will be widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Chances at any given location will likely remain below 40% during the daylight hours. Chances will ramp up a bit on Thursday night and then decrease again on Friday.
Friday night will be mild with a 30% for showers and storms. Lows in the 50’s. Well above our seasonal norms of 42 to 44 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday
Spring-like weather for the weekend.
We may have a few scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night. Saturday rain chances will be between 40% and 50%. Chances on Saturday night should decrease to 20% to 30%. It will be warm with highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Spring-like air.
Sunday may end up the one day without much in the way of rain chances. I have capped chances at less than 20%. I will monitor trends in case that number needs adjusting. Sunday may end up being the pick day of the weekend. Highs will be in the middle 70’s. It will not feel like November.
A few thunderstorms are possible on Sunday night and especially on Monday. Some of the storms could be intense. Monitor updates.
Normal high temperatures are in the lower to middle 60’s.
Temperature anomaly forecast for Saturday and Sunday. How many degrees above normal will temperatures be?
Saturday 7 am temperature anomalies.
Saturday 7 pm temperature anomalies.
Sunday 12 pm temperature anomalies.
Monday 12 am temperature anomalies
Monday 6 pm temperature anomalies.
Notice the cold front. Cooler air to our northwest. Warm air ahead of the front.
Numerous days with LARGE temperature anomalies.
Monday and Tuesday
Another cold front will push through the region on Monday and Monday night. A band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage.
Some of the storms on Monday could be intense. Monitor updates.
Somewhat cooler air will arrive on Tuesday, but it will still be above seasonal norms. We are going to start November off on a warm note.
Wednesday night low temperatures
Temperatures will rise through the night on southerly winds.
Thursday high temperature
Thursday night low temperatures
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Whom do you trust for your weather information?
I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
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I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.
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In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history. This was in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
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