Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 1, 2016: Welcome to November. Warm weather to continue.

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Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

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For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..

New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..

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Monday
Night: Mostly clear.  Mild.  
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 5:57 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:54 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.

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November 1, 2016
Tuesday:
 Mostly sunny.  Mild for October. Breezy, at times.  Well above normal temperatures.  Record high temperatures likely.
What impact is expected? None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify. 
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph.  Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:20 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:56 p.m.
UV Index:  9

Moonrise
will be at 8:51 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:32 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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November 1, 2016
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected
?  None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest winds  at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 5:56 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 8:51 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:32 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.

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November 2, 2016
Wednesday: Warm.  Some increase in clouds through the day.  Breezy, at times.  Near record or record high temperatures.
What impact is expected?  None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East winds becoming south/southwest at 7-14 mph.  Perhaps higher gusts.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
  Most likely none
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise
will be at 7:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:55 p.m.
UV Index: 6-9
Moonrise
will be at 9:45 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:12 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Wednesday Night: 
Increasing clouds.  A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms (late at night).
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 50%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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November 3, 2016
Thursday: Mostly cloudy.   A good chance for a few morning showers.  Thunder possible. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming north at 6-12 mph.  Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 60% .  TN ~ 50%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Some showers are a good bet on Thursday.  Not an all day rain.  Scattered.
Sunrise
will be at 7:22 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:54 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3 (cloud cover should keep the UV index lower)

Moonrise
will be at 10:36 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:57 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Thursday Night:
  Clear.  Cool temperatures.  Perhaps some patchy fog.
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   North and northwest winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Mostly likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 4, 2016
Friday: Mostly sunny.  Above normal temperatures, but cooler than earlier in the week.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  North and northwest winds 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:53 p.m.
UV Index: 6-9

Moonrise
will be at 11:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:46 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Friday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected
?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the  39 to 44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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November 5, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny.  Above normal temperatures will continue.
What impact is expected?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No 
Sunrise
will be at 7:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:52 p.m.
UV Index:  6-8

Moonrise
will be at 12:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:39 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Saturday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   North winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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November 7, 2016
Sunday:  Mostly sunny.  Above normal temperatures continue.  Mild.
What impact is expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Northeast and east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
UV Index:  5-7
Moonrise
will be at 11:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:35 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Sunday Night:
 Mostly clear.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 43-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   Northeast and east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 8, 2016
Monday:  Partly sunny.  Above normal temperatures will continue.
What impact is expected?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:50 p.m.
UV Index:  5-7

Moonrise
will be at 12:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:35 p.m.  First Quarter.
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Monday Night:
 Mostly clear.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 43-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 9, 2016
Tuesday:  Partly sunny.  
What impact is expected?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index:  5-7

Moonrise
will be at 1:17 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– a.m.  Waxing Gibbous 
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Tuesday Night:
  Partly cloudy.  
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

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Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties.  We look forward to representing YOU!  Follow us on Facebook, as well

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1. More warm weather
  2. Cold front pushes into the region on Thursday
  3. Rain chances along the front?
  4. Above normal temperatures through next Monday (but not as warm as recent days)
  5. Rain chances between November 7th and 10th
  6. Cold weather in the long range charts?

Our warm weather continues.

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It appears that record warm temperatures will continue to be in the news through Wednesday.  Record high temperatures are anticipated for both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Highs will range from 82 to 86 degrees.  Some reporting stations will experience temperatures twenty degrees above normal.  Normal high temperatures are from 60-65 degrees.  Normal lows temperatures are from 38 to 42 degrees.

Normal temperatures are not in the forecast through at least next Monday or Tuesday.  Par for the course.

Here are the temperature anomalies for Tuesday and Wednesday.  How many degrees above normal will temperatures be?

Tuesday anomalies

wedanoms1

Wednesday anomalies

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Gusty winds are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Perhaps some gusts above 20 mph.

The light blue colors represent wind gusts of 15-20 mph (perhaps a bit higher)

Tuesday

sfcwind_mslp-wxt_ov

Wednesday

sfcwind_mslp-wxt_ov-1

Drought conditions continue to develop.  No relief in sight for those in need of significant rain.  A cold front will push through the region on Thursday.  Some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will accompany the front.  Rainfall totals will range from 0.00″ to 0.25″.  Not much and not nearly enough.

The NAM guidance is painting a band of heavier precipitation over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  This is an outlier solution.  I will monitor trends.  See graphic below.

Here are three different models showing you potential rainfall totals for the Thursday cold front.

GFS

gfsrainfall

GEM

gemrainfall

NAM

Notice the NAM has a heavier band of precipitation across southern Missouri into parts of Illinois.

nammodelguidance

Here is the six to ten day precipitation outlook.  Brown indicates below normal precipitation is favored by the guidance.

Below normal precipitation.

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Here is the percent of normal precipitation over the past 30 days.  Portions of our region have had less than 10% of their normal monthly rainfall.

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This graphic shows you the departure from normal precipitation numbers.  Portions of our region are three to four inches below normal in the precipitation departments.

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How about temperatures.  How many degrees above normal have temperatures been during the Month of October

Will this be the warmest October since the 1880’s?  Time will tell.

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Our next chance of rain is showing up in the long range charts around November 7th through 10th.  Long way off and plenty of time to monitor.

Here is the November 9th precipitation forecast map from the GFS model.  Low confidence (since it is so far out)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38

Sustained cold is not showing up in the charts.  There will be some cooler air as we push towards Thursday and Friday.  Overnight lows will finally return to the 40’s, but will still be above normal.  I do not anticipate frost or freeze conditions through next Tuesday.

Here are the GFS high and low temperatures well into November.  Date is at the bottom of the graphic.  Temperature on the left side of the graphic.

kpah_2016103106_min_max_16

Let’s take a look at the above and below normal anomalies.  The orange colors represent above normal temperatures.  The blue shading represents below normal temperatures.  This takes us through November 16th.  Lot of above normal anomalies.

Click image to enlarge.  Date is on the bottom of the graphic.  The numbers on the left side of the graphic represent how many degrees above or below normal temperatures will be.

kpah_2016103106_nxa_384

Here is the month to date temperature anomaly map.  Most of the country has experienced above normal temperatures since the first of October.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

Frost and freeze conditions will have to hold off for at least another 7-10 days.  I am monitoring the middle/end of November for colder air.  Confidence, that far out, is low.  Early snow this year?  Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves!

How long until I have to pull out the winter weather graphics?

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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?

WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast

No rain in our forecast through at least Wednesday.

Here is the latest rainfall outlook for Thursday’s rain event.

Click image to enlarge

wpc_total_precip_ky_15

 

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Tuesday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday 
afternoon 4 pm temperatures

Locally warmer
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Wednesday morning low temperatures
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Wednesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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 wedhighs
Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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.No major changes in this update.
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Patchy dense fog could lower visibility over the coming nights.  Fog will mix out during the early to mid morning hours.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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