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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are the averages.
With this type of pattern I can’t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm in the region. But, no organized precipitation is forecast until late in the week. Just keep in mind…there could be a shower or storm popup. Very widely scattered or isolated in nature.
Monday – A 10%-20% chance of showers north of Mt Vernon into perhaps parts of southwest Indiana before 10 am. Partly cloudy and warm. Gusty winds at times. High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Winds South/southwest at 10-15 mph. Gusts above 20 mph at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Monday night – Quite a few clouds. Mild. Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Tuesday – Partly cloudy and warm. A 20% chance for a shower over southeast Missouri. A 10% chance elsewhere. High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s. Winds southerly at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Tuesday night – A few clouds. A slight chance for a shower. Mild. Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Wednesday – Partly cloudy and warm. A 30% chance for a shower over southeast Missouri into far southwest Illinois (up towards Randolph County). High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s. Winds southerly at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Monday will be another warm day. We have earned some warm days.
2. Warm weather will last all week.
3. Rain chances towards the end of the new work week? Those with weekend plans should monitor the extended forecast part of the blog (scroll down for that)
How about a nice sunrise photograph to start the Weather Talk blog entry. The photograph was taken by Jim Martin from the Findlay Reservoir in Ohio. Nice photograph!
Our weather over the coming days will be controlled by a ridge of high pressure centered near our region. Normally during the spring and summer months an area of high pressure building into the region from the southwest, south, or southeast will mean dry and warm weather. That will be the case over the coming days. During the wind months you might read about high pressure centers meaning cold weather. Those highs usually build in from Canada. This is sort of opposite of that.
Small shower or thunderstorm chances this week (until late in the week when rain chances should increase).
Disturbances usually move around the periphery of the high. And, that is what will happen this week. You can see the high on this chart. You can see the colors rotating around the high. Those colors represent disturbances. This will keep our region mostly dry over the coming days. The models do paint a few showers from time to time. I will keep an eye on that part of the forecast. For now, I will keep most of the forecast dry until the weekend (scroll down for the extended part of the forecast)
Winds rotate clockwise around high pressure. That is why our winds turn southerly as a high pulls away.
Temperatures will be in the 80’s this week. This will be the warmest week of the spring, thus far!
You can see a cold front well to our west on Monday (map below). This cold front will be the main focus for showers and storms over the coming days.
See the extended forecast below for more information on the long range outlook.
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No major changes to the ongoing forecast.
No major concerns.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – the wild card in this forecast will be the chances for a shower or thunderstorm over southeast Missouri on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Weak disturbance moving into the area.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Monday. I will monitor Tuesday/Tuesday night for a shower or thunderstorm over our western counties (parts of southeast Missouri)
.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No precipitation through Monday night. Perhaps a few showers for our western counties on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights:
1. Warm weather all week. First full warm week of weather for the spring season, thus far
2. Wet next weekend?
I believe most of this week will be dry. Monday into Thursday. The models are painting a few showers from time to time over parts of the region. But, for now I will leave the bulk of the forecast dry. We have some weak disturbances that attempt to move through the region. The best lift, however, will hold off until late in the new work week.
I know many of you have outdoor plans this coming weekend. I am watching for some shower and thunderstorm chances on Friday into Sunday. Long way off and too soon for details. If you have outdoor plans then continue to monitor. Perhaps the best chances will be Saturday night into Monday. But, again…long way off for details.
Let’s look at some GFS precipitation map. The GFS is a computer model. It is painting some showers and storms on Saturday evening. Again, don’t pay too much attention to exactly where precipitation is located. Too far out…but just grab onto the idea that some precipitation might occur in the region. Images are from weatherbell.com
This next image is for Sunday morning.
This next image is for Sunday night. Again, some precipitation in the region. CAPE (energy in the atmosphere) will be fairly high next weekend. That means thunderstorms.
There are some indications that we might have to deal with stormier weather around May 15th-20th. Long way off, but I will be keeping an eye on trends.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
