Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 31st and June 1st, 2017: A few storms?

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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May 31, 2017

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.  Perhaps the greatest chance will be over southeast Missouri early and then later over southern Illinois into western Kentucky/Tennessee.  A disturbance will pass through the region.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62     IL ~ 56 to 62     KY ~ 56 to 62      TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds:  East and northeast winds becoming variable at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps a few wet roadways and lightning.  Many areas will likely remain dry.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but glance at radars

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June 1, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A few scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.  Many areas will remain dry.
Temperatures:   MO ~  84 to 86       IL  84 to 86      KY  84 to 86     TN  82 to 86
Winds:  East and southeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered.  Many areas may remain dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66     IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 62 to 66      TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.  Winds variable, at times.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.  Many areas may remain dry.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but check radars

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June 2, 2017
Fri
day Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.   Warm.  Humid, at times.  A few thunderstorms possible.  Many areas may remain dry.
Temperatures:   MO ~  84 to 88    IL  82 to 86      KY  84 to 88     TN  84 to 88
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 14 mph.  Winds becoming south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm possible.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70     KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  South at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%   IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.

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June 3, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance for a few thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~  84 to 88    IL  84 to 88       KY  84 to 84     TN  84 to 84
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updated forecasts.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updated forecasts.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy early with a chance for a thunderstorms.  Becoming cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68     KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor future updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%   IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars

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June 4, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~  84 to 88    IL  84 to 88      KY  84 to 88     TN  84 to 88
Winds:  West and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates moving forward.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65     KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds:  West winds at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No

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June 5, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~  82 to 86    IL  82 to 86      KY  82 to 86     TN  82 to 86
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.  Gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are likely.

Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 64     IL ~ 56 to 64     KY ~ 56 to 64      TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some wet roads and lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No

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June 6, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
Temperatures:   MO ~  80 to 84    IL  80 to 84      KY  80 to 84     TN  80 to 84
Winds:  West winds at 10 to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are likely.

Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear to partly cloudy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64     IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Wednesday night through Sunday:  We will have on and off thunderstorm chances over the next seven days.  See detailed forecast above.  At this time severe weather appears unlikely.  Lightning is a concern, as always.

beausanalysis

Weather Analysis for the coming week:

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

The main weather story over the next seven days will be the on and off spotty shower and thunderstorm chances.

Here is the latest WPC rainfall forecast.  Typically, during this time of the year, slow moving thunderstorm can double or triple these numbers.  These numbers represent average totals through the next seven days.

Click images to enlarge.

North view of the seven day rainfall forecast

Trying to pin down the best time frame for precipitation is always difficult during the summer months.  June 1st does begin meteorological summer.

This coming week or two will be no different.

Don’t forget, during the June through August time frame, we normally have 10% chances for thunderstorms on any given day.  What does that mean?  It means someone will have a 100% for a thunderstorm, but many areas will remain dry.

It is only when we have weak disturbances move through the jet stream flow that coverage increases.  We aren’t quite there yet, to that pattern, but it won’t be long.

I will be monitoring northwest flow events.  That is when the jet stream turns out of the northwest and delivers thunderstorm complexes.  They move from the northwest towards the south and southeast.  They typically surround the ridge of high pressure (during the summer months).  We call these complexes, MCS’s.  Mesoscale-Convective-Systems.

They can produce heavy rain and damaging winds.  Frequent lightning, as well.  They are not unusual.  They are actually responsible for most of the crop rainfall during the summer months.  They are a necessary evil.

Wednesday night:

A weak disturbance will push through the region on Wednesday night.  Some scattered thunderstorms are possible, especially over southeast Missouri.  Lightning is the main concern.  Pea size hail.

Thursday into Friday:

A few scattered showers and storms will be possible during this time frame.  At one time, it appeared Friday would deliver likely rain chances.  That has been decreased down to scattered.  Many areas may remain mostly shower-free.

Monitor updates.  Fast moving disturbances could occasionally enhance rain probabilities.  Lower than normal confidence on this topic.  Monitor radars, if you have concerns.

Friday night into Sunday:

A stronger system will push through the region on Saturday and Sunday.   Today’s guidance wants to continue rain chances into at least Monday.  This is certainly a possibility.

I am just not sure how high rain chances should be this weekend.  I keep going back and forth on this issue.  Monitor updates.  I would not cancel any plans.

Locally heavy downpours will be possible on Saturday.  PWAT values (a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere) will be high.  That usually means some heavy rainfall totals.  I certainly won’t promise everyone significant totals, but a few spots could top one inch of rain.

Dew points will be high, at times, on Friday into Sunday.  Dew points are a measure of moisture at the lower level of the atmosphere.  Dew points of 65 and above are humid.  Once you reach a 70 degree dew point it is muggy.

Saturday 7 PM dew point forecast

Sunday afternoon and evening dew point map

I am monitoring a tropical depression off the coast of Mexico.  This would be the Pacific Ocean basin.  This tropical system could spread a bit more moisture into our region this weekend.  If that were to happen, it would increase rainfall totals just a tad.  It is something that I am closely monitoring.

At this time, the threat for severe weather appears to be fairly small.  Perhaps not zero.  We are entering that time of the year when storms can produce isolated down burst winds.  Hail, as well.

Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely.  As always, monitor updated forecasts.  They can and occasionally do change.

Temperatures will be warm over the coming days.  Perhaps a bit above normal.  Most days will deliver high temperatures in the 78 to 84 degree range.  See details at the top of the blog post.  A few days will deliver middle 80’s.

 

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Find me on Twitter

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The app is for text subscribers.

The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here

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If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

The Android app is also ready.

Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers.  The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.

Here is the download link for the Android version  Click Here

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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