Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 30, 2015: Some precipitation chances over the weekend

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.

The pattern over the coming days will bring a few thunderstorms.  This is a summer type pattern.  I can’t rule out a storm from time to time.  I will try to give you the % number…the best I can.

Saturday –  Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.  A few storms could produce small hail and high winds.  Overall the severe weather risk is small at any given location, but certainly not zero.  A couple of rounds of precipitation possible.  Highs around 82 degrees with southerly winds at 10-15 mph.  Chance of precipitation will be 90%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
Have a plan B in case it rains on your outdoor events.

Saturday night –  Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Lows in the 60’s.  Southwest and west winds at 10 mph.  Chance for precipitation will be 60% early and then 40% late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
  Have a plan B in case it rains

Sunday –  More clouds than sun.  A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.  Highs in the 70’s.  West winds at 10-15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.  Chance for precipitation will be 30% (monitor updates on the % for Sunday…might need to be adjusted)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
Have a plan B in case it rains on your outdoor events.

Sunday night –  Partly cloudy and cooler.  A 10% chance for a shower.  Lows in the 50’s to lower 60’s with northerly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
  No.

Monday –  Partly sunny and cooler.  Not as humid.  Maybe a 10% chance for a shower over our south and southeast counties.  Highs in the 70’s with northerly winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No

 

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Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here

 

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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

 

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Thunderstorm chances increase along a cold front
2.  Hoping Sunday will bring less coverage.  Saturday looks to be the best chance for precipitation
3.  Long range has somewhat drier conditions (let’s hope)

Yet another in a series of cold fronts will move through the region this weekend.  Par for the weekend course.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front.  The bulk of the precipitation will fall on Saturday and Saturday night.  Locally heavy downpours are possible.  The risk for severe weather is minimal.  Wind fields are weak.  But, the risk is not zero.  A few reports of damaging winds can’t be ruled out.  Small hail, as well.  There will be some shear to work with and that means a small tornado risk.

The front will sag southward on Sunday and Monday.  This will shut down most of the showers and thunderstorms.  We will still have some chances of precipitation on Sunday.  But, believe there will be more dry time on Sunday vs Saturday.

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday then have a back up plan.  I can’t rule out showers and storms at any given time.  Perhaps the most widespread time for precipitation will be Saturday afternoon and evening, But, Saturday morning won’t be rain-free either.  Thus, have a plan B.

We will cool down a bit on Sunday into next week (once the cold front has passed).  Less humid air mass behind the front.

Saturday high temperatures

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Sunday high temperatures

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Monday high temperatures

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Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

 

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Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

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If you have plans over the weekend then have a plan B.  Some thunderstorms are likely going to be a part of the forecast, once again.  Same as the last few weeks.  Rainfall totals will vary quite a bit.

A few strong storms can’t be ruled out.  I would not cancel any plans, yet.  But, I would monitor updates.

 

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If you have weekend plans then have a plan B.  Rain will be possible.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level is ONE.  A few storms will be possible through the week.  Organized severe weather is not anticipated.  There could be some high winds with a few storms.  This type of atmosphere typically does produce isolated severe weather reports

Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data.  Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.

Saturday Severe Weather Outlook –  Thunderstorms will be possible.  Right now I am not expecting organized severe storms…but a few severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook –  A few thunderstorms still possible.  Front might shift southward and that would help bring thunderstorm chances to an end.

Monday through Wednesday – We should dry out a bit.  Thunderstorm chances will diminish.

 

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals.  This is no secret to all of you who are farmers.  Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground.  Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.

Rainfall totals on Saturday will vary greatly over the region.  Between Friday night and Sunday everyone should pick up some measurable rainfall.   Most areas will pick up 0.50″-1.00″ with pockets of greater than 1″ likely in the heavier thunderstorms.  Same as the last few weeks.

I pulled the number back just a bit because coverage on Sunday might not be as great.

The map below, from weatherbell.com, shows you the official NOAA rainfall forecast numbers through Monday.  You can see widespread rain in our region.  They have painted widespread 0.75″-1.80″

Broad brushed, but you get the general idea.  The bulk of this should fall on Friday night into Saturday night (May 29th and May 30th)

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This section of the blog is speculative forecast information.  Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation.  Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.

Highlights
1.  Cold front pushes southward and gives us a bit cooler and drier air

Most of the data over the last week has been split as to what would happen to a cold front moving into our region over this coming weekend.

The new data keeps pushing the front further and further south.  This is great news for giving us at least somewhat of a break from the shower and thunderstorm chances on Monday into the middle of next week.

Assuming the front does push south then we can expect the first half of next week to bring drier and a bit cooler air.  That also means the atmosphere will be a bit more stable.  Let’s hope this is all true.  We need a break for farmers to finish some work in the fields.

Temperatures will start to edge up again towards next Thursday into the weekend.  That means a few showers again, as well.

Tuesday High Temperatures

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Wednesday High Temperatures

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Thursday High Temperatures

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

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Regional Radar

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I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

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Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.

I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.

Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement.  Click your county to view the latest information.

Missouri Warnings

Illinois Warnings

Kentucky Warnings

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.  Just need to finish two Spanish classes!

I am a member of the American Meteorological Society.  I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.  And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

 

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog

 

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