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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tonight – Mostly clear with some fog possible. Cool. Lows in the 40’s. Light to calm winds.
Friday – Morning fog will mix out. Then becoming mostly sunny, but some increase in clouds possible towards late afternoon. A nice spring day! Camping weather with a fire. It will be on the cool side. Temperatures only in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Variable winds as a boundary will be near the region. Winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Friday night – A nice night for camping. Cool temperatures. Campfire might be needed. A few clouds. Lows in the 50’s with variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Saturday – A nice spring day. Great for camping. Partly sunny. It will be a bit warmer. Highs in the 70’s with easterly winds at 10 mph. Winds may be out of the southeast at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
It’s the weekend and here we go again. Why does this come to mind? Rain again? Will it or won’t it rain on my outdoor event?
Saturday night – Increasing clouds through the night. Milder and a bit more humid. Small chance for a late night shower or thunderstorm over western parts of southeast Missouri and northwest Illinois. 30% chance. Lows will be in the upper 50’s to around 60 degrees. Southeast winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Sunday – Morning clouds and then partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially over southeast Missouri. A 40%-60% chance over western counties and then a 40% chance for southern Illinois and western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee. High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Gusty southerly winds at 10-20 mph. There will be more clouds over the western half of the region and perhaps best chances of precipitation will be western counties vs eastern counties (see my orange county forecast map on the right side of the page). Either way…a chance for some scattered showers and storms. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds with the heaviest cells. Small hail possible. Widespread or organized severe weather is not in the forecast.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low for southern Illinois and western Kentucky and medium for western counties (southeast Missouri up towards Randolph County, Illinois)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunday night and Monday – Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60’s and highs in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Gusty winds from the south at 10-25 mph. Probability of precipitation will range from 60% on Sunday night to 60% on Monday. Lower than normal confidence on the % chances.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be some storms in the region. Have a plan B
Monday night – Showers and some thunderstorms possible.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Welcome to the weekend! Mild temperatures into Saturday.
2. Boaters need to monitor wind forecasts for Sunday and Monday. Some gusty winds possible.
3. Showers and thunderstorm chances increase on Sunday and Monday. Locally heavy rain likely. Same as the last few weekends.
Now this is something you do not see every day. On this mornings visible satellite image there was a face over Illinois. This is the raw image. Pretty cool! Click to enlarge the image.
That is almost a work of art!
Beautiful weather will greet you for Friday and Saturday.
My only concern for Friday will be some morning fog. I can’t rule out patchy dense fog in spots. Perhaps just give yourself a little more time in the morning…if fog does develop.
It will be very cool for late May. Temperatures on Friday morning will dip into the 40’s.
It could be worse. Check out these Saturday morning forecast lows for the northeast. Killing freeze possible in some areas. I guess we can be thankful for our 40’s.
We will start to see some weather changes over the weekend. Our cool temperatures will erode away as southwest flow develops at the surface and aloft.
When the winds turn to the southwest in the spring and summer months you can expect an increase in moisture and an increase in temperatures. We will see both.
Let me show you an example of the dramatic changes.
The Friday morning dew point map shows very dry and cool air over our region. Dew points into the 40’s! That is amazing for this time of the year. A very dry air mass. Dew points are what meteorologists use to determine how much moisture is in the atmosphere. Similar to humidity, but a better way of measuring it.
Here is the Friday morning map from wright-weather
And then by Sunday. See the big difference? A large warm/moist air mass will move into the region over the weekend. By Sunday and Monday you will definitely feel the difference.
Temperatures will also be on the rise. You can expect some 80’s by Sunday and Monday.
Let’s take a look at the high temperature forecast. I did increase Friday’s high temperatures by a few more degrees. Perhaps more 70’s than 60’s in the region.
Friday’s High Temperature Map
Saturday’s High Temperature Map
Sunday’s High Temperature Map
Monday’s High Temperature Map
With the increase in temperatures and moisture will come a chance for some showers and thunderstorms.
The BIG question is timing and coverage. Unfortunately this is not a cold front sweeping through the area with one band of showers and thunderstorms. This is a broad area of warm and moist air moving back into the region with small ripples of disturbances that will move through the jet stream flow. This is exactly what has happened for multiple weekends over the last two months.
I personally do not like forecasting this type of pattern. Why? Because I can’t make you any promises on rain chances at your outdoor events.
Here are some maps that show you the disturbances. The hatched and colored areas are lift and where rain is likely to occur. One area moves in on Sunday morning and additional lift on Sunday night and Monday.
Images are from wright-weather.com
The dark hatched area over our local counties represent lift and high humidity. Decent chance of precipitation with this wave.
Here is another one on Sunday night. Bright colors indicate a very good chance of precipitation
It will definitely rain in the region on Sunday and Monday. There will be scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms on radar. The timing and coverage remain a question. Hoping to iron that out a bit more by Saturday’s update. Severe weather risk appears minimal. Of course you can always have a thunderstorm pulse up and produce gusty winds and even small hail.
Bottom line…if you have outdoor events on Sunday into Monday night then monitor updates and have a plan B. The plan B might come in handy. I would not cancel anything.
Another issue will be gusty winds on area lakes and rivers on both Sunday and Monday. Monday in particular. Expect some gusts above 20 mph. Monday could see 30 mph wind gusts. Keep this in mind.
Here is the GFS forecast for wind speeds on Sunday afternoon and Monday. These are in knots.
Images from wright-weather.com. Click image for a larger view
Monday afternoon
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Some morning fog on Friday.
Otherwise, no major concerns for Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday and Monday. Gusty winds on Sunday and Monday for boaters.
Morning fog on Friday…in spots.
Otherwise, Friday and Saturday will require no action. A jacket? Campers might need that camp fire with an extra log on it.
Umbrellas will be needed by Sunday and Monday. Hopefully not an all day rain. At least scattered periods of showers and thunderstorms. Lightning and gusty winds are a concern. Locally heavy rain. Same as the last few weekends. Rinse and repeat seems to be the pattern. Sorry about that!
Gusty winds on Sunday and Monday. Boaters should monitor updated forecasts.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in the forecast will be whether a few showers and thunderstorms slip into our far west and northwest counties on Saturday night. Better chances arrive on Sunday and Monday. Locally heavy rain is a good bet.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Friday and Saturday. Saturday night into Monday the thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE. I will monitor the chances for a few storms to pulse up to near severe levels. Right now the concerns are small.
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible. More likely Sunday night. But some thunder possible during the day on Sunday.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms likely. Monitor updates.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms may linger
Thunderstorm outlook for Friday night into Saturday evening will be a ZERO
Thunderstorm outlook for late Saturday night into Monday night will be a ONE
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Another rainfall event is likely Sunday into Tuesday. Once again some places will pick up 1-3″ of rain and other spots will receive less than 1″. Same pattern we have been in for over a month now. Tough call on rainfall totals.
For now, it appears the entire region will pick up around 0.50″-0.75″ of rain. But, much higher totals WILL occur with this event. Same as the last two events.
Official rainfall forecast graphic through Tuesday night from weatherbell.com
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Looking ahead to the middle and end of next week
2. Unsettled look to the models into the middle of June
I have been forecasting May into June to bring wet conditions. I am thinking above normal precipitation over the coming weeks. Summer, as a whole, I am expecting to be wetter than normal.
We will be playing tug of war with the southeast heat ridge and the central U.S. and western U.S. trough. That means we will flirt with the heat from time to time. Especially true for our eastern and southeastern counties.
The charts look unsettled for the next 2-3 weeks with several chances of showers and thunderstorms.
It does appear precipitation chances are going to linger into at least Tuesday. Our eventual warm and muggy air mass may stick with us most of next week. If that happens then expect periodic changes for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
