Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 9th and 10th: Unsettled and turning colder. HARD freeze.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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March 9, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could produce hail and gusty winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.  Lightning.  Hail possible.  Isolated reports of damaging winds will be possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Yes.  There could be some severe storms.  The main concern would be hail.  A second concern would be high winds.  Not anticipating an outbreak of severe storms, but I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorm warnings.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 80%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Becoming numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have alternative plans.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 38 to 45   IL ~ 38 to 45    KY ~ 40 to 44     TN ~ 40 to 44
Winds: south winds at 5 to 10 mph becoming north at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 3:11 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:21 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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March 10, 2017Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
Increasing clouds.  Rain and snow developing from northwest to southeast. If temperatures fall into the 20’s then be careful on bridges.  Road temperatures are warm, but bridges can freeze faster than most road surfaces.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.  Watch bridges if temperatures fall into the 20’s.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None early and then increasing chances as we move towards morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 26 to 32  IL ~ 26 to 32    KY ~ 26 to 32   TN ~ 26 to 32
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 20 to 25
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  Yes.  Some snow possible late Friday night.
Moonrise will be at 4:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:03 a.m. Waxing Gibbous


Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds.  A chance for rain or snow late.  Precipitation will move in from the north and west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None early and then increasing chances as we move towards morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 36 to 42   IL ~ 36 to 42    KY ~ 36 to 42     TN ~ 36 to 42
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  Can’t rule out some snow
Moonrise will be at 4:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:03 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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March 11, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain, sleet, and snow likely.  I can’t rule out some lightning strikes (but that is highly dependent on VV’s).  Some slushy snow and snow/sleet accumulation is possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Snow is possible.  I can’t rule out some slushy accumulation of snow.  Perhaps some lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 90%  IL ~ 80%   KY ~ 80%   TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 30 to 36   IL ~  30 to 36    KY ~ 30 to 36    TN ~ 30 to 36
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 25 to 32
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  Yes
Sunrise will be at 6:09 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:59 p.m.
UV Index
: 0
Moonrise 
will be at 5:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Hard freeze.  Cloudy early with snow or rain showers coming to an end.  Clearing and cold.  Some slick spots possible as temps fall into the 20’s.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Hard freeze.  Wet roadways possible.  Icy roads possible as temperatures fall.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%  Ending from NW to SE.
Coverage of precipitation
:  Ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 22 to 26   IL ~ 22 to 26    KY ~ 22 to 26     TN ~ 22 to 26
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  Snow and sleet ending early.  Watch for slick spots as temperatures fall.
Moonrise will be at 5:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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March 12, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mix of sun and clouds.  Cool.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning icy roads are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 36 to 43    IL ~ 36 to 43    KY ~ 36 to 43     TN ~ 36 to 43
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:59 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 7:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:17 a.m. Full Moon

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Cold.  A hard freeze is again possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Hard freeze likely.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none.   I will be monitoring another system for Monday.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 24 to 28   IL ~ 24 to 28    KY ~ 24 to 28     TN ~ 24 to 28
Winds:  Northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 7:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:17 a.m. Full Moon

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March 13, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A chance for rain or rain/snow showers.  No accumulation expected.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 42 to 46   IL ~ 42 to 46    KY ~ 42 to 46    TN ~ 42 to 46
Winds:  West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  Snow showers possible.
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:00 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2
Moonrise 
will be at 8:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:50 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Cold.  Freeze likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Freeze likely.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none.   I will be monitoring another system for Monday.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 25 to 30   IL ~ 25 to 30    KY ~ 25 to 30     TN ~ 25 to 30
Winds:  North and northwest at 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 8:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:50 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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March 14, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny and cool.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 45 to 50   IL ~ 45 to 50    KY ~ 45 to 50    TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  North at 5
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 7:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:01 p.m.
UV Index
: 4 to 6
Moonrise 
will be at 9:12 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and cold.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Freeze likely.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 25 to 30   IL ~ 25 to 30    KY ~ 25 to 30     TN ~ 25 to 30
Winds:  North at 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 9:12 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous

 

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Analysis

Thursday night
Confidence:  Medium to high

Thunderstorms will form Thursday afternoon and evening.  The storms will push south and southeast through the region.  A few of the storms could produce hail, high winds, heavy rain, lightning, and a small tornado risk.

The greatest risk zone will likely remain over southern Missouri, but extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee will also need to be monitored.

Locally heavy downpours are a possibility.

The showers and storms will end by late Thursday night.  This will leave us with partly cloudy sky conditions and cool temperatures.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Here is the future-cast radar for this evening and tonight.

Thursday at 6 PM (remember this is a models opinion on what radar might look like)

Future-cast radar from the HRRR model guidance

Thursday at 8 PM

Future-cast radar

This last one is for 10 PM

Future-cast radar from HRRR guidance

Weekend system:
Confidence:  High that there will be precipitation
Confidence:  Low on the impacts of that precipitation and amounts

Friday will be dry and cool.  Nothing extreme.

Clouds increase by Friday night.  Snow, sleet, and rain will develop over Missouri and Illinois and spread south and east into early Saturday morning.

Precipitation should cover most of the area on Saturday.  A mixture of rain, sleet, and snow is anticipated.

The focus, for me at least, is not on snow.  The focus is on a devastating freeze for area orchards.  The snow is just a novelty side conversation.  The impact, from this event, is the cold.  That is why I keep telling people to stop focusing on the potential for some snow.

Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM model guidance

There is more than one version, from the model data, as to how the precipitation might unfold.

This first set is the higher resolution 4K NAM

This next image is for

This next image is for

This next image is for

This next image is for 6 pm on Saturday

The lower resolution NAM shows this is for 6 am on Saturday

Blue is snow.  Purple is sleet.  Green is rain.

This next image is for 9 am on Saturday.  Again, the lower resolution NAM shows more precip than the higher resolution NAM.

The uplift is stronger on the NAM than GFS.  The higher UVV’s would support lightning, but only if the higher UVV’s verify.

This next image is for 3 pm on Saturday

Limiting factors for snow accumulation

  1. It is March and ground temperatures are warm.  Temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s
  2. The snow will fall during the daylight hours with a higher sun angle than say January or early February.
  3. Warm road conditions
  4. Temperatures, while the snow is falling, will be in the 31 to 34 degree range.  It is possible that temperatures will be above freezing while snow or sleet is falling.

Uncertainties:

The models have semi-settled on a track, but there remain differences.  I feel confident that our region will experience precipitation on Saturday into Saturday evening.  Snow and sleet appear likely.  Perhaps rain over our far southern counties (Bootheel and west Tennessee).  It is possible the system tracks far enough south that even the Bootheel and Tennessee experience snow and sleet.  By Saturday evening the precipitation likely will have changed over to frozen precipitation even in our southern counties.

With all the negative and limiting factors for accumulating snow, it will likely be difficult for significant accumulations.  I can’t rule out 1 to 3 inches of a slushy snow on some surfaces.  Roads, during the day on Saturday, would like remain okay.  Bridges would need to be monitored.

It may not accumulate at all.  This really does come down to snow rate.

For significant snow to occur, the snow rate (how fast and heavy the snow falls) would have to be extreme.  That seems unlikely.

I have two other concerns.

Temperatures on Saturday night should dip into the twenties.  If the roads have moisture on them, then they could become icy.  Especially true for bridges and overpasses.

My biggest concern is the potential for a long duration hard freeze.  Sadly, this will likely be a devastating freeze for many.  Fruit tree buds will likely not survive 7+ hours with temperatures in the twenties.  This does appear likely on Saturday night.  This is especially true IF there is a blanket of snow.  If we have a blanket of snow then temperatures in the lower to middle 20’s will likely occur.  Without a blanket of snow then middle to upper 20’s will likely be the end result.

Temperatures on Sunday night might also dip into the twenties.

Monday and Tuesday:

A couple of weak systems will move through the region.  Some light rain or snow again possible.  Not anticipating anything significant.  Cold weather will linger into mid-week.  Temperatures will likely fall into the 20’s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday night.

 

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Here is the official NOAA rainfall prediction

This map is for the Thursday night precipitation event.

Higher totals are possible in thunderstorms

If you were add in the weekend precipitation chances and the system early next week, then you would come up with these totals

We will have to monitor the weekend into early next week.  There remains some question on precipitation totals.

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Friday low temperature forecast

Friday afternoon high temperature forecast

Saturday low temperature forecast

Saturday high temperature forecast

 

whatamiconcered

Thunderstorms on Thursday night could produce hail, high winds, and an isolated/small tornado risk.  Hail is the main concern.  Lightning, as well.  Storms will be moving W NW to E SE.  Storms should end after midnight.

A major/hard freeze is forecast Saturday night, Sunday night, Monday night, and possibly Tuesday night.  Not good news for orchards.

Snow and sleet are possible Saturday and again perhaps on Monday.  Some accumulation of snow is possible, but with warm ground conditions it probably won’t amount to much.

Slick spots are possible Saturday night as temperatures fall into the 20’s.

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday night:  Thunderstorms are possible.  A few storms could be intense over southern Missouri into the Missouri Bootheel.  Some of the storms will likely produce hail.  Strong winds can’t be ruled out with a few storms, as well.  Monitor updates.

Friday into Wednesday:  Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

 

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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