Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 9, 2019: A stormy day ahead of us.

5 PM

All severe weather concerns have ended.

2 PM

No change.

Highly conditional risk.

Clouds and rain have kept the atmosphere fairly stable.

I do not see a large threat.

Continue to monitor updates.

 

12:15 PM

No changes.

The risk continues to be highly conditional.  The atmosphere has stabilized because of the morning rain and clouds.

I am closely watching storms moving out of northeast Arkansas.  Those storms could become severe.

The northeast Arkansas storms may end up being the main concern.

The warm front continues to move northward through the region.  It is warm and humid south of the front.  Strong and gusty gradient winds are being reported.

Gradient winds develop because of a tight barometric pressure gradient.

Continue to monitor updates.

I have been sending out app messages to a few counties.

The warm front can be seen on this surface map.  It is the red line with ovals.  It is moving north.

 

 

Notice the dew points (moisture) increases south of the front.  Gusty winds, as well.

Dew points

Wind gusts

 

10:45 AM

Tornado watch in pink through the afternoon.

 

Dave Reynolds posted this photo of hail.  This was near Marion, IL earlier this morning.

 

10 AM update (see below for the previous update)
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I will be sending out app messages for severe storms, hail, and tornadoes.

Make sure you turn on WeatherOne. Do that by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account. Click personal notification settings. Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

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Thunderstorms will continue to push through the region into the afternoon hours.

Some of these storms could become severe. There is a lot of wind shear today. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Remember, a warning means to seek shelter.

Storm tracking links

Subscribe to WeatherTalk at www.weathertalk.com

Radars
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Lightning
http://www.lightningmaps.org/…;

Regional radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Watches/warnings
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/SevereAlerts.png

Dew points
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/CurrentDewpoints.png

 

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

  1. Go to today’s forecast
  2. Go to the winter storm and severe weather outlook
  3. Go to the weather forecast discussion
  4. Go to the model future-cast radars
  5. Go to videos
  6. Go to weeks one, two, three, and four temperature and precipitation graphics
  7. Go to Weatherbrains
  8. View some of our charity work.  Your subscription dollars help support these causes.

Do you have questions or suggestions?  If so, please email me.  Beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

My regular detailed text forecast can be found below these graphics.

My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Missouri

 

 

Illinois

 

 

 

Kentucky

 

 

 

 

Tennessee

 

  1.   The topic discussion today is the risk of severe thunderstorms.
  2.   Dry Sunday and Monday.
  3.   Rain chances return Tuesday into Wednesday night.  Main focus may end up being Wednesday.

 

Today: Yes.  There is a conditional risk of severe weather.  There remain questions about whether the atmosphere can recharge.  Morning rain and clouds may help keep instability low.
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Tomorrow:  No.

 

Confidence rating explained.

  • High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
  • Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
  • Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

 

Today through  Monday night.

  1.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.
  2.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.
  3.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  Yes.  Some storms could produce hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.  It is a conditional risk.  If the atmosphere can recharge after the morning clouds and rain then severe weather is likely.  If it does not recharge then there will be little or no severe weather.  Monitor updates.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast?  Monitor.  Heavy rain is possible Saturday.   General river flooding, however, will continue.

 

Tuesday through next Friday the 15th  

  1. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No. 
  2. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.
  3. Is severe weather in the forecast?  Monitor.  I am monitoring Wednesday and Thursday for strong storms.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Not at this time.  I am monitoring next Wednesday.  Locally heavy rain is possible.  General river flooding will continue.

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here

 

 

March 9, 2019

 

I will be sending out severe weather app/text (please use the app since Verizon and ATT are throttling texts) messages.  The app receives the messages instantly.  You can find the app under Beau Dodson Weather in the app store.  Subscribe to those at www.weathertalk.com

Saturday’s Forecast:  Strong and gusty gradient winds will occur Saturday. Gusts above 40 mph are possible. Gradient winds develop when isobars (equal lines of barometric pressure) are tightly packed together.   Showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy downpours are possible.  Monitor the risk of a few strong storms.  Windy.  A few storms could produce hail.  Severe storms are possible if the atmosphere can recharge after the morning precipitation.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  63° to 66°     SE MO  56° to 64°     South IL  56° to 64°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  56° to 62°    West KY  62° to 65°     NW TN  63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  East and southeast 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  90%     MO  90%     IL   90%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  90%     Western KY  90%    NW TN  90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  A few hail reports are possible.  Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise:   6:15 AM

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Saturday night Forecast:  Any remaining showers and storms will come to an end.  Breezy.  Becoming partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  38° to 44°     SE MO  36° to 38°     South IL  34° to 36°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  38° to 42°    West KY  38° to 44°     NW TN  40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:   Southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%      Southeast MO   20%      Southern IL   30%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30%     Western KY  30%      NW TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways early in the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would not cancel.  I would monitor updates and radars.
Sunset:   5:57 PM
Moonrise:   8:03 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  8:53 PM

 

 

March 10, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast
:  Intervals of clouds.  Breezy early in the day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  53° to 56°     SE MO  53° to 56°     South IL  52° to 54°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  52° to 54°    West KY  52° to 54°     NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed:  West and northwest at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 4 Medium
Sunrise:   7:15 AM

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Sunday night Forecast:  Some increase in clouds.  Cool.  A slight chance of a sprinkle along the MO/AR and KY/TN State line.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  36° to 40°     SE MO  30° to 35°     South IL  28° to 34°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  32° to 34°    West KY  34° to 38°     NW TN  36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:   North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  10%      Southeast MO   10%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  10%      NW TN   20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   6:58 PM
Moonrise:   9:32 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  10:52 PM

 

 

March 11, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Intervals of clouds.  A slight chance of a sprinkle along the MO/AR and KY/TN State line.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  55° to 60°     SE MO  52° to 54°     South IL  52° to 54°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  53° to 56°    West KY  53° to 56°     NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%     MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  10%    NW TN  20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 4 Medium
Sunrise:

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Monday night Forecast:  Some increase in clouds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  36° to 40°     SE MO  30° to 34°     South IL  30° to 34°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  32° to 34°    West KY  33° to 36°     NW TN  34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:   North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   0%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:
Moonrise:
The phase of the moon:
Moonset:

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Tuesday:  Cloudy with showers possible Tuesday.  Showers likely Tuesday night.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows in the 40’s.

Wednesday:  Showers and thunderstorms are likely.  Highs in the 60’s.  Lows in the 50’s.

Thursday:  Showers are again possible.  Highs in the 60’s.  Lows in the 40’s.

 

Wind forecast

Strong and gusty southerly winds today.  Gusts above 40 mph are likely.

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today and tomorrow:  There is a conditional severe weather risk today.  What does conditional mean?  Same as two weeks ago.  If CAPE (energy for storms to tap into) does not develop then we won’t have severe weather.

If, however, the atmosphere can destabilize then all modes of severe weather will be possible.  That includes damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes.  The risk is conditional.

Remember, a watch means to monitor updates.  A warning means to seek shelter.  Warning trumps watch.  A warning means severe weather may be imminent.

I will be sending out severe weather app/text (please use the app since Verizon and ATT are throttling texts) messages.  The app receives the messages instantly.  You can find the app under Beau Dodson Weather in the app store.  Subscribe to those at www.weathertalk.com

Sunday through Friday:  Lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.  I am monitoring another chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com  Click the personal notification settings tab.  Turn on WeatherOne.  Green is on.  Red is off.

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Friday through next Wednesday:  No accumulating snow or ice.

 

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

 

48-hour precipitation outlook.

 

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast.  This includes day one through seven.

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?  Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

 

 

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here..

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.  Click here.

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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  1.  The topic today is severe weather.
  2.  Dry Sunday and Monday.
  3.  Rain chances increase Tuesday into Thursday.

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No significant changes in the going forecast.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Severe thunderstorms may develop today.  Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.  This is a conditional severe thunderstorm risk.  What does conditional mean?  Same as two weeks ago.  If CAPE (energy for storms to tap into) does not develop then we won’t have severe weather.  Two weeks ago we were in a significant risk of severe weather but nothing developed.  Why?  The atmosphere was not able to recharge after the morning rain and clouds.  Rain and clouds help stabilize the atmosphere.

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

 

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

 

Forecast discussion.

A messy forecast with quite a bit of uncertainty.

We have ongoing showers and thunderstorms on radar this morning.  A few of those storms have produced hail.  Heavy rain has also been occurring.

We have a line of thunderstorms well to our west.  That line stretches from central Missouri into Arkansas.

Most of the morning data shows this line of thunderstorms continuning to push eastward.  Model guidance wants to intensify the line as it moves across our region.

Yesterday, the guidance was showing the line moving east and new storms forming ahead of the cold front.

That is not the case today.

This raises a lot of questions about how great of severe weather risk we will have.

A warm front is moving northward into our region.  Dew points (a measure of moisture in the atmosphere) are going to rise into the 50’s and 60’s over the next few hours.

I typically look for dew points at or above 58 degrees when forecasting severe weather.

Clouds and ongoing rain will make it difficult for CAPE to develop.  CAPE is a measure of instability/energy that storms can tap into.  If we do not have surface CAPE then we will likely experience a limited severe weather risk.

If surface CAPE does develop then damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes are possible.

Every forecaster is struggling with today’s outlook.  The Storm Prediction Center has said they are not sure if the atmosphere will become unstable enough to produce higher end severe weather.

The bottom line is to monitor updates.  If a watch is issued then monitor updates.  If a warning is issued then seek shelter until the storm exits.

 


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Model Future-cast Radars.  What the models believe the radar may look like.

Let’s take a look model guidance future-cast radar.

Timestamp upper left.

I will be sending out severe weather app/text messages (please use the app since Verizon and ATT are throttling texts).  The app receives the messages instantly.  You can find the app under Beau Dodson Weather in the app store.  Subscribe to those at www.weathertalk.com

I want you to notice something.

Yesterday, the models showed a morning line of showers and storms passing through the region and then new storms developing behind it.

That is not the case today.  The models now show the main line to our west being the main line later today.

Why does this matter?

It matters because this raises questions about whether or not we will see much in the way of severe weather.

The models showed supercells forming behind the main line of storms (when I say the main line I am talking about the line that you see on the radar this morning).

It appears that may not happen.  What may happen is the line to our west becomes the main event.  How that impacts the severe weather risk will need to be monitored.

This is very much a conditional severe weather risk.  It may be all or nothing.  Meaning quite a bit of severe weather or none.

HRW WRF model

NAM model

Hrrr model

 

River Flooding To Continue

River flooding is going to continue through the week.  I know many of you are having flooding issues.

Speaking of flooding, here are some links to help you track the crest numbers.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

 

Current conditions.

 

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

 

 

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VIDEO UPDATES
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

I have the BAMwx team help with videos.

Sometimes there video may not agree with my thinking.

Keep that in mind.  My forecast thoughts are above.

The Ohio Valley video

 

 


Long-range This video.

 

 

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This video will be updated on Monday

The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)

 

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these.  They may not always agree **

The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.

Days six through ten temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

 

 

Days six through ten precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

 

Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

NAT_TemperatureOutlook_8-14Day.png (1920×1080)

 

Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.  These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 8th through March 14th 

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

 

 

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers  March 15th through the 21st

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″

This outlook covers March 22nd through April 4th 

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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March temperature and precipitation outlook

 

April temperature and precipitation outlook

 

May temperature and precipitation outlook

 

Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

 

Temperature outlook

 

Precipitation outlook

 

Even if your account has expired you WOULD still receive app/text messages.  I have to manually stop them even if your payment method has expired.

Log into your account at this link www.weathertalk.com

Have questions?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Thank you.

 

Not receiving app/text messages?

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  2.  USE THE APP.  Verizon and ATT have been throttling text messages.  The app receives the same messages instantly.  Texts can take longer.  Please, use the app.  It is under Beau Dodson Weather in the app stores.
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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 685
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Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz, an on-air broadcast meteorologist at WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, PA.  In addition, also joining us from WCAU-TV is on-air broadcast meteorologist Steven Sosna.  Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Also joining us is the Chief scientist/SOO at the National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL.  Kevin Laws, welcome to the show!

Last but not least, Joel Housman is joining us this week to celebrate National Weather Podcast Month.  Hailing from Washington DC, he runs Ice Station Housman and is a weather enthusiast.  Welcome to the show, Joel!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • 23 killed in EF4 Lee County, Alabama tornado on 3/3
  • National Weather Podcast Month
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • National Weather round-up
  • and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

Find Beau on Facebook!  Click the banner.

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Find Beau on Twitter!   Share your weather photos!  @beaudodson

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