Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 7, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

 

 

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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

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My regular detailed text forecast can be found below these graphics.

My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.

 

Missouri

 

 

Illinois

 

 

 

Kentucky

 

 

 

 

Tennessee

 

  1. A few rain and snow showers this morning turning to all rain.  Scattered (mainly north and northeast)
  2.   Showers are in the forecast into Saturday.
  3.   Locally heavy rain possible Saturday.
  4.   Monitoring the risk of a strong thunderstorm Saturday.
  5.   Most likely dry Sunday and Monday.
  6.   More rain chances the middle of next week.

 

Today: No
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Tomorrow:  No

 

Confidence rating explained.

  • High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
  • Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
  • Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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Today through Thursday night.

  1.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  Unlikely.  There is a chance of sleet or wet snow Thursday morning and again Thursday night. No accumulation anticipated, at this time.  I will keep an eye on the northern portions of southeast Illinois tonight where temperatures will be near freezing.
  2.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible Friday night and Saturday.
  3.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  Monitor.  Strong storms can’t be ruled out on Saturday.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast?  Monitor.  Heavy rain is possible Saturday.   General river flooding, however, will continue.

 

Friday through next Thursday the 14th

  1. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No. 
  2. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.
  3. Is severe weather in the forecast?  Monitor.  I am monitoring Wednesday for strong storms.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Not at this time.  I am monitoring next Wednesday.  Locally heavy rain is possible.  General river flooding will continue.

 

 

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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March 7, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast:  A chance of light snow this morning near Mt Vernon southeast towards Owensboro.  Any snow showers would become rain showers as temperatures climb.  Cloudy.  A  slight chance of a shower over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  46° to 50°     SE MO  46° to 48°     South IL  44° to 48°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  43° to 45°    West KY  46° to 48°     NW TN  46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%     MO  20%     IL   30%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30%     Western KY  10%    NW TN  10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered this morning from Mt Vernon, IL towards northwest KY.  Otherwise, isolated.  The best chance would be from Poplar Bluff to Farmington, MO.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None for most areas.  I am monitoring a band of snow that will push northwest to southeast across portions of the region.  That would mainly be northern parts of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise:   6:18 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain.  Rain may be mixed with sleet or snow across the northern half of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois.  At this time, it appears that it will be too warm for any travel impacts.  I will keep an eye on the northern portions of southeast Illinois tonight where temperatures will be near freezing.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  38° to 40°     SE MO  34° to 36°     South IL  33° to 36°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  33° to 36°    West KY  38° to 42°     NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  90%      Southeast MO   90%      Southern IL   90%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  90%     Western KY  90%      NW TN   90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  I will keep an eye on the northern portions of southeast Illinois tonight where temperatures will be near freezing.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Monitor radars
Sunset:   5:55PM
Moonrise:   7:307AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  6:58 PM

 

 

March 8, 2019
Friday’s Forecast
:

Cloudy.  Morning showers.  A few afternoon showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  53° to 55°     SE MO  48° to 54°     South IL  46° to 50°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  48° to 52°    West KY  50° to 54°     NW TN  53° to 55°
Wind direction and speed:  Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  60%     MO  50%     IL   50%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60%     Western KY  60%    NW TN  70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Monitor radars.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise:   6:17 AM

Friday night Forecast: Cloudy.  Scattered showers redeveloping, especially late at night.   Greatest chances will be over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  42° to 44°     SE MO  36° to 40°     South IL  36° to 42°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  38° to 42°    West KY  38° to 44°     NW TN  44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  40%      Southeast MO   40%      Southern IL   20%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  20%      NW TN   20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would not cancel.  I would monitor updates and radars.
Sunset:   5:56 PM
Moonrise:   7:35 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  7:55 PM

 

 

March 9, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast
:   Showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy downpours are possible.  Monitor the risk of a few strong storms.  Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  63° to 66°     SE MO  56° to 64°     South IL  56° to 64°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60° to 64°    West KY  62° to 66°     NW TN  63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  East and southeast 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  90%     MO  90%     IL   90%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  90%     Western KY  90%    NW TN  90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Monitor the risk of strong storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise:   6:15 AM

Saturday night Forecast:  Any remaining showers and storms will come to an end.  Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  38° to 44°     SE MO  36° to 38°     South IL  34° to 36°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  38° to 42°    West KY  38° to 44°     NW TN  40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:   Southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%      Southeast MO   20%      Southern IL   30%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  40%     Western KY  30%      NW TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would not cancel.  I would monitor updates and radars.
Sunset:   5:57 PM
Moonrise:   8:03 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  8:53 PM

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Sunday:  Partly cloudy.  Mostly clear Sunday night.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows in the 30’s.

Monday:  Mostly sunny.  Increasing clouds Monday night.  Highs in the mid 40’s to lower 50’s.  Lows in the 30’s.

Tuesday:  Increasing clouds.  Showers possible Tuesday night.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows in the 40’s.

 

Wind forecast

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today and tomorrow:  No severe weather concerns.

Saturday through Monday:  I am monitoring Saturday.  Thunderstorms are possible.  A few storms could be intense.  Monitor updates.

 

 

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Thursday through next WednesdayA few snow showers in the region this morning.  Most likely northern parts of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Those will change to rain showers as temperatures rise.

Widespread rain tonight.    Rain may be mixed with snow or sleet over our northern counties tonight.  That would be the northern half of southeast Missouri and the northern half of southern Illinois.  No accumulation.  This would again mainly be over our northern counties.  Otherwise, no other winter weather concerns.

I will keep an eye on the northern portions of southeast Illinois tonight where temperatures will be near freezing.

 

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

 

48-hour precipitation outlook.

 

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast.  This includes day one through seven.

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?  Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

 

 

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here..

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.  Click here.

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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  1.  Rain chances increasing.  Moderating temperatures.
  2.  Thunderstorms likely Saturday.  Some heavy downpours are possible.

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I made small adjustments to the temperatures.

I also added this morning’s snow shower chances for portions of the area.

I did mention perhaps a non-accumulating mix tonight for some of our colder counties (north).

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Monitor Saturday’s forecast.  Some locally heavy rain is possible.  I am monitoring the risk of a few strong storms, as well.

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

 

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Forecast discussion.

 

The big weather story continues to be increasing rain chances.

Two systems will impact the region.

One will bring some light showers to the area this morning.  Mainly our far northern counties.  A few snow showers are also possible near Mt Vernon southeast towards Owensboro, Kentucky.

Rain showers will increase tonight.  The good news is that rain totals tonight will be on the light side.  Generally, less than 0.35″.  A few areas may achieve slightly higher totals.  That would mainly be across the Missouri Bootheel into and along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line and then southward.

It may be just cold enough tonight for an occasional mix of rain, snow, and sleet from Bollinger County, Missouri northeast towards Carmi, Illinois  No accumulation or travel impacts.

Rain showers will decrease in coverage as we move through Friday.  A few scattered showers may remain Friday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will dramatically increase late Friday night and especially on Saturday.

A cold front will sweep west to east across the region.  Gusty winds will accompany the system, as well.

Some of the Saturday showers and storms could produce moderate to locally heavy downpours.  Lightning is also a good possibility.

Rain totals may exceed an inch in some locations.

There are some ingredients coming together for severe weather.  There are some missing ingredients, as well.  For now, I am simply monitoring the trends in guidance.  It is too soon to forecast severe thunderstorms.  Monitor updates.

The main time-frame of concern would be 11 AM Saturday through 5 PM Saturday.  The atmosphere will be most unstable in Kentucky and Tennessee.  Less unstable as you move north and west.

I typically look for dew points above 58 degrees when forecasting severe storms.

The NAM does show dew points reaching above that number.  Close.

 

 

I also look for surface based CAPE when forecasting severe weather.  CAPE is energy for thunderstorms to tap into.  CAPE numbers during the winter months don’t have to be all that great in order to consider the risk of a few severe thunderstorms.

You typically need some sunshine in order to see the CAPE numbers build.  If we have widespread clouds and showers then that cuts down on surface CAPE.

YOu can see on this animation that a little bit of CAPE develops late Saturday morning and afternoon

 

 

I will keep an eye on trends.

Typically, we don’t know for sure if severe storms will occur until the morning of an event.  There are so many fine details that are involved.

We dry out Saturday night and Sunday.

Another system will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms back to the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Locally heavy rain will again be possible.  I will monitor the risk of strong storms with that system, as well.

Rain totals between now and next Wednesday night will likely range from one to two inches.  Locally higher amounts are possible.

 

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com  Click the personal notification settings tab.  Turn on WeatherOne.  Green is on.  Red is off.

 


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Model Future-cast Radars.  What the models believe the radar may look like.

 

Here is the NAM future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Red represents ice.  Blue is snow.

The timestamp is located in the upper left.

A few rain and snow showers are possible this morning.  The main rain event will be tonight and then Friday night and Saturday.

 

 

 

River Flooding To Continue

River flooding is going to continue through the week.  I know many of you are having flooding issues.

Speaking of flooding, here are some links to help you track the crest numbers.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

 

Current conditions.

 

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

 

 

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VIDEO UPDATES
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

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The Ohio Valley video

 

 

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Long-range This video.

 

 

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The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)

 

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these.  They may not always agree **

The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.

Days six through ten temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

 

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Days six through ten precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

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Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.  These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers  March 11th through the 18th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″

This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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March temperature and precipitation outlook

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April temperature and precipitation outlook

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

 

Temperature outlook

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Precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
.1

 

WeatherBrains Episode 685

 

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz, an on-air broadcast meteorologist at WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, PA.  In addition, also joining us from WCAU-TV is on-air broadcast meteorologist Steven Sosna.  Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Also joining us is the Chief scientist/SOO at the National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL.  Kevin Laws, welcome to the show!

Last but not least, Joel Housman is joining us this week to celebrate National Weather Podcast Month.  Hailing from Washington DC, he runs Ice Station Housman and is a weather enthusiast.  Welcome to the show, Joel!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • 23 killed in EF4 Lee County, Alabama tornado on 3/3
  • National Weather Podcast Month
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • National Weather round-up
  • and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

Find Beau on Facebook!  Click the banner.

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Find Beau on Twitter!   Share your weather photos!  @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

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