Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 6, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

 

 

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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

 

 

 

 

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

    1. Go to today’s forecast
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

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My regular detailed text forecast can be found below these graphics.

My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.

 

Missouri

 

 

Illinois

 

 

 

Kentucky

 

 

 

 

Tennessee

 

  1.   Warming trend.
  2.   Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast over the coming days.
  3.   Locally heavy rain possible Saturday.
  4.   Monitoring the risk of a strong thunderstorm Saturday.
  5.   Most likely dry Sunday and Monday.

 

Today: No
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Tomorrow:  No

 

Confidence rating explained.

  • High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
  • Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
  • Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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Today through Thursday night.

  1. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.  There is a chance of sleet or wet snow late Wednesday night/Thursday morning and again Thursday night. No accumulation anticipated, at this time.
  2.  Is lightning in the forecast?  No.
  3.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  No.  
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast?  No.  General river flooding, however, will continue.

 

Friday through next Thursday the 14th

  • Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No. 
  • Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible Saturday/Saturday evening. 
  • Is severe weather in the forecast?  I am monitoring Saturday/Saturday evening. 
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  • Is flash flooding in the forecast?  I am monitoring Saturday/Saturday evening.  General river flooding will continue.

 

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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March 6, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  38° to 42°     SE MO  36° to 38°     South IL  34° to 36°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  34° to 36°    West KY  35° to 40°     NW TN  36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest becoming southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 4 moderate
Sunrise:   6:19 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Increasing clouds through the night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  25° to 30°     SE MO  24° to 28°     South IL  23° to 26°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  24° to 26°    West KY  24° to 28°     NW TN  26° to 28°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   20%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:54 PM
Moonrise:   6:37 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:  6:01 PM

 

 

March 7, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast
: A chance of light snow this morning near Mt Vernon southeast towards Owensboro.  Cloudy.  A  slight chance of a shower over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  46° to 50°     SE MO  46° to 48°     South IL  44° to 48°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  43° to 45°    West KY  46° to 48°     NW TN  46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%     MO  20%     IL   30%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30%     Western KY  10%    NW TN  10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered this morning from Mt Vernon, IL towards northwest KY.  Otherwise, isolated.  The best chance would be from Poplar Bluff to Farmington, MO.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None for most areas.  I am monitoring a band of snow that will push northwest to southeast across portions of the region.  That would mainly be northern parts of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise:   6:18 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain.  A slight chance of a rain and snow mix over our northern counties (towards Farmington, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  38° to 40°     SE MO  34° to 36°     South IL  33° to 36°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  33° to 36°    West KY  38° to 42°     NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  90%      Southeast MO   90%      Southern IL   90%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  90%     Western KY  90%      NW TN   90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Monitor radars
Sunset:   5:55PM
Moonrise:   7:307AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  6:58 PM

 

 

March 8, 2019
Friday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Morning showers.  A few afternoon showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  53° to 54°     SE MO  50° to 54°     South IL  48° to 54°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  54° to 56°    West KY  53° to 54°     NW TN  53° to 55°
Wind direction and speed:  Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  60%     MO  50%     IL   50%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60%     Western KY  60%    NW TN  60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Monitor radars.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise:   6:17 AM

Friday night Forecast: Cloudy.  Scattered showers redeveloping, especially late at night.   Greatest chances will be over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  44° to 46°     SE MO  36° to 40°     South IL  38° to 44°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  38° to 42°    West KY  38° to 42°     NW TN  44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  40%      Southeast MO   40%      Southern IL   20%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  20%      NW TN   20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would not cancel.  I would monitor updates and radars.
Sunset:   5:56 PM
Moonrise:   7:35 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  7:55 PM

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Saturday:  Cloudy with a chance of showers and storms.  Highs in the 60’s.  Lows in the 40’s.

Sunday:  Partly cloudy.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows in the 30’s.

Monday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs in the mid 40’s to lower 50’s.  Lows in the 30’s.

Another chance of showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

 

Wind forecast

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today and tomorrow:  No severe weather concerns.

Friday through Sunday:  I am monitoring Saturday and Saturday night.  Thunderstorms are possible.  Too soon to know if severe weather will occur.

 

 

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Wednesday through Monday: I am not anticipating accumulating snow or ice.

 

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

 

48-hour precipitation outlook.

 

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast.  This includes day one through seven.

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?  Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

 

 

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here..

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.  Click here.

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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  1. Tracking rain chances.
  2.  A stronger storm system is possible Saturday and Saturday night.  Locally heavy is rain possible.  I am monitoring the risk of storms.

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No significant adjustments.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

 

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Forecast discussion.

We have one more cold day.  A warming trend begins tomorrow and will last into the weekend.

High pressure dominates our region’s weather.  Thus, the lack of precipitation.

Of course, a warming trend will come at a price.  Rain showers will return to the forecast.

It appears that we will have temperatures above freezing during this event.  That is good news.  There could be a stray snow flurry over our northern counties late Thursday afternoon and night.  No big deal.

The bad news is that we do not need more rain.  February was extremely wet.  It appears we are heading towards a series of weather systems that will bring widespread rain to the region.

The Thursday evening into Friday night rain event should be on the light side.  Less than 0.25″ is anticipated.

The Saturday event, however, could produce an inch or more of rain.  Some of the guidance indicates two or more inches of rain.  Hopefully, we can stay under the two-inch mark.

I am forecasting a few thunderstorms Saturday.  Lightning would be the main concern.  Locally heavy rain, of course.

The risk of severe weather, at this time, is low.  It is not a zero risk.  Monitor updates.  I typically don’t have a severe weather forecast until 24 to 48 hours in advance.  Severe weather forecasting is like winter storm forecasting.  There are many small variables that come into play.  That makes it nearly impossible to know what is going to happen until we draw closer to the event.

Let me show you some long-range data.

I know we don’t need more rain.  Some of the long-range data indicate above normal rainfall will be with us into spring.

Click to enlarge.

This is the 45-day average precipitation anomaly.  The dark green is above normal.

 

 

See the future-cast radars below.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

 

That is found under your personal notification settings.  Then click the first button.  WeatherOne.  Green is on.

 

 


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Model Future-cast Radars.  What the models believe the radar may look like.

Here is the NAM model future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Red represents ice.  Blue is snow.

The timestamp is in the upper left.

You can see the showers spread into the region Thursday evening into Friday.  The second system arrives on Saturday.

 

 

GFS

This shows you the Thursday, Friday, and Saturday rain event.

This is future-cast radar.  This is what radar may look like.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.

Yellow and orange would be heavier showers.

 

 

We have another system next week.  Most likely this one will arrive on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Locally heavy rain is again possible.  I will monitor the chance of thunderstorms.

Here is how the GFS model handles that system.

 

 

 

River Flooding To Continue

River flooding is going to continue through the week.  I know many of you are having flooding issues.

Speaking of flooding, here are some links to help you track the crest numbers.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

Current conditions.

 

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

 

 


END HERE


VIDEO UPDATES
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

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The Ohio Valley video

 

 

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Long-range This video.

 

 

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The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)

 

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these.  They may not always agree **

The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.

Days six through ten temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

 

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Days six through ten precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

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Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.  These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers  March 11th through the 18th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″

This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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March temperature and precipitation outlook

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April temperature and precipitation outlook

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

 

Temperature outlook

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Precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
.1

 

WeatherBrains Episode 685

 

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz, an on-air broadcast meteorologist at WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, PA.  In addition, also joining us from WCAU-TV is on-air broadcast meteorologist Steven Sosna.  Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Also joining us is the Chief scientist/SOO at the National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL.  Kevin Laws, welcome to the show!

Last but not least, Joel Housman is joining us this week to celebrate National Weather Podcast Month.  Hailing from Washington DC, he runs Ice Station Housman and is a weather enthusiast.  Welcome to the show, Joel!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • 23 killed in EF4 Lee County, Alabama tornado on 3/3
  • National Weather Podcast Month
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • National Weather round-up
  • and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

Find Beau on Facebook!  Click the banner.

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Find Beau on Twitter!   Share your weather photos!  @beaudodson

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