Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 6, 2018: Windy with colder air moving in.

A quick update concerning the weekend weather.

First, much of the area has experienced winds in the 30 to 45 mph range.  A few gusts to 50 mph have also been reported.  Temperatures today rose into the 55 to 62 degree range.  Not too bad for the first few days of March.

Clouds are increasing from the north.  These clouds will continue to pivot southward through the evening and overnight hours.

This also will be the signal for colder temperatures.

Temperatures this afternoon have already fallen into the 40’s across portions of the region.

Here is a 3 PM temperature map.  Click to enlarge the map.

Notice the thirties across northern Missouri and parts of Illinois.  Sharp temperature contrast today.  Those are snow showers in the white/blue colors.  Green would be rain showers.

Check out this beautiful satellite animation.

Those clouds pinwheeling around an area of low pressure/upper level low.  Nature is amazing.

Click to enlarge

A few rain/snow showers are possible in our region tonight.  Little or no accumulation, because temperatures will likely remain above freezing over most of the region.

Expect jacket/coat weather tomorrow and Thursday.  Highs only in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s.  Brr.

Rain chances increase Friday and Friday night.  This should be a light rain event.  Perhaps 0.10″ to 0.25″.

Questions continue to swirl around the Saturday and Sunday forecast.

Models are far from agreement.  Ensembles, however, do give us some clues.

Here is what the GFS model is painting for Sunday.  Widespread rain.  Some of that rain would be heavy.

This map is 12 AM Sunday.  Green is rain.  Deep low along the KY/TN border.  This would also mean gusty winds.

On the other hand, the EC model guidance shows this.  Huge difference.

The EC is further south and shunts the rain to our south.

Let’s look at some ensemble data.

What are ensembles?

Here is what the GFS ensembles look like.

Images on this page can be clicked to enlarge.

The GFS ensembles definitely favor the low tracking across our region.  Quite a bit of rain, as well.

The EC ensembles are mixed.  Quite a few of the panels show the heaviest rain to our south.  With that said, some do not.  Some do show the rain over our region.

One more set of EC ensembles

Confidence on the Saturday and Sunday forecast remains low.

I am hoping to have a better handle on it tomorrow night.  I would like to see the EC trend a bit more towards the GFS before jumping on the GFS wagon.

If the GFS verifies then rain totals of 0.75″ to 1.5″ would likely occur across the region.  We would also have to watch the back side of the system for rain changing to snow.

Monitor updates if you have plans on Saturday and Sunday.

 

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March 6, 2018
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Wind Alert.  Strong and gusty winds today.
Forecast
:  Becoming windy.  Sunny during the morning.  Clouds increasing from the north during the afternoon.  A 20% of a shower or thundershower late in the day.  Temperatures may fall late in the day, especially over our northern counties (northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois).
Temperatures:  MO ~  54 to 58           IL ~  53 to 56         KY ~  54 to 58       TN ~ 55 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  Perhaps some isolated showers late in the day over our northern counties.
Winds: West at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph.  Winds may be variable in direction at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong winds.  Isolated lightning late in the day over our northern counties.  Low confidence on the lightning portion of the forecast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some clouds.  A chance of rain and snow showers.  Windy.  Little or no snow accumulation.
Temperatures:  MO ~  32 to 36          IL ~  32 to 35         KY ~  33 to 36      TN ~ 34 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Winds:  West at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Strong winds.  Perhaps some wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

 

March 7, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Morning clouds.  Snow flurries or showers possible. Becoming partly cloudy.  Breezy, at times.
Temperatures:  MO ~  42 to 45           IL ~  42 to 45           KY ~  42 to 46       TN ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  Perhaps isolated before 10 AM.
Winds: Northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Clearing.  Cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~  24 to 28          IL ~  24 to 28        KY ~  25 to 28       TN ~ 26 to 30
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

 

March 8, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Continued chilly.
Temperatures:  MO ~  38 to 44           IL ~ 38 to 44          KY ~  40 to 45        TN ~  44 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:15 AM

Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear early.   Some increase in clouds late.  A slight chance of snow showers after midnight.
Temperatures:  MO ~  24 to 28          IL ~  24 to 28         KY ~  25 to 30      TN ~  25 to 30
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset  5:55 PM

 

March 9, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: A mix of sun and clouds.  Becoming cloudy.   A few showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  52 to 56           IL ~ 52 to 55          KY ~  54 to 56        TN ~  54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to scattered
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:14 AM

Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain showers before 1 AM and then scattered showers after 1 AM.
Temperatures:  MO ~  38 to 45         IL ~  38 to 45          KY ~  42 to 44        TN ~  44 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset  5:56 PM

 

March 10, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A few scattered showers possible.  A bit warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~  54 to 58           IL ~ 54 to 56          KY ~  55 to 60        TN ~  56 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Winds: Variable winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:12 AM

Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Clocks spring forward tonight!
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  38 to 44         IL ~  38 to 44           KY ~  42 to 46         TN ~  43 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds: East winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset  5:57 PM

 

March 11, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~  48 to 54           IL ~ 48 to 54          KY ~  50 to 55        TN ~  52 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Winds: North and northwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Heavy rain.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Possible.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise 7:09 AM

Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered rain or snow showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  34 to 38         IL ~  34 to 38          KY ~  34 to 38         TN ~  34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North and northwest winds at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset  6:58 PM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Today and tonight:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Tomorrow through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

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WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

  1.  Strong winds today.
  2.  A few light rain or snow showers possible tonight and perhaps early Wednesday morning.
  3.  I am monitoring rain chances late Thursday night into Friday night.
  4.  I am also monitoring another system over the weekend.  Lower confidence in rain chances Saturday and Sunday.
  5.  Flooding will continue to be an issue in many areas.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

Strong and gusty winds today.

Highlights

What has changed over the last 24 hours?

Weather Hazards.

 

Monday rainfall totals.

Monday’s rain totals varied quite a bit.  There was a heavier band of part of Missouri and Illinois.  Lightest totals were over our eastern counties.

There were quite a few reports of lightning, especially during the morning hours.

 

 

It has been warm over the last 14 days.  We have dodged some of the colder bullets.  I have not heard too many people complain.

Here is the temperature anomaly for North America.  This is from the last 14 days.  Red is warm.  Red is above normal anomalies (temperature departures)

At one time it appeared that March would turn cold.  We will have a cold shot this week.  I would not be surprised if we had a couple more cold shots before spring settles in.

Click images on this page to enlarge them.

 

Same time frame, but this is Europe.  WOW!  Europe has been in the icebox.

That pink/purple area is extreme cold. You may remember some images of snow in Rome (among other areas).

Again, these are temperature anomalies for the past 14 days.

 

Today into Thursday

The big weather story today is going to be windy conditions.  You can expect winds to increase towards mid to late morning.  Winds will range from 20 to 40 mph.  Higher gusts are likely from time to time.

Winds will subside as we move into tonight, but gusts could into the 20 to 25 range overnight.

Here is the high-resolution 3K NAM guidance.  These are wind gusts.  Timestamp located at the top left.

 

 

A fast moving system will move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning.  Another weak system arrives on Thursday evening and night.

There is a chance of scattered rain or rain/snow showers late this afternoon, but more likely tonight into Wednesday morning (early).  Snow accumulations would be nothing to a trace.  Rain totals would be less than 0.10″.

Here is the NAM 3K model future-cast radar.  You can see some spotty rain and snow showers scattered around.  Pinwheeling around the area of low pressure.  Blue is snow.  Green is rain.

Don’t get caught up in specifics on this.  The model won’t be exactly right in placement, but just take the general idea that some spotty precipitation is possible.

 

 

Another big story will be the colder temperatures.  Frost and freeze conditions are possible.  Winds may help prevent frost tonight.  Most of you have not planted anything, yet.  If this was a month down the road, then the frost/freezing concerns would likely be higher.

I pulled up the ground temperatures from the EC model guidance for Thursday morning.  Definitely cold.

 

Click image for a large view

 

Thursday night into Sunday

Another system arrives Thursday night into Friday.  This system will not initially have much moisture to work with.

A warm front should be situated across portions of Missouri and Illinois Thursday night/Friday morning.  This front will be the focus of some showers.  I can’t completely rule out a thunderstorm, but instability appears meager.

Rain chances will continue into Friday and Friday night.  I am monitoring Saturday’s rain chances.

The Saturday/Sunday forecast is not a slam dunk forecast.  I do have rain chances Saturday, but I would recommend monitoring updated forecasts.  There may need to be adjustments.

I do have rain chances Sunday, as well.  I am not overly confident on the Sunday/Sunday night forecast.  Again, monitor updated forecasts moving forward.  There may be adjustments.

The GFS model shows a mature storm system in our region Saturday into Sunday night.  It shows heavy rain.  It is currently the outlier.  Lot of details to be ironed out for the weekend.

Here is the WPC/NOAA rain forecast through Sunday night.

They currently have the highest totals over southeast Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

 

 

I noticed this graphic last night on my Twitter feed.  This is a concern for severe weather over the coming months.

The Gulf of Mexico waters are anomalously warm.  This often leads to higher dew points.  Higher dew points are one ingredient for severe thunderstorms.  Could the warm Gulf of Mexico waters spell trouble for our region over the coming months?  It is something that I am monitoring.

 

 

In the long range, I am monitoring March 14th through March 16th.  Some of the charts are indicating the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of the southern United States into the Tennessee Valley.

This is a long-range model from the Storm Prediction Center.  This model attempts to pick up on severe signals weeks in advance.  It is hit and miss as far as accuracy.

It is showing you the supercell potential.  Blue zone is where thunderstorms are possible.

 

 

CIPS analogs are hinting at severe weather.   Analogs center the severe weather concerns to our southwest.  Again, this is long range and long range is always going to be low confidence.

What are analogs?

  • Identify existing features on a weather chart that resemble those that occurred in the past.
  • Use previous weather events to guide forecast.
  • Does what happened in the past match what might happen in the future.

The shaded area is where the analogs are forecasting severe thunderstorms.  Obviously, since this is in the long range, it will move around.

Let’s keep an eye on it.

Both the GFS and GEM model guidance hint at a storm around that time.  Again, low confidence because it is in the long range.

GFS model

 

GEM/Canadian model

 

Heavy rain events are increasing.

Have you noticed an increase in heavy rain events?  I grew up in this region and I have noticed.

Most of the meteorologists that I speak with have also noticed.

Studies are showing that we are correct.

The nationwide trends of days with one, two, and three-inch rainfalls are increasing.  For each year in the analysis, scientists examined the number of days that exceed those thresholds and compared it to the long-term average.  Scientists used three different thresholds to account for variations in regional climates.  For example, a one-inch rain is unusual in Phoenix, but not in Miami.

This is bad news for city planners, engineers, and developers who are ignorant of the data.  Cities should no longer use the old 100 year flood numbers.  Times have changed and scientific studies back that up.

More downpours?  Yes, that is a fact.

Annual 1″ rainfall days compared to average.

Annual 2″ rainfall days compared to average.

Annual 3″ rainfall days compared to average.

 

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Weather Brains episode number 632.

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Today’s guest on Weather Brains is Gregory Mandt who has overall responsibility for the JPSS Program. In this role, Mandt oversees the development, acquisition, integration, installation, and acceptance of major system elements (spacecraft, instruments, launch services, and ground systems) for all four JPSS satellites, the first of which was successfully launched in November, 2017, and the NOAA-NASA Suomi NPP satellite.

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  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

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