Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology. Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage. Visit them on their website and on Facebook. You can also find them on Twitter. They are located in Almo, Kentucky. Phone 270-718-0245
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next). The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The APP allows instant delivery. You can keep your test messages on and use the APP. You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.
We are working on the Android APP. Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.
The APP is for subscribers.
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The Android APP is ready.
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Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible early and then increasing chances after midnight. Breezy and mild.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early and then increasing coverage late at night
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: South and southeast at 12 to 24 mph and gusts to 30 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 11:16 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:40 a.m. First Quarter
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
March 6, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Windy. Cloudy with showers likely. Maybe a thunderstorm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected? Not anticipating severe weather during the day light hours
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 68 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South winds at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35+ mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:16 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:54 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 2
Moonrise will be at 12:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:43 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers. Some thunderstorms possible. A few storms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. Monitor for severe weather concerns. Small risk, but not a zero risk. Greatest risk for warnings would be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Strong storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 and above
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 12:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:43 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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March 7, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Morning showers and thunderstorms. A few heavy downpours possible as the cold front moves through the region during the morning hours. Rain chances peak during the morning and the decrease through the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds with any storms that form.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70% Rain chances peak during the morning and the decrease through the day.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous before 9 am and then decreasing through the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan during the morning hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65 (temps may fall a bit after frontal passage)
Winds: West and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusty winds.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:15 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:55 p.m.
UV Index: 2 to 4 (if the clouds exit)
Moonrise will be at 1:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 45
Winds: West 6 to 12 mph before midnight and then variable at less than 5 mph after midnight.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 1:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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March 8, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:13 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:56 p.m.
UV Index: 5 to 7
Moonrise will be at 2:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:34 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear. Cool.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
Winds: West and southwest at 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:34 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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March 9, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Small chance of a shower late in the afternoon as a system approaches from the south. Mild.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways late in the day.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered late in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable at 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:12 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:57 p.m.
UV Index: 3 to 6
Moonrise will be at 3:11 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:21 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 48 IL ~ 42 to 48 KY ~ 42 to 48 TN ~ 41 to 48
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 3:11 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:21 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
More information on the UV index. Click here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Analysis
Sunday night
Confidence: High
Clouds will continue to thicken into Monday morning. Spotty showers will increase overnight. I can’t rule out a lightning bolt, but generally, this should mainly be some rain showers spreading into the region from the southwest.
Precipitation will move northeast.
Rainfall totals tonight won’t be all that great. Perhaps some spots picking up 0.20″.
No severe weather on Sunday night or Monday morning.
Monday into Tuesday
Confidence: Medium
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
Monday will deliver mild, windy, and cloudy conditions. Showers will be noted on radar over the region. I am not anticipating severe weather during the daylight hours on Monday. Lightning is possible.
A tightening wind gradient will mean gusty winds above 30 mph. Pressure gradient will be tightening as an area of low pressure develops to our northwest.
Well above normal temperatures, on southerly winds, for Monday. Temperatures will likely be a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Here is the temperature anomaly map for Monday afternoon and evening.
Normal highs are in the lower 50’s. We will be in the 60’s.
A cold front will enter the region on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
The front will be accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms.
Instability will be small, but not zero. CAPE values of 200 to 500 appear possible as the front moves through southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois and perhaps 50 to 300 over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky/west Tennessee.
CAPE is a measure of energy in the atmosphere for storms to tap into. These are considered low numbers.
Wind fields, on the other hand, will increase through the night. Strong wind shear will mean the potential for a few storms producing hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk is small, but perhaps not zero.
Let’s keep an eye on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
You can see the cold front on this map. The low is north of Minnesota. The cold front drapes back to Kansas City and the Oklahoma Panhandle. It will move eastward.
The green represents scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This next map is for 6 am on Tuesday. The front is crossing the area. A band of thunderstorms will accompany the front.
Here are the future-cast radar images for Monday night and Tuesday night
This is the high resolution NAM guidance. One models opinion on how the rain develops and moves on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
This is the 11 pm forecast map. You can see the line of storms to our west and northwest
This next image is for 12 am on Tuesday. Line of storms moving into our region with brief heavy rain, perhaps some hail, and gusty winds. Lightning, of course.
This next image is for 2 am on Tuesday
This next image is for 4 am on Tuesday. Line of storms advancing through the region
This next image is for 6 am on Tuesday
This next image is for 8 am on Tuesday
This next image is for 2 pm. The line has pushed out of the region and rain has come to an end.
Let’s check four models for rainfall totals. They vary a bit, but you get the general idea.
This is the high resolution 3K NAM guidance.
This is the regular NAM (lower resolution than the map above)
This is the GFS model guidance
This is the Canadian GEM model guidance
Looking ahead:
Guidance shows a fairly active pattern into next week
A weak disturbance on Thursday night and Friday could produce some showers.
Here is what that looks like on the GFS model
This is 6 pm on Thursday. Green would be spotty showers.
This is 12 am on Friday
Southerly winds return and so does moisture
This next image is for Saturday at noon. Thunderstorms? Possibly. We will need to monitor another system that will move into our region from the southwest and west.
This next image is 7 am on Monday. This system has the potential to produce some heavy storms. Let’s keep an eye on the 12th, 13th, and 14th.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Here is the official NOAA rainfall prediction
Most of this falls on Monday night and Tuesday morning
We could use this rain.
This first graphic is Sunday night through Monday morning.
Keep in mind, this is a general idea map. Not everyone will receive the same amounts.
Now, additional rain might appear in the forecast towards the end of the week into the weekend.
NOAA is showing these totals from now through next Sunday.
Drought continues to spread into the region. Some, in the region, would like to see this rain verify.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Monday low temperature forecast
Monday afternoon high temperature forecast
Tuesday low temperature forecast
Tuesday high temperature forecast
Some strong to severe storms are possible Monday night and Tuesday morning. Gusty winds and hail will be the primary concern. Small tornado risk.
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Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Maybe lightning after midnight.
Monday and Tuesday: A cold front will push into and through the region on Monday night and Tuesday morning. A few storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, and a small tornado risk. This is not the same type of setup as last weeks big tornado outbreak. There won’t be as much instability to work with and wind fields will not be as intense.
With that said, as always, it only takes on storm to cause problems. Thus, monitor updates.
Wednesday through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
