Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 5, 2019: Non-subscribers weather update.

 

 

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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

 

 

 

 

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

    1. Go to today’s forecast
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

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My regular detailed text forecast can be found below these graphics.

My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.

 

Missouri

 

 

Illinois

 

 

 

Kentucky

 

 

 

 

Tennessee

 

  1.   Cold and dry today through Wednesday night.
  2.   Tracking showers Thursday into Thursday night.
  3.   A stronger storm system possible Saturday into Sunday morning.

 

Today: No
.
Tomorrow:  No

 

Confidence rating explained.

  • High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
  • Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
  • Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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Today through Thursday night.

  1.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.  There is a chance of sleet or wet snow late Wednesday night/Thursday morning and again Thursday night. No accumulation anticipated, at this time.
  2.  Is lightning in the forecast?  No.
  3.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  No.  
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast?  No.  General river flooding, however, will continue.

 

Friday through next Thursday the 14th

  • Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No. 
  • Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible Saturday. 
  • Is severe weather in the forecast?  I am monitoring Saturday/Saturday night. 
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  • Is flash flooding in the forecast?  I am monitoring Saturday/Saturday night.  General river flooding will continue.

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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March 5, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Some passing clouds.  Windy, at times.   Cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  34° to 38°     SE MO  32° to 36°     South IL  30° to 35°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  26° to 30°    West KY  33° to 36°     NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:  West at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Early morning wind chill values will be in the 10 to 15-degree range.
UV Index: 4 moderate
Sunrise:   6:22 AM

 

Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds.  Cold wind chill values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  16° to 20°     SE MO  13° to 16°     South IL  13° to 16°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  13° to 16°    West KY  14° to 18°     NW TN  18° to 20°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 15°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   0%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:52 PM
Moonrise:   5:33 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning  Crescent
Moonset:  4:08 PM

 

 

March 6, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast
:

Mostly sunny.  Cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  38° to 42°     SE MO  36° to 38°     South IL  34° to 36°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  34° to 36°    West KY  35° to 40°     NW TN  36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest becoming southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 4 moderate
Sunrise:   6:19 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Increasing clouds through the night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  25° to 30°     SE MO  24° to 28°     South IL  23° to 26°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  24° to 26°    West KY  24° to 28°     NW TN  26° to 28°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   20%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:54 PM
Moonrise:   6:37 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:  6:01 PM

 

 

March 7, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A  slight chance of a shower over southeast Missouri.  Most likely dry, elsewhere.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  46° to 48°     SE MO  44° to 46°     South IL  44° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  43° to 45°    West KY  44° to 48°     NW TN  45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%     MO  20%     IL   10%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  10%    NW TN  10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None to perhaps isolated.  The best chance would be near Poplar Bluff to Farmington, MO.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None for most areas
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars late in the day
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise:   6:19 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A  chance of rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  38° to 40°     SE MO  34° to 36°     South IL  33° to 36°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  33° to 36°    West KY  38° to 42°     NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  60%      Southeast MO   60%      Southern IL   60%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60%     Western KY  60%      NW TN   60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Monitor radars
Sunset:   5:54 PM
Moonrise:   6:37 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:  6:01 PM

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Friday:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain showers possible.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows in the 40’s.

Saturday:  Cloudy with a chance of showers and storms.  Highs in the 60’s.  Lows in the 40’s.

Sunday:  Partly cloudy.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows in the 30’s.

 

Wind forecast

Will be posted between 8 and 8:30 AM

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today and tomorrow:  No severe weather concerns.

Thursday through Sunday:  I am monitoring Saturday and Saturday night.  Strong storms can’t be ruled out.

 

 

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Tuesday through Monday: I am not anticipating accumulating snow or ice.  Monitor updates.

 

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

 

48-hour precipitation outlook.

 

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast.  This includes day one through seven.

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?  Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

 

 

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here..

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.  Click here.

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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  1.  Cold weather will linger Wednesday.
  2.  Precipitation chances Thursday and Friday.
  3.  A stronger storm system is possible Saturday and Saturday night.  Locally heavy is rain possible.  I am monitoring the risk of storms.

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No significant adjustments.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

 

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Forecast discussion.

Thoughts go out to everyone impacted by the horrific tornado outbreak to our south.  I have never seen such a large debris field on the radar CC product.  It was huge.  I guess we know why now.  The damage images are stunning.

One of the tornadoes was nearly a mile wide and rated an EF4.

Here were where tornado watches and warnings were issued and where tornadoes have been confirmed, thus far.

 

 

Today into Wednesday night.

I am not anticipating any significant weather through Wednesday evening.

A storm system will approach the region late Wednesday night into Friday.  This system will produce some rain showers.  Most of the showers will arrive Thursday night (late) into Friday morning.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.

Timestamp upper left.

 

A look ahead.

Saturday through Monday.

There are concerns about heavy rain, gusty winds, and thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night.

This system does have some potential for producing severe weather in the warm sector.  It is still too early, however, to become overly concerned.  I will monitor trends.

Typically, detailed/accurate severe weather forecasts aren’t possible until a day or two before an event.  The final details are normally known 24 hours in advance (sometimes 12 hours).

The bottom line is to monitor updates.

You can see two systems on this animation.

The first one arrives on Saturday and exits by Sunday morning.

The second one is later next week.  I am watching the 12th and 13th   It also could produce locally heavy rain and thunderstorms.  Plenty to monitor over the coming days.,

 

 

Make sure you have WeatherOne on.

That is found under your personal notification settings.  Then click the first button.  WeatherOne.  Green is on.

 

 

River Flooding To Continue

River flooding is going to continue through the week.  I know many of you are having flooding issues.

Speaking of flooding, here are some links to help you track the crest numbers.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 


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Model Future-cast Radars.  What the models believe the radar may look like.

I posted them above.

Dry weather today through Wednesday evening

 

Current conditions.

 

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

 

 


VIDEO UPDATES
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

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The Ohio Valley video

 

 

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Long-range This video.

 

 

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The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)

 

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these.  They may not always agree **

The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.

Days six through ten temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

 

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Days six through ten precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

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Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.  These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers  March 11th through the 18th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″

This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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March temperature and precipitation outlook

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April temperature and precipitation outlook

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

 

Temperature outlook

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Precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 684

Also joining us as Guest WeatherBrain No. 2. is the Chief Meteorologist at FOX29 in San Antonio and is the President and CEO of the National Tropical Weather Conference.  Alex Garcia, welcome to the WeatherBrains!

Last but not least, the Vice President for Operations of the National Tropical Weather Conference joins us on the show.  In addition, he’s the Chief Meteorologist at KRGV in Weslaco, TX.   Tim Smith, welcome!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • National Tropical Weather Conference upcoming soon in South Padre
  • Foot of rain falls in parts of Southeast
  • EF3 in Columbus, MS on 2/23/19
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

Find Beau on Facebook!  Click the banner.

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Find Beau on Twitter!   Share your weather photos!  @beaudodson

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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

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