Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 29th and 30th: Stormy.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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March 29, 2017

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Windy.  Showers and thunderstorms increasing from the west and southwest.  Most of the activity will arrive after midnight.  A few strong storms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Is severe weather expected?  Severe weather can’t be ruled out.  Greatest risk is over southeast Missouri.  See maps and discussions further down.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 90%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps becoming numerous (mostly late)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64   IL ~ 56 to 64    KY ~ 58 to 64     TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds:  Southeast winds at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusts above 30 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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March 30, 2017
Thursday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Windy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Monitor updates.  A few storms could produce hail, high winds, and even tornadoes.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Is severe weather expected?  Severe storms are likely on Thursday and Thursday night.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous early in the day.  Increasing chances again in the afternoon and evening.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.  Be alert and aware of storm potential.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75    IL ~ 68 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 75   TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds:  South winds at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:16 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 8:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:23 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely early (may have ended over much of the area).  Rain will end from west to east.  A few late night lighter showers possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor severe weather risks early in the evening.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor the evening hours.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%   TN ~ 60%  Chances ending from west to east.
Coverage of precipitation
:  Decreasing through the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  At least have a plan B in mind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56   IL ~ 52 to 56    KY ~ 52 to 56     TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds:  Becoming west and southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty winds possible.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise will be at 8:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:23 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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March 31, 2017
Friday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  An isolated shower or storm possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Spotty
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65    KY ~ 60 to 65   TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:16 p.m.
UV Index
: 7 to 9
Moonrise 
will be at 9:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:32 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning early
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Spotty, but ending
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 42 to 48   IL ~ 42 to 48    KY ~ 42 to 48     TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise will be at 9:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:32 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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April 1, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Nice day, anticipated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 68     IL ~ 62 to 68    KY ~ 64 to 68   TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:17 p.m.
UV Index
: 7 to 9
Moonrise 
will be at 10:11 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– p.m. Waxing Crescent

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  A few late night clouds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50   IL ~ 45 to 50    KY ~ 45 to 50     TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise will be at 10:11 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– p.m. Waxing Crescent

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April 2, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Increasing clouds from the southwest.  I can’t rule out some showers, but confidence is low.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered, but low confidence on this.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.   Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70     KY ~ 66 to 72   TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds:  North and east at 5 to 10 mph.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:18 p.m.
UV Index
: 7 to 9
Moonrise 
will be at 11:05 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:37 a.m. Waxing Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy with showers possible.  Thunderstorms possible, as well.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~  50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50   IL ~ 45 to 50    KY ~ 45 to 50     TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise  will be at 11:05 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:37 a.m.  Waxing Crescent

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April 3, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy with rain likely.  Thunderstorms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68    KY ~ 64 to 68   TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:18 p.m.
UV Index
: 4 to 6
Moonrise 
will be at 12:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:37 a.m. First quarter

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible and thunderstorms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54   IL ~ 48 to 54    KY ~ 48 to 54     TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds:  Southeast  becoming west/southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise  will be at 12:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:37 a.m.  First quarter

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday night:  Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates.  Some of the storms could once again be intense.  Severe weather is again possible.  The main time frame of concern would be 12 am through 7 am.  At this time, it appears the greatest concern will be over southeast Missouri.  Lesser concerns as you push into Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

Thursday and Thursday night:  Thunderstorms are possible.  Some of the storms will be severe with hail and high winds.  A few tornadoes can’t be ruled out, as well.  Monitor watches and warnings.

Friday and Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Saturday into Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  I will monitor the timing of Sunday’s rain chances.

Sunday night into Tuesday:  Thunderstorm chances may once again increase.  Monitor updates.

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Your day by day analysis

Wednesday night into Thursday night
Confidence:  Medium
Severe storms again possible

The main concern over the next 24 to 36 hours will be a couple of rounds of thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could be severe.  Remember, a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch means to monitor updates.  Severe weather is a possibility.

A severe thunderstorm or tornado warning means to take immediate action.  Seek shelter.  Severe weather is moving into your area.

Severe weather is defined as 1″ hail or larger (quarter size or larger), 60 MPH winds or higher, and/or a tornado.

The first round of storms will occur between 10 pm and 8 am (Wednesday night/Thursday morning).  Some of the storms, moving into southeast Missouri, could produce hail and strong winds.  There is also a chance for some short lived tornadoes.  The greatest risk zone will extend from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Farmington, Missouri.  Along that line and west of that line is where the atmosphere will be quite unstable.

Areas to the east of that line, which would include the rest of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee, could experience locally heavy thunderstorms, as well.  The severe weather risk is lower over southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

Monitor updates for changes in the severe weather outlook.

Here is the severe weather outlook from the SPC.  This map could change.  Check out the latest maps at this link – click here

CLICK ALL IMAGES TO ENLARGE THEM

Here are my probabilities for severe weather in our local area

This is for late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.  This is NOT for the Thursday afternoon event.

Southeast Missouri

Illinois

Western Kentucky

Western Tennessee

Here are some future-cast radar images.  These are produced from models.  They won’t be exact.  Take generalities from these images.

This is what radar might look like tonight into Thursday morning

This first image is for 10 pm on Wednesday night.

This line, according to this model, is a slow mover

This is 1 am on Thursday morning

This next image is for 5 am on Thursday morning.  Slow moving line of locally heavy storms.  Probably not severe, but let’s just keep an eye on it.

This next image is for 10 am.  Now, this is interesting.  The reason it is interesting is because that would imply a lot of clouds and perhaps ongoing showers and storms.  That could keep the atmosphere more stable tomorrow afternoon.  Tough call, but this is why we have to wait until Thursday morning to understand the Thursday afternoon severe weather potential.

Speaking of Thursday.

Here is the severe weather outlook.  This could change a bit.  Monitor the most up to date graphic on the SPC website.  – click here

The second round of storms will likely develop over Missouri and Arkansas on Thursday afternoon.  It is this second line that is concerning forecasters the most.  If severe weather were to occur, on Thursday afternoon and evening, then the second line would be the concern.

If the atmosphere can recover from the morning activity, recover means recharge, then severe weather would likely be the end result.  That could mean large hail and damaging winds.  It might even mean tornadoes.

Here is what the future-cast 3K high resolution NAM model is showing.  This is the second line.

This is the 1 pm future-cast radar.  One models opinion on what might unfold.  You can see the second line forming over Missouri and Arkansas.  It will race E/NE at 40 to 50 mph and perhaps even faster.

1 pm map

Here is the 4 PM future-cast radar map

Here is the 7 pm future-cast radar map

Everyone should monitor the latest weather information.  Make sure you have signed up for the text alerts.  You can sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Make sure you have multiple ways to receive severe weather information.

Make sure you understand where you are located on a radar map.  Do your kids know where they live on a radar or warning map?  If not, teach them.


Where am I on a radar map?

Do your kids understand severe weather warnings?

Friday through Sunday
Confidence:  Medium  on Friday and Saturday.  LOW confidence on Sunday

I can’t rule out a stray shower on Friday.  Cooler Friday with highs in the 48 to 56 degree range.

Dry Friday night, Saturday, and Saturday night.  Pick day of the weekend is Saturday.

Models are in no agreement on Sunday and Sunday night’s forecast.  The GFS shows widespread rain and the EC shows clouds.  At this time, I am going to place small rain chances on Sunday.  I am going to ramp up rain chances Sunday night into Monday night.  Quite a bit of rain is possible on Monday.  Locally heavy rain seems a good bet.  Severe weather risk appears small, but not zero.  I need to monitor the track of the area of low pressure on Monday.  If the low tracks to our north then thunderstorm chances increase.  As always, monitor updates.

Active pattern!

 

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Find me on Twitter

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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