Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 29, 2015: Some rain in the forecast. Warmer by Monday.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region.  These are averages.

Sunday – A mix of sun and clouds during the morning.  Becoming cloudy from north to south.  A band of showers will push in from the northwest towards the southeast as the day wears on.  Cool, but not as cold as Saturday was.  Highs will be mainly in the 50’s.  East and southeast winds in the morning at 10 mph.  Winds becoming South and southwest at 10-15 mph and gusty during the afternoon hours.   My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium

Sunday night – Some clouds and a chance for showers..especially early in the night.  Gusty winds early in the evening. Lows will be in the 30’s and lower 40’s.   My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium

Monday –  Partly cloudy and mild.  Warmer than recent days.  It will feel more like spring with highs into the 60’s.  West/northwest winds at 10-15 mph. Winds may be from the southwest during part of the afternoon.   My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high

Monday night – Mostly clear.  Not as cold as recent nights.  Lows will mainly be in the 40’s.  South/southwest winds at 10 mph.  My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high

Tuesday – Partly sunny.  Some increase in clouds late in the day.  Warm.  Highs in the upper 60’s and there could be some reach 70 degrees.  Spring like weather.  South/southwest winds at 10 mph.  My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high

 

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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

 

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Band of showers moves in from the northwest today.  It will slide southeast as the day wears on and exit by late this evening.
2.  River stages will drop sharply over the coming week
3.  Another round of rain and storms by the middle/end of the week (won’t rain all of the time – on and off).  Locally heavy rain possible.  Monitor updates concerning the severe weather threat.   Still too early to make a forecast on that aspect of the system.

Well, we made it through a chilly Saturday.  Temperatures on Saturday morning dipped into the 20’s over most of the area.  Light snow skirted our western counties as a disturbance moved in from Iowa.

Here were some of the morning temperatures (Saturday morning)

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Here was the Saturday morning radar view – snow fell over our far western counties

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You will notice that I added 3 more counties to my coverage map.  These counties had been “included” in discussions during winter storms (severe events).

Now, there may need to be some give or take there.  If we have a severe weather event that lasts all night…you guys will be the last to receive the storms.  We will have to see how it goes with me being up for long periods of time.  But, I will definitely work with you on receiving information!

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We are going to have another chilly night tonight.  Lows will be in the 20’s.  But, I do have warming on the way!  Stay with me.

Sunday will bring another weak weather system in from the north and northwest.  This system will arrive during the afternoon hours and linger into the evening.  Expect a band of showers along a front.  The precipitation totals will be on the light side.  Not overly concerned about this event (unlike recent ones).

The band of showers will arrive in our far northern and northwest counties during the late morning hours and early afternoon.  It will exit our southern counties between 9 pm and 1 am tonight (Sunday night).

Rainfall totals will be anywhere from a trace to perhaps a tenth of an inch.

Let’s check out the weatherbell.com high resolution WRF model.  It does a decent job  in the short range.  This is the future-cast radar.  What radar “might” look like later today.

You get the general idea.  A band of showers will move into the region from the northwest.  It will move south/southeast through the area.  It will exit by later this evening.

This future-cast radar image is for around 4-6 pm.

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This image is around 8 pm to 10 pm.  Rain should exit rather quickly.

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This image is for around 12 am – 2 am Monday morning.  Rain is well to our south.

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Monday will bring SPRING like weather!  Highs will be in the 60’s.  See, good news.  Just in time to go back to work, everything warms up.

Tuesday will be even warmer.  Some places might touch 70 on Tuesday.  Any complaints?  🙂

A bigger weather system is taking shape for Wednesday into Friday.  Several rounds of precipitation will be possible in our area.  Locally heavy rain, as well.

There are some timing differences on the data, but it does appear rain will be in the region on Wednesday into Friday.  It could arrive as early as Tuesday night (a few showers).  I will monitor and update as new data becomes available.

Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out with this event.  Monitor updates, as always.

Let’s track the dew points with this event.  Remember, meteorologists like to use dew points to gauge how much moisture is in the air.  It is a better tool than relative humidity.

You can see that on Saturday we had very dry air over the region.  Hardly any green on this map!  The green areas would be higher dew points.  Images are from hazwx.com

You can see a hint of green along the Gulf Coast.

Click images for a larger view

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Moving forward to Monday – a bit more moisture attempting to skirt northward

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Then by Tuesday morning – more moisture moving northward.  The moisture train is on the move!

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Then by Wednesday morning.  More and more moisture being pulled northward.  The higher the dew points the more moisture is available for our next precipitation maker.

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Finally on Thursday morning.  Click images to read the numbers better.

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Let’s look at CAPE numbers for Wednesday and Thursday.  Some CAPE is showing up.  Remember CAPE is energy for storms.  Basically (not a technical description).  The higher the CAPE numbers then the more intense storms usually are.

More information on CAPE can be found here…for you enhanced weather enthusiasts – click here

This is the CAPE forecast map for Wednesday.  Some CAPE in the region.  Image is from wright-weather.com

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And then on Thursday.  These numbers aren’t extreme.  But, we will need to monitor updates on all of this.  Could be some heavy thunderstorms.  Too soon to talk about severe risks.

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Rainfall totals will be  higher with the mid-week event.  Some spots could exceed 1″.

Check out the river stage graphs below.  The stages are dropping (and fast).  This is great news.

That does not mean we are out of the woods for flooding.  We still have spring rains to go.  We may have additional crests as we move into April and May.  That is not unusual.

 

Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

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No major updates.  Continue to zero in on the timing for the showers on Sunday afternoon and night.  Brief window of time when a band of showers will move through the area.  This is not a significant event.

 

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No major concerns.  We will have freeze conditions again tonight (Saturday night).  If you have sensitive plants then keep that in mind.

 

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They can also be found on this Facebook page

 

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Visit their web-site here.  Or you can also visit their Facebook page.

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Trover’s Equipment and Lawn Care – Family owned and operated!  They are a dealer for Snapper, Simplicity, Snapper Pro, Bad Boy Mowers, and Intimidator Utility Vehicles. They are a Stihl and Dolmar power products dealer. They also are a dealer for Briggs & Stratton, Kohler gas & diesel engines, and Kawasaki engines. They service and repair just about any brand.  You can find them on  Facebook, as well

 

The School Bus Stop Forecast is brought to your by Shawnee Professional Services.  For more information click here

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Shawnee Professional Services & Civil Design Group have been providing Land Surveying, Engineering, Grant Administration and Acquisition services for the past 20 years. Currently Licensed in Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, and Tennessee; please contact Shawnee for any Land Surveying or Engineering needs.  Shawnee’s company size allows them to devote individual attention to each client and to approach each project with the required thoroughness to successfully complete the project, large or small.  Visit Shawnee’s website at shawneepsi.com for more information.  Shawnee has offices in Paducah, KY, Vienna, IL and Benton, IL.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

 

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The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast

Wild card in this forecast – Rainfall totals on Sunday will be the wild card today.  Perhaps a trace to 0.10″.  Some places will remain dry.  Some of the data pops a little heavier shower activity.  Let’s see if anyone ends up with more than 0.10″ of rain on Sunday afternoon and night.

 

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level is  ZERO (Sunday)

Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – MONITOR updates.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook –  MONITOR updates
Friday Severe Weather Outlook –  MONITOR updates
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook –  Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook –  Severe weather is not anticipated

 

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Will I need to take action?

Sensitive plants will need protecting again tonight.  Expect lows in the 20’s.

 

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

We have a few chances of rain in the coming days.

The first round of showers will be brief.  The time frame will be Sunday afternoon and night.  A window of just a few hours as a line of showers moves from north/northwest towards the southeast.  Rainfall totals will be light.  Perhaps a trace to 0.10″

The next round of rain will arrive towards the middle and end of the week.  Rain could be heavy and thunderstorms are possible.

Here is the rainfall forecast map through Monday morning.  This covers the light rain showers on Sunday afternoon and evening, that some might experience

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Then the rest of the week (through next Saturday)

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Snow is not in the forecast through Thursday.

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This section of the blog is speculative forecast information.  Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation.  Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.

The first 2 weeks of April could be busy for meteorologists.  Monitor updates.

We also aren’t finished with the cold shots.  Charts show a few more down the road.  Hopefully not into the 20’s

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.

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Regional Radar

 

clickherewatches

Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.

I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.

Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement.  Click your county to view the latest information.

Missouri Warnings

Illinois Warnings

Kentucky Warnings

 

 

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Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky.  They have a lot of maps and information on their site.  Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.  Just need to finish two Spanish classes!

I am a member of the American Meteorological Society.  I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.  And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

 

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog

 

Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.

Southern Illinois Weather Observatory

The Weather Observatory

 

Southern Illinois Weather Observatory

WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions

Marion, Illinois

 

WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras

Downtown Paducah, Kentucky

 

Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view

Benton, Kentucky

 

I24 Paducah, Kentucky

I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY

I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky

 

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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