Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 28th and 29th: Stormy pattern.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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March 28, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Cool.  Patchy fog possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated.  Will monitor fog chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~ 50 to 55    KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 7:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:06 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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March 29, 2017
Wednesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds. A 50% for showers and storms over southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, NW Tennessee, and far western Kentucky.  A 40% chance elsewhere.  A band of showers may move through the area.  Not anticipating severe weather, but lightning and pea size hail possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Not during the daylight hours.  Monitoring Wednesday night and Thursday
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
: A band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms is forecast to move through the area.  This is especially true over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but a band of showers may move through the area.   Monitor the radars.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74    IL ~ 66 to 76    KY ~ 70 to 76   TN ~ 74 to 76
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 7 to 14 mph and gusty.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:15 p.m.
UV Index
: 4 to 5 
Moonrise 
will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Windy.  Showers and thunderstorms increasing from the west and southwest.  Most of the activity will arrive after midnight.  A few strong storms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Is severe weather expected?  Severe weather can’t be ruled out.  Greatest risk is over southeast Missouri.  See maps and discussions further down.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 90%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps becoming numerous (mostly late)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64   IL ~ 56 to 64    KY ~ 58 to 64     TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds:  Southeast winds at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusts above 30 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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March 30, 2017
Thursday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Windy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Monitor updates.  A few storms could produce hail, high winds, and even tornadoes.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Is severe weather expected?  Severe storms are likely on Thursday and Thursday night.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous early in the day.  Increasing chances again in the afternoon and evening.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.  Be alert and aware of storm potential.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75    IL ~ 68 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 75   TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds:  South winds at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:16 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 8:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:23 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely early (may have ended over much of the area).  Rain will end from west to east.  A few late night lighter showers possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor severe weather risks early in the evening.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor the evening hours.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%   TN ~ 60%  Chances ending from west to east.
Coverage of precipitation
:  Decreasing through the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  At least have a plan B in mind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56   IL ~ 52 to 56    KY ~ 52 to 56     TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds:  Becoming west and southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty winds possible.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise will be at 8:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:23 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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March 31, 2017
Friday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  An isolated shower or storm possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Spotty
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65    KY ~ 60 to 65   TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:16 p.m.
UV Index
: 7 to 9
Moonrise 
will be at 9:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:32 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning early
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Spotty, but ending
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 42 to 48   IL ~ 42 to 48    KY ~ 42 to 48     TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise will be at 9:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:32 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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April 1, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Nice day, anticipated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 68     IL ~ 62 to 68    KY ~ 64 to 68   TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:17 p.m.
UV Index
: 7 to 9
Moonrise 
will be at 10:11 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– p.m. Waxing Crescent

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  A few late night clouds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50   IL ~ 45 to 50    KY ~ 45 to 50     TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise will be at 10:11 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– p.m. Waxing Crescent

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April 2, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Increasing clouds from the southwest.  I can’t rule out some showers, but confidence is low.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered, but low confidence on this.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.   Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70     KY ~ 66 to 72   TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds:  North and east at 5 to 10 mph.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:18 p.m.
UV Index
: 7 to 9
Moonrise 
will be at 11:05 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:37 a.m. Waxing Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy with showers possible.  Thunderstorms possible, as well.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~  50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50   IL ~ 45 to 50    KY ~ 45 to 50     TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise  will be at 11:05 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:37 a.m.  Waxing Crescent

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April 3, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy with rain likely.  Thunderstorms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68    KY ~ 64 to 68   TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:18 p.m.
UV Index
: 4 to 6
Moonrise 
will be at 12:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:37 a.m. First quarter

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible and thunderstorms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54   IL ~ 48 to 54    KY ~ 48 to 54     TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds:  Southeast  becoming west/southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise  will be at 12:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:37 a.m.  First quarter

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Tuesday night into Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning possible during the day on Wednesday.  Pea size hail.

Wednesday night:  Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates.  Some of the storms could once again be intense.  Severe weather is again possible.  The main time frame of concern would be 12 am through 7 am

Thursday and Thursday night:  Thunderstorms are possible.  Some of the storms could be quite intense.  Severe weather is again possible.

Friday and Friday night:  I can’t rule out lightning on Friday and Friday evening.

Saturday into Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Sunday night into Tuesday:  Thunderstorm chances may once again increase.  Monitor updates.

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Your day by day analysis

Tuesday night
Confidence:  High

A calm night is anticipated.  Patchy fog is again possible.  This is especially true if we clear out a bit.  At this time, it appears quite a few clouds will remain in the area.  If fog does develop then it could be dense.

Wednesday
Confidence:  Medium

Wednesday will be a day of transition.  I had to increase rain chances.  A band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms is forecast to move across Missouri into Illinois and perhaps Kentucky/Tennessee.  This won’t be an all day rain.  A passing band of showers.  Temperatures should rebound into the upper 60’s north and perhaps some middle 70’s southern counties.

Winds may pick up a bit on Wednesday afternoon.  Perhaps some 15 to 20 mph gusts.

Wednesday night into Thursday night
Confidence:  Medium
Severe storms again possible

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the weather on Wednesday night into Thursday night.  Some of these storms could produce hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes.

The time frame of concern will likely be between 12 am and 7 am on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  A second round of storms is possible Thursday afternoon and night.

There remain some questions about how this event unfolds.  One question is timing.  If storms arrive after midnight on Wednesday night/Thursday morning, then we will have less CAPE.  Wind fields, however, will remain strong.  There will be shear for storms to work with.

I am anticipating a line of thunderstorms to move into the region late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  Typically, these type of events produce reports of wind damage and short lived tornadoes.  Monitor updates.

Thursday morning will deliver clouds.  Will the clouds thin or clear?  That is the big question.  If the clouds move out then temperatures will rise and CAPE will build.  CAPE is a measure of energy in the atmosphere.  The higher the CAPE the higher the risk for severe weather.  This will need to be monitored.  I don’t think we will know until Thursday morning.  That is the way these severe weather events usually unfold.

I would encourage everyone to monitor updated information.

Let’s look at a couple of maps

Lapse rates are important because they give us an idea of hail potential.  High lapse rates normally mean a higher risk for large hail.  This map is for 1 am on Thursday morning.

Those are some decent numbers.  We need to monitor Wednesday night and Thursday morning for thunderstorms.  Some potential for strong storms.

Future-cast radar for Wednesday night/Thursday morning shows a line of storms pushing into the area

4 am future-cast radar (won’t be exact).  This is what the NAM model thinks we happen.  A line of storms advances into our region from the west.

7 am future-cast radar for Thursday

Let’s look at the Thursday event.

This is the EHI numbers at 4 PM on Thursday.  Some spiking over southeast Missouri.  EHI numbers are important, because they give us an idea of where the greatest shear is forecast to occur.  Shear is one ingredient for severe storms.

4 PM Thursday

Supercell composite for Thursday afternoon spikes over portions of our region, as well.

Let’s look at the NAM future-cast radar.  This is what one model believes will happen on Thursday afternoon and evening.

This is the 4 pm map.  Thursday afternoon.  Another line of storms.  Let’s keep an eye on all of this.

 

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Find me on Twitter

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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