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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
We will be watching for freeze conditions on Friday night and Saturday morning…
Radars to track the snow flurries…click here
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Snow flurries likely. Appears there will be some sunny periods. Chilly with well below normal temperatures. Morning temperatures will be in the 30’s and will only rise into the 40’s during the afternoon. Small chance for a sprinkle. It will feel more like fall outside than spring. Northerly winds at 10 mph during the morning and northwest/north winds at 10-20 mph during the afternoon. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Some clouds possible. A flurry possible. Morning temperatures will be cold. Expect mostly 30’s. North winds at 5-10 mph.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Some clouds. Chilly. Temperatures only in the 40’s. Northwest winds at 10-20 mph.
Friday night – Some clouds over western areas. Partly cloudy elsewhere. A chance for a light rain or snow shower (especially over southeast Missouri). Chilly temperatures. Lows by Saturday morning will drop into the 20’s for most of the region. Freeze conditions. Light winds from the northeast at 5 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Saturday – Cloudy (western counties especially) during the morning with some light rain or snow showers (especially over southeast Missouri). Mix of sun and clouds elsewhere. Chilly. Highs mostly in the 40’s. East/northeast winds at 10-15 mph. Winds shifting to the southeast late. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Saturday night – Clearing and chilly. Lows in the 30’s. Light winds from the southeast at 5-10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Sunday – Mix of sun and clouds…some clouds during the afternoon with a chance for a shower late. Cool. Temperatures mainly in the upper 40’s to middle 50’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph gusts to 15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Warmer temperatures by Monday.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Colder weather has returned. Snow flurries today.
2. A couple of chances for light precipitation over the next 24-48 hours.
3. Warmer weather returns on Monday
4. Monitoring first week of April for more active weather
We had our first severe weather event on Wednesday night. It wasn’t a major event, but it was the first event of the season. There is always a ‘dusting off’ process when it comes to the first event.
Here is the verification from the storm. The forecast was for some scattered reports of hail and high winds. That is pretty much what happened. Nothing too serious. There was a lot of small hail reports, as well. Some of the hail was quite heavy and even dusted the ground in spots.
The good news is that the stormy weather is over, for now.
Colder air has settled into the region. We have a couple of weather disturbances moving our way.
Flurries will be possible today. Not a big deal. A reminder that it is cold.
Another disturbance will arrive on Friday night and early Saturday morning. This will mainly be a Missouri event. Light rain or even snow showers will be possible. Nothing major.
Let’s look quickly at the NAM/WRF model. You can see on Friday night and Saturday morning that most of the precipitation is in Missouri. Future-cast radar from weatherbell.com
This image is for around 9-10 am on Saturday. Again, mainly west.
The second event arrives on Sunday afternoon (late) and night. Some showers will be possible in our region. Again, nothing major.
Here is the future-cast precipitation image for Sunday – maybe some light rain on Sunday afternoon
The weekend will be on the cool side.
Freeze conditions are likely on Saturday morning. Expect much of the region to experience lows in the 20’s. I was afraid this would happen. I know some of you have been asking about planting gardens and flowers. The cold weather isn’t over, yet.
A note to remind everyone…tornadoes do cross rivers. As we move into spring I will try to post some more safety information and myth buster information!
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Made some small changes to wind direction and speed. Nothing major.
Frost and/or freeze conditions. The coldest night will be Friday night. Temperatures by Saturday morning will dip into the lower 30’s and 20’s. There could be several hours when we are in the 20’s – especially over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. That means a freeze is likely to occur.
If you have sensitive plants then keep this in mind. Some frost is also possible on Friday morning. Temperatures will dip into the 30’s late Thursday night and early Friday morning.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Protect sensitive plants from the cold weather.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – how low will temperatures go on Saturday morning. Appears 20’s are a good bet for parts of the region (esp southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky).
Next wild card is whether there will be snowflakes in the air on Friday night and Saturday morning over southeast Missouri. Possibly.
Data also shows some very light sprinkles or flurries late Thursday night for the area. Nothing major and chances are small.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No major rainfall over the coming days. A chance for some light precipitation Friday night and Saturday morning for our western counties in southeast Missouri.
A chance for light rain on Sunday afternoon and night. Rainfall totals from all of the above would be less than 0.20″. Some places may not even pick up a trace.
No major or significant winter storms. A chance for light snow or light rain/snow mix for parts of the area…mainly Friday morning (flurries for most of us) – Friday night and Saturday morning. This appears to be a western county event. That would be southeast Missouri. No significant accumulation of snow, if it occurs.
Maybe we can stop the winter weather forecast soon? We shall see!
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Once we get through the cold weather this weekend it appears we have a few milder days early next week. Expect temperatures to rebound nicely by Monday and Tuesday.
I am watching a system the first week of April for possible heavier precipitation. Long way off. Monitor updates.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
