Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 25th and 26th: Short update

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

March 25, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  A few storms could produce hail.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways early in the night.  Hail early in the evening is a possibility.  Small risk for damaging winds.  Tornado risk is low.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates early in the night.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%  Rain chances will slowly, but surely decrease overnight.
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to numerous before 11 pm and then becoming scattered after 11 pm.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B during the evening hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56   IL ~ 52 to 56   KY ~ 52 to 56    TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds:  West and southwest winds at 8 to 16 mph early and then west and southwest at 5 to 10 mph late.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 26, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
: Cloudy early and then perhaps a mix of sun and clouds.  Clouds may rule.  A chance for a few showers before 10 am.  Most of the area should be dry.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early in the day
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps spotty showers before 10 am.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 66     IL ~ 60 to 66    KY ~ 60 to 66    TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:12 p.m.
UV Index
: 3 to 6
Moonrise 
will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Becoming cloudy.  Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late.  Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways late.  Lightning possible late.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60% late  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Increasing coverage late at night
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 56   IL ~ 50 to 55    KY ~ 52 to 56    TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph early and then 7 to 14 mph after 3 am.  Gusty after 3 am.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 27, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be strong.  Monitor updates.  Breezy, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 80%  IL ~ 80%   KY ~ 80%   TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75     IL ~ 70 to 75     KY ~ 70 to 75   TN ~ 72 to 76
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Higher gusts likely.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:13 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 3
Moonrise 
will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m. New Moon

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  A good chance for evening showers and thunderstorms.  Activity should decrease late at night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to numerous.  Dwindling as the night wears on.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~ 50 to 55    KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph.  Winds becoming west at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m.  New Moon

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March 28, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A small chance for remaining showers.  Becoming partly sunny.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered early and then ending from west to east
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68    KY ~ 65 to 70   TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  Northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:14 p.m.
UV Index
: 6 to 8
Moonrise 
will be at 7:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:06 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated.  Will monitor fog chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52   IL ~ 46 to 52    KY ~ 46 to 52     TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds:  Northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 7:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:06 p.m. Waxing Crescent

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Saturday night:  Evening thunderstorms will slowly, but surely diminish.  A few showers and storms will be left into the early morning hours of Sunday.

A couple of storms this evening could produce hail and strong winds.  The overall severe weather risk is small.

Sunday and Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  I can’t rule out some lightning late Sunday night.

Monday and Tuesday:  Thunderstorms are possible.  I can’t rule out severe weather, but questions remain on the track of the low pressure center.

Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday night and Thursday:  Thunderstorms are possible.  Too early to know about severe weather concerns.

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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Your day by day analysis

 

 

 

 

Short update, because I was up until 4 am dealing with overnight storms in southeast Missouri.

Saturday night
Confidence:  High

Showers and thunderstorms will continue as an upper level low pushes through our region.  The severe risk is low, but not zero.  The main concern will be a few storms producing hail and gusty winds.

Showers and storms will taper overnight.  Perhaps a few showers remaining into the morning hours.

Expect lows mostly in the 50’s.

Sunday
Confidence:  High

I can’t rule out a few morning showers, but overall we should dry out.  Temperatures on Sunday should peak into the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Once the morning clouds depart, we will be left with a mix of sun and clouds.  Sunday is the pick day of the weekend.  That goes without saying!

Sunday night into Monday night
Confidence:  Medium

A new storm system will approach from the southwest on Sunday night and Monday.  We will have increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as we move deeper into Sunday night and especially on Monday.

Some of the thunderstorms could produce lightning and heavy downpours.  The overall severe weather threat again appears small.  Monitor updates.  There is at least some risk for severe weather in or near our region.  If the low tracks further south then our severe weather concerns diminish.

Another system should bring showers and storms as early as Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

I promised you can active pattern.  It is active.

 

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Find me on Twitter

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Thunderstorms Saturday evening could be strong.  A couple of storms could produce hail.  Overall, the severe weather threat is low.

Don’t forget to utilize the interactive weather radars.  The city-view radars are sprinkled across the entire area.  Use them to track thunderstorms.  You will notice there are many options included in the city view radars.  Hail tracking, rotation tracking, clickable warnings, and more.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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