Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 24th and 25th: Showers and thunderstorms.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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March 24, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms developing from the southwest and west.  Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.  The later into the night, the greater the chance for precipitation.  This will first begin over southeast Missouri and then spread east.  Most of the rain and storms will be after 10 pm.   The line of storms will likely wash out over southern IL and western KY.  That means it will become more spotty and showery and not a solid band.  Windy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways. Breezy conditions will continue with wind gusts above 30 mph.  A few of the storms over our western counties (closer to Poplar Bluff) would produce hail and high winds.  Small tornado risk.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  There is a non-zero risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  These high probabilities are mainly late tonight into the wee morning hours of Saturday. MO ~ 90%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered, but becoming widespread / numerous late.  Then, late tonight the whole line will wash out over southern IL and western KY.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.  Some rain will be possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 64    IL ~ 56 to 64    KY ~ 58 to 64     TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 4:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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March 25, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  It looks like Saturday won’t be a complete wash.  Several chances of showers and storms will be with us from morning into the evening.  A couple of bands of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could produce heavy downpours.  Monitor the severe weather risk.  One band will move through the region before sunrise and then several hours after sunrise.  Additional pockets of showers and storms should form throughout the day.  If you have outdoor plans then have a plan B.  Plan on at least some showers and storms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lighting.  Wet roadways.  Locally heavy downpours.  Hail.  I can’t rule out damaging winds (localized).  Tornado risk is small.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  I can’t rule out strong storms.  Severe weather risk is small, but not zero.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous early in the day and then quite a few showers and storms dotting radar throughout the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans.  I do expect at least periods of showers and storms Friday night into Saturday afternoon.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70   IL ~ 65 to 70    KY ~ 65 to 70    TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southwest winds at 14 to 28 mph and gusty.  Winds becoming more west/southwest during the afternoon.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:11 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4 (have to see how much sun we end up with)
Moonrise 
will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy early with showers and thunderstorms ending.  Becoming partly cloudy late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways early in the night.  Hail early in the evening is a possibility.  Small risk for damaging winds.  Tornado risk is low.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates early in the night.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60% (rain chances decreasing through the evening and night)
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered, but ending from west to east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and radars.  Some rain may linger into the night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54   IL ~ 48 to 54   KY ~ 50 to 55    TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds:  West and southwest winds at 8 to 16 mph early and then west and southwest at 5 to 10 mph late.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 26, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A slight chance for a shower before 10 am.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated.  Small shower risk.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated early in the day
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72    KY ~ 68 to 74    TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:12 p.m.
UV Index
: 6 to 8
Moonrise 
will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Becoming cloudy.  Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late.  Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways late.  Lightning possible late.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60% late  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Increasing coverage late at night
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56   IL ~ 52 to 56    KY ~ 52 to 56    TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph early and then 10 to 20 mph late
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 27, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be strong.  Monitor updates.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 80%  IL ~ 80%   KY ~ 80%   TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 72     IL ~ 65 to 72    KY ~ 65 to 74   TN ~ 65 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:13 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 3
Moonrise 
will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m. New Moon

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  A good chance for evening showers and thunderstorms.  Activity should decrease late at night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to numerous.  Dwindling as the night wears on.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54   IL ~ 48 to 54    KY ~ 48 to 54     TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph.  Winds becoming west at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m.  New Moon

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March 28, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy early and then becoming partly sunny.  A few showers possible before 8 am (mainly eastern counties).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered early and then ending from west to east
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68    KY ~ 65 to 70   TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  Northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:14 p.m.
UV Index
: 6 to 8
Moonrise 
will be at 7:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:06 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated.  Will monitor fog chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52   IL ~ 46 to 52    KY ~ 46 to 52     TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds:  Northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 7:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:06 p.m. Waxing Crescent

 

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beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Friday night and Saturday:  Thunderstorms are likely, especially late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Some of the storms could be on the heavy side.  Lightning is the main concern.  Heavy downpours, as well.  There is a smaller risk for damaging winds and hail.  The greatest concern would be near Poplar Bluff, Missouri and westward.  Lesser concerns as you drive east into southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.

The overall risk for severe weather on Friday night is small, but not zero.

Morning showers and storms will likely push east of the region by late morning and early afternoon.  Additional thunderstorms might for during the afternoon and evening hours.  If additional storms form then some of them could be intense with gusty winds, quarter size hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.  Monitor updates..

Sunday and Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Monday and Tuesday:  Thunderstorms are possible.  I can’t rule out severe weather, but questions remain on the track of the low pressure center.

Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday night and Thursday:  Thunderstorms are possible.  Too early to know about severe weather concerns.

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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Your day by day analysis

Friday night and Saturday
Confidence:  High

Our much anticipated cold front will arrive on Friday night and Saturday.  The front won’t actually exit the area until Saturday afternoon and evening.

An area of low pressure will move out of the Central Plains into the Missouri Valley.  The low will pass to our north and west.  That places us on the warm side of the system.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop on Friday afternoon and evening across western Missouri into Oklahoma and Arkansas.  Some of these storms will be severe with large hail and damaging winds.  A couple of tornadoes are also possible.  All of that will remain to our west.

The line of thunderstorms will reach southeast Missouri after 10 pm on Friday night and then track eastward into the wee hours of Saturday morning.

The risk of severe weather, in our local area Friday night, is small.  There won’t be much instability (CAPE) to work with.  I do expect locally heavy rain, gusty winds, lightning, and perhaps a couple of reports of hail.  That would primarily be over southeast Missouri.

The shower and thunderstorm activity will sweep across the entire region by Saturday morning.

Somewhat of a break or lull in the rain is possible after this main line moves to the east.  The question then becomes late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.  Will new thunderstorms develop?

Just because we have a lull does not mean there won’t be shower and thunderstorm activity on radar.  It just means coverage will be less than the early morning round.

The cold front will remain to our west early Saturday afternoon.  If the sun comes out from behind the clouds, then the atmosphere could become unstable.  As it stands, it appears modest instability will develop during the late morning and afternoon hours.  Monitor updates, in case the atmosphere is more unstable than anticipated.

New showers and thunderstorms will develop as the system slides east and northeast on Saturday afternoon and evening.  Some of these storms could produce nickel to quarter size hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.  The overall severe weather risk, on Saturday, appears small.  With that said, you should monitor updates.  It only takes one severe storm to ruin the day.

The rain will end by late Saturday afternoon and evening.

Gusty winds will be with us on Friday night into Saturday, as well. Gradient winds.  Gradient winds are caused by tightening pressure gradients.  High and low pressure centers are responsible for our winds.  When they strengthen and you have rapid drops or rises in pressure, then strong and gusty gradient winds develop.

Let’s look at some future-cast radars

This first image is for 12 AM on Saturday morning (Friday night).  You can see the band of showers and storms advancing through Missouri.  Keep in mind, this is one models opinion on placement.  There could be some showers and storms ahead of the line, as well.

Remember, these are models.  The radar forecast WILL NOT be exact.  Take the general idea of what they are showing.

The high resolution 3K NAM brings the rain in a bit earlier.  This is the 10 PM Friday night map from the 3K NAM

Let’s move through the night

Here is the 4 AM 3K NAM Model future-cast radar

Here is the 7 am future-cast radar from the NAM model guidance

Here is the 10 am future-cast radar.  What radar MIGHT look like.  It won’t be exact.

Here is the 1 pm future-cast radar.  You can see new storms developing.

Here is the 4 pm future-cast radar

Here is the 7 pm Saturday evening future-cast radar map.

 

Sunday
Confidence:  High

Sunday should be dry and mild.  I can’t rule out a couple of morning showers as you move from Evansville towards Hopkinsville.  Overall, the rain should have moved on off to the east by Sunday morning.

It will be mild on Sunday with high temperatures in the middle to upper 60’s and perhaps some lower 70’s.  I am forecasting a mix of sun and clouds.  If we end up with more sunshine, then lower 70’s are a good bet.  It will feel like spring.  Sunday is our pick day of the weekend.

Sunday night into Monday night
Confidence:  Medium

A new storm system will approach from the southwest on Sunday night and Monday.  We will have increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as we move deeper into Sunday night and especially on Monday.

Some of the thunderstorms could produce lightning and heavy downpours.  The overall severe weather threat again appears small.  Monitor updates.  There is at least some risk for severe weather in or near our region.  If the low tracks further south then our severe concerns diminish.

The low should track to our south on Monday.  That places us on the cool side of the system.

Another system should bring showers and storms as early as Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

I promised you can active pattern.  It is active.

Here is the Thursday morning GFS precipitation map.  This is for 1 AM on Thursday.

 

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Here is the official NOAA rainfall prediction

Keep in mind, it is almost impossible to predict exactly where thunderstorms might drop heavier totals.  Take this graphic as a broad-brush idea for totals.

This first map is through Sunday morning

Here is the seven day rainfall map

We need this rain in Missouri.

Here is the latest SPI index map.  See how dry some areas are?  It could be worse, but I would like to see some of this dryness knocked down.

This map reflects the last 30 days.

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Saturday low temperature forecast

Saturday high temperature forecast

whatamiconcered

Showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern Friday night into Saturday.  Although widespread severe weather is not anticipated, some areas could pick up heavy downpours.  Isolated severe thunderstorm risk.  If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, then at least have alternative plans in mind.

Lighting will be a concern.

Don’t forget to utilize the interactive weather radars.  The city-view radars are sprinkled across the entire area.  Use them to track thunderstorms.  You will notice there are many options included in the city view radars.  Hail tracking, rotation tracking, clickable warnings, and more.

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

2014-11-24_13-59-16

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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