Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 22nd and 23rd: Watching a weekend storm system

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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March 22, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely  none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 34 to 38   IL ~ 32 to 38    KY ~ 34 t o 40   TN ~ 34 to 42
Winds:  East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 3:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 23, 2017

Updated at 9 am


Thursday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms ending from northwest to southeast.  Wide range of temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 80%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.  Rain likely for portions of the region.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65   IL ~ 54 to 58    KY ~ 54 to 58   TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds:  East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:09 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2
Moonrise 
will be at 4:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A slight chance for showers.  Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Monitor rain chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60   IL ~ 54 to 58    KY ~ 55 to 60     TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  Southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 4:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:42 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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March 24, 2017
Friday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warmer.  Windy. The current thinking is the rain will hold off until Friday night and Saturday.  Monitor updates.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but monitor updated forecasts.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74    IL ~ 66 to 72    KY ~68 to 74    TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 35 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:10 p.m.
UV Index
: 3 to 6
Moonrise 
will be at 4:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Showers and storms increasing after 11 pm.  Windy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered, but becoming more numerous late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.  Some rain will be possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62     IL ~ 56 to 62    KY ~ 56 to 62     TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 4:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 25, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  A few storms could be heavy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lighting.  Wet roadways.  Locally heavy downpours.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  I can’t rule out strong storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 90%  IL ~ 90%   KY ~ 90%   TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70    IL ~ 65 to 70    KY ~ 65 to 70    TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southwest winds at 14 to 28 mph and gusty
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:11 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 3
Moonrise 
will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 54   IL ~ 46 to 54   KY ~ 50 to 54     TN ~ 50 to 54
Winds:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph becoming west at 7 to 14 mph.  Gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 26, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated.  Small shower risk.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72    KY ~ 68 to 74    TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds:  Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:12 p.m.
UV Index
: 6 to 8
Moonrise 
will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54   IL ~ 48 to 52    KY ~ 48 to 54    TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 27, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 72     IL ~ 68 to 72    KY ~ 68 to 74   TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:13 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m. New Moon

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance for thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60   IL ~ 55 to 60    KY ~ 55 to 60     TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m.  New Moon

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday night into Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Friday and Saturday:  Monitor updates.  Strong storms are possible.  Still a bit early to know the extent of the concerns.  Thus, monitor updates.

Sunday and Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

 

Your day by day analysis

Wednesday night into Thursday night:
Confidence:  Medium

 

I have had a difficult time with the Wednesday night into Thursday night forecast.  There are weak disturbances that are quickly moving through the jet stream flow.  They have been popping some showers and guidance continues to insist that more showers could develop.  This is especially true on Thursday and Thursday night.

I can’t completely rule out a few showers developing on Wednesday night or Thursday.  Perhaps the odds favor our western and northern counties.  That would be from Poplar Bluff, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL.  The overall risk for showers is fairly low.  No severe weather to worry about through Thursday night.

Friday into Saturday night
Confidence:  Medium

 

Our much advertised storm system (been talking about this one for ten days) will arrive late Friday into Saturday.  This system will increase shower and thunderstorm chances.

The question about severe weather remains uncertain.  There are some indications that strong storms could develop late Friday night or Saturday.  Wind shear will be quite strong.  CAPE values are marginal (although this could change).  CAPE is a measure of energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Friday night into Saturday.  The cold front should pass through the area on Saturday.  You can expect showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold.  Again, some storms could be strong.  Monitor updated forecasts.

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, then have alternative plans.  Rain is a good bet.

The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined a large chunk of real estate in a severe weather risk for Saturday.  Here is the map (updated on Wednesday afternoon).  Since this is a day three outlook, it is likely that some adjustments will be made to this graphic.  Again, monitor updates.

The yellow zone is the greatest risk.

Again, this will likely be adjusted with time.

 

Sunday and Sunday night
Confidence:  Medium

At this time, Sunday is shaping up to be mostly dry.  There is a 20% for showers, but the bulk of the rain will have likely move off to our east.

Another system will bring increasing chances for showers and storms on Monday/Tuesday.

 

 

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Here is the official NOAA rainfall prediction

This graphic does not include any rain that falls on Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night.

 

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Thursday low temperature forecast

Thursday high temperature forecast

whatamiconcered

I am monitoring thunderstorm chances for Friday night and Saturday.  I can’t rule out severe weather, but that is uncertain.  Monitor updates, as always.

Don’t forget to utilize the interactive weather radars.  The city-view radars are sprinkled across the entire area.  Use them to track thunderstorms.  You will notice there are many options included in the city view radars.  Hail tracking, rotation tracking, clickable warnings, and more.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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