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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
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- Warmer today. Nice day.
- A light freeze is possible Friday night.
- Rain chances increase Sunday and Monday.
- Rain chances increase again next Friday or Saturday.
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Today: No
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Tomorrow: No.
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Confidence rating explained.
- High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
- Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
- Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Today through Sunday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Sunday night and Monday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
Monday through Thursday
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. I am monitoring Monday for a few thunderstorms. Lightning is the main concern.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here
March 22, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Milder. A nice day. Gusty winds, at times.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest wind 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. A light freeze is possible in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A light freeze may impact sensitive plants.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:09 PM
Moonrise: 9:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:13 AM
March 23, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild temperatures. A nice day, overall.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Chilly. Increasing clouds through the night. A chance of a light shower after 3 AM. Best chance will be across southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% Southern IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: A few light showers over southeast Missouri. Smaller chances elsewhere. This would be late at night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways late at night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:09 PM
Moonrise: 10:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:48 AM
March 24, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. Rain totals Sunday to Monday in the 0.30″ to 0.60″ range. Locally higher if thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous showers possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of thunderstorms. Steady or rising temperatures. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% Southern IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:10 PM
Moonrise: 11:28 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:24 AM
Monday: Rain showers likely. A thunderstorm is possible. Turning colder with falling temperatures. Highs in the middle to upper 50’s. Lows in the lower to middle 30’s. Winds above 20 mph are possible.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Colder. A chance of a light freeze Tuesday night. Highs in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Lows in the lower to middle 30’s. North winds at 7 to 14 mph and gusty.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. A few clouds Wednesday night with lows in the lower to middle 40’s. Wind gusts to 15 mph
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Graphic-cast
These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.
Missouri
Illinois
Kentucky
Tennessee
Wind forecast
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today and tomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday through Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning. For now, this does not appear to be a severe weather event.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com Click the personal notification settings tab. Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar. This will show you the precipitation type.
Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type
You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here..
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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- A nice day for the region!
- A light freeze possible Friday night. Another one possible Monday and Tuesday night.
- Rain chances ramp up on late Saturday night, Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday. Possibly a thunderstorm or two. Not anticipating severe weather.
- Another system should bring showers and possibly a few thunderstorms next Friday/Saturday. Plenty of time to monitor that event.
Current conditions.
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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
I raised temperatures slightly on Saturday and Sunday.
Does the forecast require action?
Yes. Avoid flooded roadways. Many rivers are flooding.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Forecast discussion.
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Good morning, fellow weather enthusiasts.
I hope you had a nice week. We have welcomed spring into the region. I know many of you are happy about that.
Speaking of spring, we have the latest preliminary April outlook from the long-range forecast team.
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Discussion
Preliminary April temperature and precipitation outlook
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Temperatures
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NOAA released their spring flood outlook yesterday. No surprises here. Locally, my biggest concern is the Mississippi River.
This graphic indicates an above-normal risk of flooding during the spring months.
You can read more about their outlook at this link. Click here.
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No surprise based on soil moisture content.
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Today will be dry across the region. Quite a bit of sunshine. Mild temperatures. No complaints about today’s weather!
We will have a dry night, as well.
Temperatures tonight may briefly drop below freezing at a few locations. Frost is also a possibility. If you have sensitive plants then keep that in mind.
Saturday will be another nice day. Quite a bit of sunshine. We may see an increase in high clouds during the PM hours. No rain.
Rain chances begin to ramp up late Saturday night into Monday.
The greatest rain coverage will likely be Sunday night into early Monday.
A few non-severe thunderstorms are also possible. Lightning would be the primary concern.
Rain totals won’t be all that heavy. I am forecasting 0.30″ to 0.60″ with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms.
Winds will become gusty Sunday and Monday. Wind gusts above 20 mph are possible.
We dry out Monday night into Thursday.
We may have to deal with a few spots dropping below freezing on Monday and Tuesday night. Winds Monday night should be gusty enough to prevent frost. A light freeze is, however, possible.
Temperatures being to moderate on Wednesday and that will take us into next weekend.
Another storm system is forecast to spread showers and thunderstorms back into the region by next Friday or Saturday.
You can see that system on the GFS model guidance. This is for next Friday at 7 PM.
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This one is for next Sunday evening. The event may linger Friday into Monday. A couple of waves of low pressure are possible. Still a bit early for confidence levels to be all that great on the duration of the rain event.
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Here is an animation of that event.
You can see the area of low pressure well to our north. That places us in the warm sector of the storm. Snow on the backside (blue). Green is rain.
Fairly tight storm system. That would mean gusty winds.
This run of the GFS shows one cold front that brings an end to the rain by Saturday morning.
The other run of the GFS lingers rain longer. Again, a bit too soon for details.
Plan on at least a chance of showers next Friday and Saturday. Hopefully, Sunday will be dry.
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Have a super weekend! Rain or shine.
Freeze conditions?
A light freeze is possible tonight (Friday). Frost, as well. Lows will range from 30 to 35. Some sensitive plants may be impacted.
I have been monitoring Monday and Tuesday night for freeze conditions.
For now, it appears that 30’s are possible both night. The coldest night will likely be Tuesday night. The guidance has backed off widespread 20’s. With that said, if you have concerns about freeze conditions then I would suggest monitoring updates.
Dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
This is the NAM model guidance.
It does not go out as far as the GFS model (second animation below).
You can see the NAM brings some showers into the region late Saturday night and especially on Sunday.
It won’t be exact, but you get the general idea that rain showers will be increasing as we move deeper into the weekend.
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Here is the GFS model guidance. It goes out further in time.
Time-stamp upper left.
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Precipitation dates to monitor.
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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end
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.
The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.
NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
The Ohio Valley video
Long-range This video.
The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)
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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.
** NOTE: See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these. They may not always agree **
The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures. The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.
The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.
Days six through ten temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days six through ten precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.
Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 11th through the 18th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″
This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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March temperature and precipitation outlook
April temperature and precipitation outlook
May temperature and precipitation outlook
Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.
Temperature outlook
Precipitation outlook
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Our Guest WeatherBrains tonight are geographers who study the intersections of physical science and social science as it relates to tornadoes and all meteorological hazards. Dr. Stephen Strader and Dr. Walker Ashley, welcome to the show!
Tonight’s first Guest Panelist is from the Carolina Weather Group Podcast. He spent 15 years as a professional firefighter. In 2017, he decided to start pursuing weather and started a blog. He joined Carolina Weather Group in 2018. Chris Jackson, welcome!
Also joining us as Guest Panelist is a Mississippi State University meteorology student who is also in charge of this year’s Southeast Severe Storms Symposium. Alex Forbes, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- National Weather Podcast Month
- Vortex Southeast
- 2019 Southeast Severe Storms Symposium
- Correlation between mobile homes and tornado fatalities
- Mapping of mobile homes and utilizing it on-air during severe weather
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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