Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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March 21, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link—
Forecast:  Showers and thunderstorms ending.  Turning colder from north to south.  Rain chances will diminish through the night north to south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Gusty storms.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor evening updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  These rain chances are from 7 pm through 1 am  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous evening showers and storms.  Diminishing coverage through the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would have a plan B.  Some showers and storms possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 35 to 42   IL ~ 35 to 42    KY ~ 36 to 44     TN ~ 36 to 44
Winds:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 2:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:52 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 22, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.   Cool.  Breezy, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but I will monitor shower chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 44 to 54   IL ~ 44 to 52    KY ~ 48 to 54    TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:53 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:08 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 4
Moonrise will be at 3:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:45 p.m. Waning Crescent

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely  none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 34 to 38   IL ~ 32 to 38    KY ~ 34 t o 40   TN ~ 34 to 42
Winds:  East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 3:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 23, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to patchy wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.  I can’t rule out some showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 56 to 62   IL ~ 54 to 60    KY ~ 55 to 64    TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds:  East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:09 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 3
Moonrise will be at 4:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A slight chance for showers.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Monitor rain chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54   IL ~ 48 to 54    KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 52 to 54
Winds:  Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 4:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:42 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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March 24, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warmer.  The current thinking is the rain will hold off until Friday night and Saturday.  Monitor updates.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but monitor updated forecasts.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 72    IL ~ 66 to 72    KY ~66 to 72    TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 25 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:10 p.m.
UV Index: 3 to 6
Moonrise will be at 4:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Showers and storms increasing after 11 pm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered, but becoming more numerous late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.  Some rain will be possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62     IL ~ 56 to 62    KY ~ 56 to 62     TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 4:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 25, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  A few storms could be heavy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lighting.  Wet roadways.  Locally heavy downpours.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  I can’t rule out strong storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 80%  IL ~ 80%   KY ~ 80%   TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70    IL ~ 65 to 70    KY ~ 65 to 70    TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southwest winds at 14 to 28 mph and gusty
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:11 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 3
Moonrise will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 54   IL ~ 46 to 54   KY ~ 50 to 54     TN ~ 50 to 54
Winds:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph becoming west at 7 to 14 mph.  Gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 26, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A slight chance for a shower.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 656     IL ~ 62 to 66    KY ~ 62 to 66    TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:12 p.m.
UV Index: 6 to 8
Moonrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52   IL ~ 46 to 52    KY ~ 46 to 52     TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 27, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65    KY ~ 60 to 65    TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:13 p.m.
UV Index: 6 to 8
Moonrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m. New Moon

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance for thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60   IL ~ 55 to 60    KY ~ 55 to 60     TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m.  New Moon

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Tuesday night:  Thunderstorms will come to an end.  A few strong evening storms are possible.

Wednesday into Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Friday and Saturday:  Monitor updates.  Strong storms are possible.  Still a bit early to know the extent of the concerns.  Thus, monitor updates.

Sunday and Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link—

Your day by day analysis

Tuesday night into Wednesday night:
Confidence:  High

Showers and storms will come to an end.  This will leave us with chilly temperatures.  Lows by Wednesday morning should dip into the 34 to 38 degree range over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Mostly in the 38 to 46 degree range, elsewhere.

Guidance has been all over the place with shower chances on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

I have removed rain chances, for the most part.  There is a very small chance for isolated light showers.

We should have a mix of sun and clouds Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Thursday and Thursday night:
Confidence:  Medium

Here is an interactive map from the March 9th tornadoes.  There may be some tornadoes that were missed and not included.

Link

http://www.weather.gov/pah/mar92017severereview

A weak system will pass through the region on Thursday.  This should spark a few scattered light showers.  I am not anticipating severe weather.  Perhaps a few showers.

Future-cast high resolution NAM model guidance shows a few showers (green areas).

This first image is for early Thursday morning

This next image is for 10 am on Thursday.  Still some time to monitor the rain chances.  This won’t be exact.  This is just a one model’s idea of where showers might be placed.

Friday into Saturday night:
Confidence:  Medium

The weather heads downhill as we approach the first half of the weekend.  A strong storm system is forecast to push out of the southwest United States.

An area of low pressure should track through Missouri on Saturday.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this system.  A few heavy storms are possible.  It is still a bit early to know whether severe weather is a concern.  Monitor updates, as always.

There remain some question on timing.  The bulk of the rain will likely hold off until late Friday night into Saturday evening.

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday then have a plan B.

Here is what the GFS model guidance is showing.  The red L is the area of low pressure.  We should be on the warm side of this system.

Green and yellow represent showers and thunderstorms.  Darker green is heavier rain.  Yellow is even heavier.

This is the weather map for 7 pm on Friday.  You can see the low over the Texas Panhandle moving northeast.

This next image is for 7 am on Saturday morning.  You can see a band of showers and storms moving into our local area.  The low continues to move east and northeast.

This next image is for 7 pm on Saturday.  Showers and storms in our local area.  You can see the low over western Missouri.  The low is moving northeast.

This next image is for 7 am on Sunday.  You can see the rain moving out of our local area.

I am not sure about severe weather with this event.  CAPE values appear low.  That could change.  Wind fields will be strong.

Monitor updates.

Another rain and storm event is possible as early as Monday/Tuesday.

Active pattern ahead of us.

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Here is the official NOAA rainfall prediction

This graphic does not include any rain that falls on Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night.

Additional showers and storms will be possible on Thursday into Saturday.  Thursday and Thursday night’s activity will likely be limited.

Heavier storms are possible on Friday night and Saturday.  Highest coverage might end up being Saturday.  Still some time to tweak the timing.

The GFS rainfall forecast for the weekend event (model)

The GEM rainfall forecast for the weekend event (model)

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Wednesday low temperature forecast

Wednesday high temperature forecast

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link—

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions