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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
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- Cool temperatures today.
- A light freeze is possible Friday night.
- Rain chances increase Sunday and Monday.
- Freeze possible next Monday and Tuesday night.
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Today: No
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Tomorrow: No.
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Confidence rating explained.
- High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
- Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
- Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Today through Saturday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? No.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
Sunday through Wednesday
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No. I am monitoring Monday night. A rain/snow mix is possible. No accumulation.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Some lightning will be possible this weekend. The focus will likely be on Sunday afternoon into early Monday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. I will monitor the Sunday/Monday system. Severe is possible.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here
March 21, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cloudier over our eastern counties vs western. Small chance of a sprinkle over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Cooler. Breezy, at times.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 48° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest wind 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 High where the sun appears. Cloud areas will remain in the 1 to 3 range.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Evening clouds departing. Mostly clear. Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 35° SE MO 33° to 35° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 36°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:08 PM
Moonrise: 8:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:38 AM
March 22, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest wind 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. A light freeze is possible in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A light freeze may impact sensitive plants.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:09 PM
Moonrise: 9:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:13 AM
March 23, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Chilly. Increasing clouds through the night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 32° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% Southern IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A small chance of late night showers over southeast Missouri.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways late at night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:09 PM
Moonrise: 10:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:48 AM
Sunday: Rain showers likely. Breezy. Rising temperatures Sunday night. Rain likely Sunday night with a chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the middle 50’s to lower 60’s. Lows in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s. Winds above 20 mph are possible.
Monday: Rain showers likely. A small chance the rain may briefly mix with snow Monday night with no accumulation. Turning colder with falling temperatures. Highs in the middle 50’s to upper 50’s. Lows in the lower to middle 30’s. Winds above 20 mph are possible.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Colder. Highs in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Lows in the middle 30’s. Winds less than 15 mph.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Graphic-cast
These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.
Missouri
Illinois
Kentucky
Tennessee
Wind forecast
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today and tomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday through Wednesday: I am watching Sunday and Sunday night. Hail is possible. A few severe storms.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com Click the personal notification settings tab. Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar. This will show you the precipitation type.
Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type
You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here..
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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- Cool temperatures.
- Warmer Friday. Cold Friday night. Some areas will dip into the lower 30’s.
- Rain chances ramp up on late Saturday night, Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday.
Current conditions.
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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
I had to decrease temperatures today and tonight. I also shaved a few degrees off Friday night’s low temperatures.
I lowered Sunday’s temperatures because of rain and clouds.
A light freeze is possible Friday night.
Does the forecast require action?
Yes. Avoid flooded roadways. Many rivers are flooding.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Forecast discussion.
Note: Major river flooding continues in some areas. The Mississippi River continues to rise. Be sure and check out the latest crest forecast numbers. There may be more than one crest.
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The region picked up 0.05″ to 0.20″ of precipitation over the last 24 hours. A few spots picked up a bit more.
It has been a wet year, thus far.
Here are the year to date rainfall totals.
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Let’s look at the anomaly map.
Widespread well above normal rainfall has occurred over the Eastern United States.
This is one reason rivers are flooding.
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For good measure, here is the month to date temperature anomaly map, as well.
We have been cooler than normal, thus far.
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A cold front has been moving through the region over the last 24 hours.
You can see that front here on the morning weather map.
That will leave us with a mix of sun and clouds today.
Clouds will linger over southeast Illinois into the eastern half of western Kentucky. Elsewhere, we should see a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be slightly below normal today across most of the area. Nothing extreme. Fairly typical March day. The second day of spring!
There will be a large range of temperatures today. Where clouds remain thick you can expect highs mostly in the 40’s. Elsewhere, highs in the 50’s will occur. A cool day, overall.
A chilly night ahead of us. Widespread 33 to 36-degree readings for the region. It does appear most areas will remain above freezing tonight.
Dry weather will be with us through Saturday. That is good news.
At one point it appeared that widespread 60’s would be in the cards on Friday and Sunday. I had to shave some degrees off the forecast highs both days.
Friday will deliver widespread middle to upper 50’s over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Meanwhile, most of southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee should climb into the upper 50’s to middle 60’s. The middle 60’s would likely remain closer to the Poplar Bluff area.
We should have quite a bit of sunshine on Friday, as well. It will feel warmer with the March sun angle.
Friday night will be cold. Those with sensitive plants might want to monitor the temperature forecast. I am forecasting widespread 30 to 35 degrees. A few of the favored cold spots could dip into the 28 to 30-degree range. That would most likely be over southern Illinois (further north you travel the better chance of the upper 20’s) and northwest Kentucky closer to the Evansville, Indiana area.
Saturday will deliver some sun and widespread upper 50’s to around 60 degrees. Some high clouds will be noted moving in from the west during the afternoon and evening hours. These clouds will thicken Saturday night.
A new weather system approaches the region on Sunday and Monday. This system is forecast to bring additional rain chances to the region. This event may be a bit heavier than the previous one. Some storms could be severe.
You can see that system on the Saturday morning weather map. We will likely remain dry during the daylight hours on Saturday.
A few thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Lightning would be the primary concern. Hail is another concern. Lower risk for damaging winds and tornadoes.
Plan on 40% to 60% rain chances Sunday, Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night. The rain will end west to east Monday night.
There will be a colder surge of air Monday night that could briefly change the rain to a rain/snow mix. No concerns for accumulating snow.
I did shave a few degrees off of Sunday’s highs because of clouds and rain.
Saturday will be the pick day of the weekend.
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Freeze conditions?
I have been monitoring Monday and Tuesday night for freeze conditions. The GFS model guidance has been the coldest with this event. It has a cold bias.
For now, it appears that 30’s are possible both night. The coldest night will likely be Tuesday night. The guidance has backed off widespread 20’s. With that said, if you have concerns about freeze conditions then I would suggest monitoring updates.
Some areas will likely dip below freezing on at least Tuesday night.
Dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.
Another chance of rain around March 28th/29th.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
This is the NAM model guidance.
It does not go out as far as the GFS model (second animation below).
You can see the NAM brings some showers into the region late Saturday night and especially on Sunday.
It won’t be exact, but you get the general idea that rain showers will be increasing as we move deeper into the weekend.
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Here is the GFS model guidance. It goes out further in time.
Time-stamp upper left.
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Precipitation dates to monitor. March and April.
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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end
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.
The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.
NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
The Ohio Valley video
Long-range This video.
The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)
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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.
** NOTE: See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these. They may not always agree **
The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures. The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.
The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.
Days six through ten temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days six through ten precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.
Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 11th through the 18th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″
This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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March temperature and precipitation outlook
April temperature and precipitation outlook
May temperature and precipitation outlook
Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.
Temperature outlook
Precipitation outlook
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Our Guest WeatherBrains tonight are geographers who study the intersections of physical science and social science as it relates to tornadoes and all meteorological hazards. Dr. Stephen Strader and Dr. Walker Ashley, welcome to the show!
Tonight’s first Guest Panelist is from the Carolina Weather Group Podcast. He spent 15 years as a professional firefighter. In 2017, he decided to start pursuing weather and started a blog. He joined Carolina Weather Group in 2018. Chris Jackson, welcome!
Also joining us as Guest Panelist is a Mississippi State University meteorology student who is also in charge of this year’s Southeast Severe Storms Symposium. Alex Forbes, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- National Weather Podcast Month
- Vortex Southeast
- 2019 Southeast Severe Storms Symposium
- Correlation between mobile homes and tornado fatalities
- Mapping of mobile homes and utilizing it on-air during severe weather
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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