Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 20th and 21st: Active pattern developing

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Wide range of temperatures from north to south.  Cooler north and milder south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Small hail.
Is severe weather expected?  Most likely, no.  A few storms could produce small hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor radars.  Some scattered thunderstorms are possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 58 (cooler towards Farmington, MO and warmer in the Bootheel of Missouri)  IL ~ 46 to 55 (cooler towards Mt Vernon and milder near the Ohio River)    KY ~ 52 to 56     TN ~ 55 to  60
Winds:  West and southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  Winds north of the front will switch out of the north at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 1:44 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:04 p.m.  Last Quarter

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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March 21, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few strong storms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.  A few strong storms possible with strong winds and hail.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  A few storms could produce high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Perhaps have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 66  IL ~ 58 to 65    KY ~ 60 to 65    TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  Winds south of the front will be out of the west and southwest.  Once the front moves through your location the winds will turn out of the north and northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Sunrise will be at 6:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:08 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 3
Moonrise 
will be at 2:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:52 p.m. Waning Crescent

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Rain chances will be highest over far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  Turning colder from north to south.  Rain chances will diminish through the night north to south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Gusty storms.  I can’t rule out a few storms reaching severe levels with hail and strong winds.  This would most likely be early in the evening.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  A few storms could reach severe levels.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous during the evening hours and then decreasing chances overnight.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would have a plan B.  Some showers and storms possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 32 to 42   IL ~ 32 to 42    KY ~ 32 to 42     TN ~ 32 to 42
Winds:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 2:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:52 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 22, 2017
Wednesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.   Cool.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but I will monitor shower chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 44 to 52   IL ~ 44 to 52    KY ~ 46 to 54    TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:53 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:08 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 3:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:45 p.m. Waning Crescent

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A stray shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 32 to 38   IL ~ 32 to 38    KY ~ 32 t o 40   TN ~ 34 to 42
Winds:  East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 3:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 23, 2017
Thursday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to patchy wet roadways.  Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64   IL ~ 58 to 64    KY ~ 58 to 64    TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds:  East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:09 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 4:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A slight chance for showers.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Monitor rain chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 58   IL ~ 52 to 58    KY ~ 52 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds:  Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 4:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:42 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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March 24, 2017
Friday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A few showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 03%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 72    IL ~ 66 to 72    KY ~66 to 72    TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:10 p.m.
UV Index
: 3 to 6
Moonrise 
will be at 4:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.  Some rain will be possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 62     IL ~ 58 to 62    KY ~ 58 to 62     TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 4:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 25, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lighting.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68    IL ~ 64 to 68    KY ~ 64 to 68    TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South and southwest winds at 12 to 24 mph and gusty
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:11 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 3
Moonrise 
will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58    KY ~ 54 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph becoming west
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 26, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65    KY ~ 60 to 65    TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds:  Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:12 p.m.
UV Index
: 5 to 8
Moonrise 
will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52   IL ~ 46 to 52    KY ~ 46 to 52     TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 27, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65    KY ~ 60 to 65    TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:13 p.m.
UV Index
: 6 to 8
Moonrise 
will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m. New Moon

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance for thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60   IL ~ 55 to 60    KY ~ 55 to 60     TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m.  New Moon

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Monday night:  A few thunderstorms with lightning.  The risk for severe weather is small.  I can’t rule out some reports of hail, as well.

Tuesday and Tuesday night:  Some thunderstorms are possible.  There is a chance for a few strong to perhaps severe storms.  There remains some question on instability.  Some thunderstorms could produce hail and high winds.  Monitor updates on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday into Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Friday and Saturday:  Monitor updates.  Strong storms are possible.  Still a bit early to know the extent of the concerns.  Thus, monitor updates.

Sunday and Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

Your day by day analysis

Monday night:
Confidence:  High

A frontal boundary will sink southward into our region on Monday night.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front.  Lightning will be the main concern, but a couple of storms could also produce gusty winds and hail.

The severe weather threat, for Monday night, is small.

Here is the future-cast radar from the HRRR model guidance

Not much showing up on the HRRR.  A few scattered showers and storms.

Here is the high resolution NAM guidance.  Again, not much showing up.  I have capped rain chances, on Monday night, at around 20%.

Tuesday and Tuesday night:
Confidence:  Medium

A cold front will settle southward through the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Peak rain chances should arrive on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

You can see the cold front on this map.  Light green equals spotty showers or storms.  Dark green represents likely rain and thunderstorm chances.

This first map is for Monday night at 7 pm.

This next map is for Tuesday at 7 am.  Perhaps a few scattered showers and storms.

This next map is for Tuesday evening.  You can see the dark green over our area.  Perhaps an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity.

We do have at least some risk for strong to severe storms on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Confidence is rather low, on this part of the forecast.  The main area of concern would be our southern counties (see map below).

There will be some instability to work with.  The overall setup, at least right now, appears questionable.

Monitor updates on Tuesday into Tuesday night.  A few strong to severe storms can’t be ruled out.  The main concern would be lightning, nickel size hail and gusty winds.  Again, as always, monitor updates.

The yellow zone is a slight risk.  That is a level 3 threat.  Three out of six.  Slight risk actually means that a few severe storms are likely to occur, but reports of severe weather should not be widespread.

The dark green zone is where there is a level two risk.  That would be two out of six.  Low end risk.  The light green zone is where general sub-severe storms are anticipated.

Let’s take a quick look at the future-cast radar from the high resolution NAM guidance.

This is what radar MIGHT look like on Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  Remember, this is a models opinion.

This first map is for 4 PM on Tuesday.  You can see the high res NAM guidance pops some showers and storms.  Brighter colors represent heavier showers and storms.

This next image is for 7 PM on Tuesday

This next image is for 1 AM on Wednesday morning.

The bottom line is that some showers and storms over possible on Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  This will occur as a frontal boundary pushes from north to south through the region.

A few heavy storms are possible.

Wednesday into Thursday night:
Confidence:  Low

Clouds may linger on Wednesday and Thursday.  A few showers, as well. I am not overly confident on the shower chances Wednesday into Thursday.  Plan on at least some clouds.

The GFS guidance is showing some showers, as well.  I may need to tweak the Wednesday and Thursday forecast.  Keep that in mind.

Friday into Saturday:
Confidence:  Medium

A strong storm system is anticipated to develop to our west on Thursday night into Friday night/Saturday.

An area of low pressure should push out of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.  This low will deepen as it moves eastward.

The track of the low is still in question.

It appears we should be on the warm side of the system.  That would mean thunderstorms.  There are some signals for strong storms, but this system is still several days away.  I would suggest monitoring the latest forecasts as we push towards the end of the week.

We can see, on this 500 mb wind map, the system being carved out in the southwest United States.  This is the map for Thursday evening.  You can see how the jet stream dives southward near the four-corners region.  This is the beginning of the system gaining strength.

Our winds will turn out of the southwest as we move into Thursday and Thursday night.  Increasing moisture levels will accompany the southerly winds.

This next map is surface CAPE (energy for thunderstorms) map for Saturday.  Some CAPE in our region.  I will need to fine tune the timing of rain and storm chances.  At this time, rain showers are possible as early as Thursday night and Friday morning.  Thunderstorm chances would increase ahead of the warm front and then along the cold front on either Friday or Saturday (perhaps both).

The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined portions of the south-lands for strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday.

This will change between now and Friday.  Let’s monitor it.

 

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Here is the official NOAA rainfall prediction

Rainfall totals will vary greatly.  If thunderstorms develop, then some areas could receive locally heavier totals.

It is possible, based on the latest data, that some areas receive little in the way of rainfall from this event.  I will show you some of the graphics.

Here is the official NOAA rainfall forecast

This first graphic is through Wednesday morning.

The seven day rainfall forecast (from NOAA)

We should have a few chances for rain over the coming seven days.  This is a broad-brushed outlook

Let’s look at some of the model guidance.

Generally, the model guidance is showing the best chance for rain over southeast Missouri into parts of western Kentucky and western Tennessee.  The entire region, however, does have a chance for some measurable rainfall between now and Wednesday morning.  Additional chances on Friday and Saturday.

This first image is the low resolution NAM model

This next image is the high resolution NAM guidance.  In theory, the higher resolution model should be more accurate.

The high resolution NAM is picking up on thunderstorm activity.  That is why you are seeing the high totals.

This next image is the GFS model guidance

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Tuesday low temperature forecast

Tuesday high temperature forecast

whatamiconcered

The main concern, over the coming seven days, will be periodic chances for thunderstorms.  Spring is here and that means that we have to think about severe weather.  Forecasts can change.  Monitor updated information.  This is especially true on days where I mention the risk for strong or severe storms.

Don’t forget to utilize the interactive weather radars.  The city-view radars are sprinkled across the entire area.  Use them to track thunderstorms.  You will notice there are many options included in the city view radars.  Hail tracking, rotation tracking, clickable warnings, and more.

 

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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