Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 16th and 17th: Rain chances.

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Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.

The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology.  Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage.  Visit them on their website and on Facebook.  You can also find them on Twitter.  They are located in Almo, Kentucky.  Phone 270-718-0245

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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I always talk about how great all of you are. The best weather followers around. You rarely complain, even when the forecast does not pan out. You ask great questions, you try to learn the why behind the what, post great photos, send in lots of storm reports, and speak kindly of Beau Dodson Weather (powered by the Fire Horn) and Weather Talk. I know that, because people tell me when I am out and about!

Many of you may remember, back in December, I announced we were going to add a new charity that the Shadow Angel Foundation and Weather Talk would help support. That charity was the Guardian Family Services, located in Metropolis, Illinois. A women’s and children’s shelter.

We have been helping, for ten or more years, Child Watch of western Kentucky and PASAC of western Kentucky. We deliver them brand new GUND terry bears and stuffed animals. The counselors use them to help the children feel more comfortable and relaxed through a difficult process. Although we never meet the children, the counselors tell us the teddy bears have helped them tremendously.

We were able to add a new charity, because we had quite a few people sign up for Weather Talk. A portion of the profits is always used for local charities.

We announced a matching fund raiser, up to $7500.00. Shane Parker, Bear on the Air (as many of us who grew up with him knew him), held a Super Bowl Bear-B-Que. He raised over $2000.00. Rita Gower, and others at Guardian Family Services, raised additional funds. There is one more fund raiser coming up, as well.

They raised more than $8000.00! Exceeding their goal.

On Wednesday, we delivered them a check from all of us (that includes all of our subscribers and myself).

Thank you, everyone, for supporting Beau Dodson Weather, Weather Talk, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.

Here is the WSIL video story
http://www.wsiltv.com/story/34899385/donor-gives-metropolis-women-and-children-8000-gift

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March 16, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A 30% chance for showers.  Cool.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 38 to 44     IL ~ 38 to 44    KY ~ 38 to 44     TN ~ 38 to 44
Winds:  South at 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  Unlikely
Moonrise will be at 11:04 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:27 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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March 17, 2017
Friday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy with a chance for showers.  An afternoon thunderstorm possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64    IL ~ 58 to 64    KY ~ 58 to 64    TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:04 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2
Moonrise 
will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:02 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Mostly the first half of the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to widespread.  Ending north to south.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 40 to 44    IL ~ 40 to 44    KY ~ 40 to 44     TN ~ 40 to 44
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:02 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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March 18, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 55 to 60   IL ~ 55 to 60    KY ~ 56 to 62    TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds:  Northwest at 8 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:05 p.m.
UV Index
: 5 to 8
Moonrise 
will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 10:39 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 34 to 38   IL ~ 34 to 38    KY ~ 34 to 40     TN ~ 34 to 42
Winds:  North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 10:39 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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March 19, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 56 to 62     IL ~ 56 to 62    KY ~ 56 to 62    TN ~ 56  to 62
Winds: East and southeast at 5 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:57 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:06 p.m.
UV Index
: 5 to 8
Moonrise 
will be at 12:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:20 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear early.  Increasing clouds late.  Small chance for shower.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Maybe wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 46   IL ~ 42 to 46    KY ~ 42 to 46     TN ~ 42 to 46
Winds: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 12:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:20 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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March 20, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates in case rain chances increase
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68     KY ~ 64 to 68    TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  South 5 to 10 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Maybe wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 52   IL ~ 48 to 52    KY ~ 48 to 52     TN ~ 48 to 52
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No


More information on the UV index.  Click here

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.




 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Analysis

Thursday night into Friday night.
Confidence:  High

Clouds thicken on Thursday night.  Perhaps some late night showers.  The bulk of the rain, however, will hold off until Friday and Friday night.  A weather system will push through the region with quite a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms.  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Some lightning, perhaps.

Generally, rainfall totals of 0.10″ to 0.30″ can be expected across the region.  If thunderstorms develop, then a few spots could pick up a bit more rain.

Rain will end from north to south on Friday night.

If you have outdoor plans on Friday and Friday night then at the very least have alternative plans and monitor radars.

Radar link

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

 

Saturday and Sunday:
Confidence:  High

 

Both Saturday and Sunday should deliver partly to mostly sunny sky conditions and mild temperatures.  Expect highs from 56 to 62 on both days.  Not too bad.

Low temperatures on Saturday morning should bottom out in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.  Lows by Sunday morning will likely be in the middle 30’s.

Clouds may increase on Sunday night.  Rain showers return late Sunday night into Monday night.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

I continue to monitor late next week and the week after for thunderstorms.

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Here is the official NOAA rainfall prediction

This map is through Saturday morning.  Most of this would fall Friday and Friday night.  Assuming we remain dry on Saturday into Sunday, then rainfall totals of 0.10″ to 0.40″ are a possibility.  Some of this depends on whether a few thunderstorms develop.

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Friday low temperature forecast

Friday high temperature forecast

whatamiconcered

No major concerns.

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Friday into Sunday:  Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

Some of the guidance indicates lightning possible on Friday afternoon.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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