Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 15, 2019: Free blog today for everyone today.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

  1. Go to today’s forecast
  2. Go to the winter storm and severe weather outlook
  3. Go to the weather forecast discussion
  4. Go to the model future-cast radars
  5. Go to videos
  6. Go to weeks one, two, three, and four temperature and precipitation graphics
  7. Go to Weatherbrains
  8. View some of our charity work.  Your subscription dollars help support these causes.

Do you have questions or suggestions?  If so, please email me.  Beaudodson@usawx.com

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  1.   Calmer weather!  Finally.
  2.   No heavy rain or severe weather in the forecast.

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Today:  No.  Remember, river flooding continues.   Avoid flooded roads from river flooding.
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Tomorrow:  No.  Remember, river flooding continues.  Avoid flooded roads from river flooding.

Sunday:  No.  Remember, river flooding continues.  Avoid flooded roads from river flooding.

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Confidence rating explained.

  • High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
  • Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
  • Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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Today through  Sunday night.

  1.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.
  2.  Is lightning in the forecast?   No
  3.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  No
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast?  No.  General river flooding will continue.

Monday through Thursday

  1. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.
  2. Is lightning in the forecast?  No.
  3. Is severe weather in the forecast?  No.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  No.  General river flooding will continue.

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here

 

March 15, 2019
Friday’s Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  44° to 48°     SE MO  44° to 48°     South IL  44° to 46°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 46°     West KY 45° to 48°      NW TN 45° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:  West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 3 Low
Sunrise:   7:06 AM

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Friday night Forecast:  Clearing sky conditions.  A chilly night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  26° to 30°     SE MO  26° to 32°      South IL  26° to 32°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30°     West KY  30° to 34°    NW TN  30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed:   Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   0%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   7:02 PM
Moonrise:   1:03 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  2:59 AM

 

 

March 16, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  52° to 54°     SE MO  50° to 54°     South IL  48° to 52°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  46° to 50°     West KY 52° to 54°      NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise:   7:05 AM

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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Light winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  33° to 35°     SE MO  30° to 34°      South IL  30° to 34°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 33°     West KY  32° to 34°    NW TN  33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed:   Variable and light
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   0%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   7:03 PM
Moonrise:   2:05 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  3:58 AM

 

 

March 17, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  55° to 58°     SE MO  54° to 58°     South IL  53° to 56°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  53° to 56°     West KY 54° to 58°      NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed:  Variable wind direction increasing to 7  to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise:   7:02 AM

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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  36° to 38°     SE MO  32° to 34°      South IL  30° to 34°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32°     West KY  30° to 34°    NW TN  33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed:   Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   0%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   7:03 PM
Moonrise:   4:49 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  3:14 PM

 

Monday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs in the low to middle 50’s.  Lows in the middle 30’s.
Tuesday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs in the middle 50’s.  Lows in the middle 30’s.
Wednesday
:  Cloudy. A  rain shower possible.  Highs in the middle 50’s.  Lows in the middle 30’s.

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Graphic-cast

Missouri

 

 

Illinois

 

 

 

Kentucky

 

 

 

 

Tennessee

 

 

Wind forecast

Winds today will start to subside.  We will still have some gusts above 20 mph.

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today and tomorrow:  No severe storms.

Sunday through Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com  Click the personal notification settings tab.  Turn on WeatherOne.  Green is on.  Red is off.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

 

48-hour precipitation outlook.

 

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast.  This includes day one through seven.

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

 

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here..

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.  Click here.

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

  1.   Finally, some calm weather!
  2.   Dry and cool through the weekend.

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major adjustments.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

 

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Forecast discussion.

Thursday was a busy day with numerous severe weather warnings.

At least two or three tornadoes touched down.

The NWS is performing storm surveys and they will be posting updates over the next few days.

The tornado that moved out of Carlisle County, KY into McCracken County, KY was likely an EF2.

The great news is that today will be calm.  Calm weather into early next week.

Let’s all enjoy this quiet weather.

I am monitoring rain chances towards Wednesday/Thursday of next week.  For now, this does not appear to be a heavy rain event.  Severe storms are not anticipated.  Both, great news.

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Model Future-cast Radars.  What the models believe the radar may look like.

No storms to track today!

Enjoy the calm.

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Current conditions.

 

These maps update several times a day.  Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

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VIDEO UPDATES
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

These are bonus videos.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

 

The Ohio Valley video

 

 


Long-range This video.

 

 

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The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)

 

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

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** NOTE:  These graphics are from NOAA.  Our own in-house outlooks can be found below these.  Sometimes forecasters disagree on the long range forecast. **

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The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.

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Days six through ten temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

 

Days six through ten precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

 

Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

NAT_TemperatureOutlook_8-14Day.png (1920×1080)

 

Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.  These are more detailed than the images above.
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Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 15th through March 21st 

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

 

 

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers  March 22nd through March 28th

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″

This outlook covers March 29th through April 11th

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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March temperature and precipitation outlook

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April temperature and precipitation outlook

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

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Temperature outlook

 

Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

 

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?  Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

 

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 686
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Tonight’s show is the inspiration of weather enthusiast, Nashville attorney, and NashSevereWx founder David Drobny.

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is Brett Kern, starting punter for the Tennessee Titans of the NFL.  He just completed his 11th season and is the longest tenured Titan on the roster.  Welcome to the show!

Tonight’s Guest Panelists include hosts Castle Williams and Minh Phan from the “WeatherHype” podcast.  Welcome!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • How does weather impact play in the NFL?
  • Longest NFL game ever in September 2018 due to lightning delay (Miami)
  • Ice boom breaks in Lake Erie due to late February windstorm
  • New “Snow Squall Warnings” product
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

Find Beau on Facebook!  Click the banner.

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Find Beau on Twitter!   Share your weather photos!  @beaudodson

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