Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 13, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

 

 

 

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

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  1.   Shower and thunderstorm chances today into Thursday.  A few storms may be severe.
  2.   Strong winds Wednesday into Thursday.  Highest winds may be on Thursday.
  3.   Well above normal temperatures both today and Thursday.

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Today:  Yes.  Gusty winds may top 40 mph.  A few strong thunderstorms are also possible.  Low-end severe weather risk.  The main time frame of concern will be Wednesday late afternoon into Wednesday night.
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Tomorrow:  Monitor updates.  A few thunderstorms could produce severe weather.   Strong gradient winds could top 50 mph, as well.

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Confidence rating explained.

  • High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
  • Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
  • Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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Today through  Friday night.

  1.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.
  2.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible today and tonight.  Lightning is possible on Thursday, as well.
  3.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  Monitor.  I can not rule out a strong storm or two on Wednesday afternoon/night and Thursday.  Severe storms are possible.  High non-thunderstorm winds are likely on Thursday, as well.  Wind damage may occur from the gradient winds
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast?  Monitor.  A low-end risk of some water issues.

Saturday through Tuesday

  1. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.
  2. Is lightning in the forecast?  No.
  3. Is severe weather in the forecast?  No.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  No.  General river flooding will continue.

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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March 13, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast:  Mild.  Windy.  At times the winds may gust above 40 mph.  A few scattered showers.  A line of showers and thunderstorms will move into southeast Missouri late this afternoon and then push eastward into the evening and overnight hours.  A few of the thunderstorms could produce high winds and small hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  70° to 74°     SE MO  68° to 74°     South IL  68° to 74°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  70° to 72°     West KY  70° to 74°      NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southeast at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  60%     Southeast MO  60%     IL   40%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  40%    NW TN  40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Much of the day may be dry.  A band of showers and thunderstorms will move into southeast Missouri by mid to late afternoon.  That band will then move eastward into the evening and overnight hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  There is a low-end risk of a severe thunderstorm.  Wet roadways. Windy. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise:   7:09 AM

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Wednesday night Forecast:  A period of showers and thunderstorms.  A strong thunderstorm is possible.  Monitor updates. Windy.  Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  56° to 60°     SE MO  56° to 60°      South IL  56° to 60°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  56° to 60°     West KY  56° to 60°    NW TN  58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed:   Southerly at 20 to 40 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  90%      Southeast MO   90%      Southern IL   90%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  90%     Western KY  90%      NW TN   90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  A band of rain will push west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A strong thunderstorm is possible with high winds and small hail.  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Moderate rain could cause some local flooding issues.  The ground is saturated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   7:00 PM
Moonrise:   11:20 AM
The phase of the moon:   First Quarter
Moonset:  12:55 AM

 

 

March 14, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.   A chance of thunderstorms.  A few storms could be severe.  The greatest chance of thunderstorms will be across southeast Illinois into western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Monitor updates.  High winds are likely.  Wind damage may occur from the gradient winds.  Warm.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  70° to 74°     SE MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 72°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  70° to 72°     West KY  70° to 72°      NW TN 70° to 73°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 30 to 40 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  30%     Southeast MO  30%     IL   50%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60%     Western KY  60%    NW TN  50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps a line of showers and thunderstorms.  Greatest rain chances over southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Strong winds.  Lightning.  A few storms could become severe.  Wind damage may occur from the gradient winds
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B because of strong winds and possible thunderstorms.
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise:   7:08 AM

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Thursday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Any remaining thunderstorms should push off to the east of our area.  Windy.  Cooler.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  38° to 44°     SE MO  36° to 40°      South IL  36° to 40°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40°     West KY  38° to 40°    NW TN  38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:   Becoming westerly at 15 to 30 mph.  Gusty early in the night.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   0%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  20%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Gusty winds.  Before 5 PM perhaps some wet roadways and lightning over our eastern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B early in the night.  Gusty winds could still be an issue.
Sunset:   7:01 PM
Moonrise:   12:08 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  1:58 AM

 

 

March 15, 2019
Friday’s Forecast
:  Intervals of clouds.  Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  44° to 48°     SE MO  44° to 48°     South IL  44° to 46°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 46°     West KY 44° to 48°      NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:  West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 3 Low
Sunrise:   7:06 AM

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Friday night Forecast:  Clearing sky conditions.  A chilly night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  26° to 30°     SE MO  25° to 30°      South IL  25° to 30°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30°     West KY  28° to 30°    NW TN  28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed:   Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   0%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   7:02 PM
Moonrise:   1:03 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  2:59 AM

 

Saturday:  Mostly sunny.  Cool.  Highs in the 40’s.  Lows in the 20’s and 30’s.

Sunday:  Partly sunny.  A sprinkle possible. Highs in the 50’s.  Lows in the 30’s.

Monday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows in the 30’s.

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Graphic-cast

Missouri

 

 

Illinois

 

 

 

Kentucky

The Wednesday night rain chances will likely end up being above 70% area-wide.

 

 

 

 

Tennessee

The Wednesday night rain chances will likely end up being above 70% area-wide.

 

 

Wind forecast

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today and tomorrow:  Lightning is possible today and tonight.  I am monitoring the risk of a few strong storms this afternoon and tonight, as well.  The main concern would be strong and gusty winds.  Small hail, as well.

Thursday through Sunday:  A band of thunderstorms is forecast to form across southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  A few of these storms could become strong or severe.  Damaging wind and hail possible.  Low-end tornado risk.  Monitor updates.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com  Click the personal notification settings tab.  Turn on WeatherOne.  Green is on.  Red is off.

 

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

 

48-hour precipitation outlook.

 

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast.  This includes day one through seven.

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

 

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here..

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.  Click here.

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

  1.   Increasing rain chances.  A few thunderstorms are also possible.
  2.   Well above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.
  3.   Non-thunderstorm winds may gust above 50 mph on Thursday.  We will also have to watch the severe thunderstorm risk on Thursday, as well.  Wind damage may occur from the gradient winds

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major adjustments.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Monitor updates concerning a few thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.  A few storms could be strong.  The severe weather risk appears to be limited, but not zero.

Yes.  Monitor the risk of a severe thunderstorm on Thursday across mainly southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

Yes.  Strong winds are possible on Wednesday/Wednesday night.  High winds are likely on Thursday.  Non-thunderstorm gradient winds could gust above 45 mph.  Wind damage may occur from the gradient winds

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

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Forecast discussion.

By now you have likely heard about the powerful blizzard that is developing in the Central Plains.  This area of low pressure is forecast to rapidly deepen today to near-record low barometric pressure readings.  Quite amazing.

A true blue blizzard is going to strike area to the west and northwest of the area of low pressure.  Some areas will receive six to twelve inches of snow with 60+ mph wind gusts.  Severe blowing and drifting snow will occur in those areas.

Here is the GFS model guidance.  You can see the red L in Kansas.  That is the area of low pressure.  Those black lines are tightly packed isobars.

 

 

We are going to be on the warm side of the system.  And warm it will be!

Many areas will touch or exceed 70 degrees both today and tomorrow.  Spring temperatures.

Today and tomorrow’s highs.

 

 

Of course, you know what is coming next.  Yes, rain.

Here is the 8 AM radar view.  You can see the band of rain to our west.  You can also see the snow on the backside (blue colors).

All of this will shift east this afternoon and tonight.

 

 

Temperatures this warm, with strong southerly winds, increasing moisture levels, and a cold front to the west equals one thing.  Rain and thunderstorms.

There could be some scattered showers today but the bulk of the rain and thunderstorms will arrive late this afternoon into tonight.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will push across Missouri and Arkansas during the early to mid-afternoon hours.  It will advance into our western counties near Poplar Bluff between 3 and 6 pm.  From there, it will push eastward across the rest of the region by late afternoon into the overnight hours.

Some locally heavy downpours are possible.  Strong and gusty winds, as well.  A couple of storms could become severe.  There is a low-end severe weather risk.

If severe storms were to form then the main concern would be damaging wind gusts and small hail.  Monitor updates late today into this evening.

The front will not clear the region until late Thursday.

This means some additional showers and thunderstorms may form Thursday afternoon.  These storms would most likely form in a line across parts of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

A few of the Thursday storms could become severe.  Damaging wind would be the primary concern.  Isolated hail, as well.  A non-zero tornado risk.

In addition to the above, we are going to have strong gradient winds today into Thursday.

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What are gradient winds?

Gradient winds are caused by tight barometric pressure readings.

A deep area of low pressure to our west will be responsible for the tightening isobars (equal lines of pressure).

Winds today and tonight could gust to over 40 mph.  Wind gusts on Thursday could exceed 50 mph.

There are some questions about Thursday’s wind potential.  Clouds and precipitation could dampen the higher wind gusts.  This will need to be monitored.

Areas that have sunshine will have the highest wind gusts.  Some wind damage is possible from these gradient winds.

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Model Future-cast Radars.  What the models believe the radar may look like.

Here is the NAM model.  This is the future-cast radar.

You will notice the band of rain later today.  A lull.  You will then see the Thursday band along the cold front.

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Here is the Hrrr model guidance.

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Current conditions.

 

These maps update several times a day.  Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

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VIDEO UPDATES
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

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The Ohio Valley video

 

 

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Long-range This video.

 

 

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The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)

 

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these.  They may not always agree **

The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.

Days six through ten temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

 

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Days six through ten precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

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Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.  These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers  March 11th through the 18th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″

This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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March temperature and precipitation outlook

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April temperature and precipitation outlook

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

 

Temperature outlook

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Precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
.1

 

WeatherBrains Episode 685

 

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz, an on-air broadcast meteorologist at WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, PA.  In addition, also joining us from WCAU-TV is on-air broadcast meteorologist Steven Sosna.  Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Also joining us is the Chief scientist/SOO at the National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL.  Kevin Laws, welcome to the show!

Last but not least, Joel Housman is joining us this week to celebrate National Weather Podcast Month.  Hailing from Washington DC, he runs Ice Station Housman and is a weather enthusiast.  Welcome to the show, Joel!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • 23 killed in EF4 Lee County, Alabama tornado on 3/3
  • National Weather Podcast Month
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • National Weather round-up
  • and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

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