Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

 

 

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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

 

 

 

 

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

1. 1. Go to today’s forecast
   2. Go to the winter storm and severe weather outlook
   3. Go to the weather forecast discussion
   4. Go to the model future-cast radars
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

 

My regular detailed text forecast can be found below these graphics.

My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.

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Missouri

The Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night rain chances will likely end up being above 70% area-wide.

 

 

Illinois

The Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night rain chances will likely end up being above 70% area-wide.

 

 

 

Kentucky

The Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night rain chances will likely end up being above 70% area-wide.

 

 

 

 

Tennessee

The Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night rain chances will likely end up being above 70% area-wide.

 

1.   A few sprinkles over the next 48 hours.
2.   Widespread rain likely Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night.  Greatest coverage 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM Wednesday.
3.   Gusty winds on Wednesday.  High winds on Thursday.
4.   Damaging winds are possible on Thursday.  Non-thunderstorm winds.  Highest winds will be over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.

 

Today: No.  
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Tomorrow:  No

Strong non-thunderstorm winds are likely on Thursday.  Monitor updates.

 

Confidence rating explained.

• High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
• Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
• Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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Today through  Wednesday night.

1.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.
2.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible on Wednesday/Wednesday night.
3.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  Unlikely.
   *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast?  Monitor.  Heavy rain is possible Wednesday/Wednesday night.  The ground is saturated.

Thursday through Sunday 

1. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No. 
2. Is lightning in the forecast?  No.
3. Is severe weather in the forecast?  High non-thunderstorm winds are likely on Thursday.  Monitor the severe weather risk.
   *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  No.  General river flooding will continue.

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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March 11, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A sprinkle is possible.  Some clearing during the PM hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  54° to 56°     SE MO  52° to 55°     South IL  52° to 54°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  50° to 54°    West KY  52° to 54°     NW TN  54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%     MO  20%     IL   10%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  10%     Western KY  20%    NW TN  30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated and light
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but a few light rain showers are possible today.  Greatest chance is along the MO/AR and KY/TN State line.
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise:   7:12 AM

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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A sprinkle possible over southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  36° to 38°     SE MO  33° to 36°     South IL  30° to 35°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30° to 34°    West KY  33° to 36°     NW TN  36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 3 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%      Southeast MO   20%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%      NW TN   20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated over southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.  Most areas will remain dry.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   6:59 PM
Moonrise:   10:04 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  11:53 PM

 

 

March 12, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast:  Increasing clouds from the west.  A few showers developing, especially during the PM hours.  Rain would first arrive over southeast Missouri and it would be scattered.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  54° to 58°     SE MO  54° to 56°     South IL  54° to 58°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  54° to 56°    West KY  54° to 58°     NW TN  58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed:  East becoming east/southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  50%     MO  50%     IL   40%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  30%    NW TN  40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing chances from west to east as the day wears on
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise:   7:11 AM

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Tuesday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  Scattered showers.  The greatest coverage will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  46° to 50°     SE MO  46 to 48°     South IL  46° to 48°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  46° to 48°    West KY  46° to 48°     NW TN  46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  40%      Southeast MO   60%      Southern IL   50%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30%     Western KY  30%      NW TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would not cancel.  I would monitor updates and radars.
Sunset:   6:59 PM
Moonrise:   10:40 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  12:01 AM

 

 

March 13, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast:  Mild and windy.  Cloudy.  There remain some questions about the timing of the cold front.  The bulk of the rain may fall from late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   Coverage will increase during the PM hours.  A thunderstorm is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  70° to 74°     SE MO  68° to 74°     South IL  68° to 74°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  68° to 72°     West KY  68° to 72°      NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southeast at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  60%     Southeast MO  60%     IL   40%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30%     Western KY  50%    NW TN  50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  A band of rain will push west to east.  This will mainly be late in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Windy. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor the timing of the rain event.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise:   7:09 AM

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Wednesday night Forecast:  A period of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.  Windy.  Steady or rising temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  56° to 60°     SE MO  56° to 60°      South IL  56° to 60°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  56° to 60°     West KY  56° to 60°    NW TN  58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed:   Southerly at 20 to 40 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  90%      Southeast MO   90%      Southern IL   90%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  90%     Western KY  90%      NW TN   90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  A band of rain will push west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Moderate rain could cause some local flooding issues.  The ground is saturated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   7:00 PM
Moonrise:   11:20 AM
The phase of the moon:   First Quarter
Moonset:  12:55 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Thursday:  High wind alert.  Winds may gust above 50 mph.  Non-thunderstorm winds.  Deep low pressure will pass to our north.  This will cause high winds.  Wind damage is possible.  Partly cloudy and warm.  Highs in the 70’s.  Lows in the 40’s.

Friday:  Partly sunny.  Breezy.  Highs in the 40’s to lower 50’s.  Lows in the 30’s.

Saturday:  Partly sunny.  Cool.  Highs in the 40’s.  Lows in the 20’s and 30’s.

 

Wind forecast

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today and tomorrow:  No severe weather.

Wednesday through Friday: Lightning is possible on Wednesday/Wednesday night.  Monitor the severe weather risk Thursday.  High non-thunderstorm winds could cause wind damage on Thursday.  Winds may gust above 50 mph.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com  Click the personal notification settings tab.  Turn on WeatherOne.  Green is on.  Red is off.

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Today through Sunday:  No accumulating snow or ice.

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I increased Thursday’s wind speeds.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Strong winds are possible on Wednesday/Wednesday night.  High winds are likely on Thursday.  Non-thunderstorm gradient winds could gust above 50 mph.  Wind damage is possible.

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

 

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Forecast discussion.

An interesting few days ahead.

Today into Tuesday will deliver some clouds and maybe a light sprinkle here and there.  Nothing major.  Most areas will remain dry.

Light rain chances will be a bit higher over southeast Missouri and western Tennessee into Tuesday night.

Those wanting spring temperatures are about to get them.  As a matter of fact, many of us may hit 70 degrees or above by Wednesday and Thursday.

Some of the guidance is showing upper 70’s by Thursday.

 

Wednesday’s high-temperature map (GFS model guidance).

Some of the guidance shows even higher temperatures on both Wednesday and Thursday.

We will have quite a few clouds around Wednesday.  Rain, as well.  That could keep temperatures from rising much higher.  We will see.

Either way, it will feel like spring.

 

Thursday’s high-temperature map.

Some of the guidance shows middle to upper 70’s by Thursday.  For now, we will stay on the lower end of guidance.

 

A deep area of low pressure will push out of Oklahoma and move into Kansas by Wednesday and Wednesday night.

This system is forecast to have pressure levels below 980 MB.  That is a low barometer reading for the Central United States.

This deep low will pull warm air northward from the Gulf of Mexico.  That warm air will spread into our region by Wednesday.

A cold front will push into the region from the west by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

This front will be accompanied by widespread showers and some thunderstorms.

Interestingly enough, it appears we won’t have severe weather.  Typically, one would expect severe weather with such a deep low.

What we will have our strong and gusty winds developing Wednesday and increasing to higher speeds by Thursday.

A high wind alert has been issued for Thursday.

Gradient winds could gust above 50 mph.  Wind damage is possible if these numbers are achieved.

The ground is soggy.  That could mean a few trees falling over.  Power outages are also possible.

This does not look to be as strong as the Hurricane Ike wind event.  It could, however, produce some pretty strong wind gusts across the area.

Monitor updates.

Here is what the NAM model is showing for wind gust speeds.  Models struggle with how to handle gradient winds.

These numerous are a general reflection of what might happen.

The timestamp is located in the upper right-hand corner.

 

What are gradient winds?

As you know, a weather map has high and low pressure.   When these readings increase or decrease we have wind.   A deep low-pressure center can produce high winds.  This is because the isobars (equal lines of pressure) are closely packed together.

That is what will happen in our region later this week.  Closely packed isobars will pass through our region.

You can see the area of low pressure on this weather map.

See those black lines?  Those are isobars.  Isobars are equal lines of barometric pressure.

Do you have a barometer at home?  You will be able to watch the pressure readings fall.

This weather map is for Thursday at 1 AM

The low is centered over northeast Kansas.  That is the red L.  Low pressure.  Snow on the backside (blue) and green/yellow on the front side.  That is rain and some storms.

 

How about dry weather?

I don’t want to jinx this, but it looks like we may have a stretch of dry weather after this next event.  We sure could use it.

Check out this map.  The is the percent of normal rainfall from Friday until March 22nd.

This map indicates below normal precipitation is likely to occur after this next rain event.

 

 

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Model Future-cast Radars.  What the models believe the radar may look like.

This is the GFS future-cast radar.  The GFS is a computer model.

The timestamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.

There will be some light showers in the forecast into Tuesday night.  Most areas will remain dry.

You can see those on this animation.  Most of the activity will stay just to our west.    A few showers will creep into at least southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.  Western Tennessee, as well.

The main cold front arrives Wednesday and Wednesday night.  You can see that sweep through the area with moderate to locally heavy downpours.

It is possible that the bulk of the region will arrive during the late afternoon and overnight hours on Wednesday.  I will be monitoring the timing of the front.  Some adjustments are possible.

Strong and gusty winds will develop Wednesday and Thursday.

 

 

This next image is the NAM model guidance future-cast radar animation.

Again, you can see some light rain chances over the next 24 to 48 hours.  The main event, however, is on Wednesday afternoon/night

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River Flooding To Continue

River flooding is going to continue through the week.  I know many of you are having flooding issues.

Speaking of flooding, here are some links to help you track the crest numbers.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

 

Current conditions.

 

These maps update several times a day.  Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

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The Ohio Valley video

 

 

Long-range This video.