June 7, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Hot and muggy weather on the way.

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June 07, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Afternoon Cumulus clouds possible. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: HIgh
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 11 Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few clouds. Warm. Humid. Most of the area will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70 IL ~ 66 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Winds: South and southeast 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 1:50 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:37 PM

Rain chances will need to be monitored over the weekend. Adjustments in the rain percentage numbers are likely.

June 08, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Hot and increasingly muggy. Most areas will remain dry. A few isolated storms possible. Best chance would be over the northern part of southeast Missouri and northern part of southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated storms.
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds if storms form.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but storms that form could be locally intense. Many areas will remain dry.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 11 Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms. Best chance will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Warm. Humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Greatest chances would be from near Poplar Bluff, MO towards Harrisburg, IL. Near that line and north of that line.
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Locally heavy downpours. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 2:21 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:38 PM

June 09, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Hot. Muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roads. Heavy downpours. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 2:53 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:40 PM

June 10, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph. Wind becoming west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70 IL ~ 66 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South winds 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 3:26 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:46 PM

June 11, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 10 to 11 Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 4:05 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:53 PM

June 12, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 88 to 92 KY ~ 88 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 4:45 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 7:03 PM

June 13, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 88 to 92 KY ~ 88 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:16 PM
Moonrise: 5:33 AM New
Moonset: 8:12 PM

June 14, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 88 to 92 KY ~ 88 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:16 PM
Moonrise: 6:30 AM New
Moonset: 9:18 PM

June 15, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 88 to 92 KY ~ 88 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning. Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk. Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 7:32 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:18 PM

The region will likely remain dry through Thursday night.

Rain chances increase as we move into Friday and the weekend.

Scattered thunderstorms, this time of the year, can always produce much heavier rain totals. Questions remain on the potential track of several thunderstorm complexes later this week.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA rainfall forecast.

This is broad brushed. It is possible that some areas remain completely dry.

We are in a summer pattern. That means a WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.

For some locations, these numbers are way too low.

This next graphic is the NAM model guidance rainfall forecast through Sunday.

Notice the differences in each of the models. The differences center around thunderstorm complexes that commonly form during the summer months. These complexes are tricky, at best, to forecast more than 12 to 24 hours in advance. Rainfall totals can vary greatly within the complexes.

This next graphic is the GFS model rainfall through Monday

This next graphic is the GEM model rainfall total map through Monday

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today: No thunderstorm activity anticipated.

Tonight: Odds favor no storms.

Friday through Friday night: Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday. Scattered storms are possible Friday night, especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Confidence to storm coverage further south is low. Monitor updates.

Keep in mind, it is possible many areas remain dry. If we can pull off an organized MCS (storm complex) or line of storms then perhaps more people will receive some rain.

Some of the storms will produce heavy downpours, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds. I can’t rule out severe weather. The greatest time frame of concern should be Sunday and Sunday night.

Saturday into Sunday night: Scattered storms again possible. A few storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. I can’t rule out isolated severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.

Monday night through next Friday: Scattered summer-type thunderstorms will be possible. Where storms occur there will be heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. At this time, organized severe weather appears unlikely. Monitor updates. Isolated severe weather risk.

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Weather Headlines

Warmer weather. Muggy conditions.
Increasing chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Typical summer pattern establishing itself.

A rather typical summer pattern is establishing itself over our region.

We will have hot days and warm nights through next week. Daily highs will range from the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Overnight lows will hover near 70 degrees.

Heat index values will range from 92 to 98 as we push deeper into the weekend and next week.

Dew points will continue to increase over the coming days. The dewpoint controls how sticky it feels outside. Muggy weather is anticipated through most of next week.

We will have dry weather today and tonight.

Thunderstorm chances begin to creep upward as we move into Friday and especially over the weekend.

I am closely monitoring the potential of MCS’s. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes. They are common during the summer months and are actually responsible for most of our summer rainfall.

These complexes can increase rain coverage considerably.

For now, I have capped rain chances in the 30% to 40% range as we move into the weekend and next week.

It is possible that there will be time periods where I will have to increase those numbers. Until that becomes clear, I will leave it as is.

Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM model guidance.

Timestamp upper left.

Keep in mind, this is simply one model’s idea. It is extremely difficult to pin down the exact placement of summer thunderstorms.

It is important to remember that summer storms can occasionally pulse up and produce strong downburst winds that can exceed 50 mph. Typically, these reports are isolated.

If you have lived here any length of time, you will know that scattered summer thunderstorms can produce gully washers. Heavy rain totals in a short amount of time. This can temporarily cause water over easily flooded roadways.

At one time, it appeared we might cool off next week. That is becoming less likely.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend then be sure and check radars.

I would not cancel plans. I would keep in mind that there will be scattered storms in the region. Not an all day rain. Scattered and progressive. Keep an eye on radars.

Don’t forget to understand the symptoms of heat-related illnesses.

Also, don’t forget our outdoor friends.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

WeatherBrains Episode 646

We couldn’t get Google Hangouts to function for our guest this week, so this week’s WeatherBrains is a discussion amongst the regulars about what is on their minds.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: