Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 5, 2018: Non-subscribers update. A nice day ahead. Watching the weekend.

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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

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Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one.  Click here.

 

June 05, 2018
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  A nice day anticipated. Perhaps slightly warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 83 to 86      IL ~ 83 to 86       KY ~ 83 to 86       TN ~  83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph.   Wind becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 11  High to very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 64       IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 60 to 64        TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Southwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:12 PM
Moonrise: 12:46 AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:41 AM

 

June 06, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Warmer and a bit more humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 88      IL ~ 82 to 85       KY ~ 82 to 88       TN ~  85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Winds: Light and variable wind.  Wind becoming north and northeast at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  More humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68       IL ~ 62 to 65     KY ~ 64 to 68        TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Winds: Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:12 PM
Moonrise: 1:13 AM Last Quarter
Moonset: 12:39 PM

 

June 07, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Afternoon Cumulus clouds building.  Warm and humid.  Most areas will remain dry.  A slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92      IL ~ 86 to 92        KY ~ 86 to 92        TN ~  86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Winds:  South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none for most areas.  Lightning and wet roads in isolated areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Warm.  Humid.  Most of the area will remain dry.   An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 70      KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Winds:  South and southeast 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated lightning.  Isolated wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 1:50 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:37 PM

 

Rain chances will need to be monitored over the weekend.  Adjustments in the rain percentage numbers are likely.

 

June 08, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.   Warm and muggy.  Most areas will remain dry.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 92      IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 86 to 92       TN ~  86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Perhaps an isolated wet roadway and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 11 Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Most areas will remain dry.  A few widely scattered thunderstorms.  Warm. Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 2:21 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:38 PM

 

June 09, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered storms  possible.  Warm.  Muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 90       IL ~86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90        TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%      IL ~ 50%       KY ~ 50%          TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds:  Southwest 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads.  Heavy downpours. Lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 70       IL ~ 66 to 70       KY ~ 66 to 70        TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~  60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads.  Heavy downpours. Lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 2:53 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:40 PM

 

June 10, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Warm and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 88      IL ~ 84 to 88       KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~  84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  Wind becoming west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Heavy downpours.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 70       IL ~ 66 to 70       KY ~ 66 to 70        TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Variable  5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 3:26 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:46 PM

 

June 11, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86      IL ~ 82 to 86       KY ~ 82 to 86       TN ~  82 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 4:03 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:54 PM

 

 

 

We should remain dry through Wednesday.

Rain chances increase as we move towards Thursday through Sunday.  Some of the rain could be heavy.  Questions remain on the potential track of several thunderstorm complexes later this week.

Here is the latest WPC rainfall forecast through Thursday night.

It shows no rain.  I can’t rule out some isolated storms Thursday night.  Most areas will remain dry.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC rainfall forecast through day seven.  Most of this falls Saturday and Sunday.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Tuesday through Wednesday:  Odds favor no thunderstorm activity.

Thursday through Monday:  Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible.  It is MCS season.  MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes that typically move into our region from the northwest.

Some of the storms will produce heavy downpours, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds.  I can’t rule out severe weather but I will need to see more data before picking one day vs another for stronger thunderstorms.  Monitor updates.

Thursday’s storm chances are low.

The greatest chance of rain will be Saturday into Sunday.  I will need to monitor Monday.

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. Nice weather again today into tonight.
  2. I am monitoring thunderstorm chances as we move into Thursday and Friday.
  3. Guidance is leaning towards cooler than normal next week.

 

Monday was a nice day in the region and today will be another one.

Temperatures will rise into the middle 80’s.  Dew points will remain fairly low.  That means a nice feel to the atmosphere.

We will have nice weather today into Thursday.  A slow warming trend each day.  A bit more humid each day.

 

Late Week Rain Chances

A frontal boundary will slip into the region Friday night into Sunday.  This boundary will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms.

The greatest thunderstorm chances will be Saturday into Sunday.

There remain questions on how much coverage there will be.  If you have outdoor plans Saturday and Sunday then monitor the latest updates.  We will have to deal with some storms.

It is a bit early to know if any of the storms will be severe.

There will be plenty of moisture and warm temperatures.  That usually means frequent lightning and heavy downpours.  Some of the storms will likely have gusty winds, as well.

PWAT’s will be high.  That is a measure of moisture.  That equals locally heavy rain.

Again, monitor updates moving forward.

GFS model uidance has been trending cooler than normal next week.  This will be highly dependent on how far south an area of high pressure pushes from the Great Lakes.

This high pressure will push the ridge further south and east/west.  Pushing the ridge out of the area will mean cooler temperatures.

The EC model guidance shows next week as hot and dry.  Models differ.  I will be monitoring trends.

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

.

 

WeatherBrains Episode 645

The first named storm of 2018 is now in the books, so we’re going to be talking with two experts in the area of tropical weather, Max Mayfield, left, and Bryan Norcross, right.

These two hurricane specialists currently work for WPLG in Fort Lauderdale. They both need no introduction. Max Mayfield, former Director of the National Hurricane Center, and Bryan Norcross, Mr. Hurricane who appeared on the show a few months ago when his book came out.

Max was unable to get connected to the hangout.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 111 at Death Valley, CA, and 28 at Leadville, CO
  • Alberto developed in SE Gulf and moved north through Alabama
  • Humongous flooding in Ellicott City, MD
  • 4 lightning deaths in US this year
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourae subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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