Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 30th and July 1st update: Warm. Unsettled.

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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The following link is for Weather Text subscribers.  This is the page where short and long range video outlooks have been posted.  The videos are being produced by a team of meteorologists.  Some of the best in the region.
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June 30, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly cloudy.  Warmer.  A chance for  showers and thunderstorms.   A few storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 74     IL ~ 66 to 74    KY ~ 66 to 74   TN ~ 66 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.

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July 1, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A few thunderstorms are possible.  Warm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88    KY ~ 84 to 88  TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds:  West and southwest winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  A 20% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 66    IL ~ 64 to 66    KY ~ 64 to 66   TN ~ 64 to 66
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 6 to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  An evening storm could produce lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 2, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Isolated storms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90     KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  West and northwest winds becoming more southwesterly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Mostly none.  A few reports of lightning and wet roadways possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Isolated storms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 66     IL ~ 64 to 66    KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 3, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Rain probabilities may need adjusting.
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 86 to 92    KY ~ 86 to 92  TN ~ 86 to 94
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.  If a storm does form then it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Warmer.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but if a storm forms it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 4, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Rain probabilities may need adjusting.
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Hot and humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 88 to 94     IL ~ 88 to 92    KY ~ 88 to 92  TN ~ 88 to 92
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.  If a storm does form then it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but if a storm forms it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Friday night:  Thunderstorms are possible.  There is a risk that a few storms could produce damaging winds or downburst winds.  This is not uncommon during the summer months.  Thunderstorms can reach 50 or 60 thousand feet into the atmosphere.  What goes up must come down.  Sometimes downburst winds can occur in isolated areas.

Otherwise, thunderstorms that do form will produce heavy downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning.  Monitor updates.

Saturday into Tuesday:  Showers and thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning.  A few storms possible in the afternoon.  Thunderstorm chances will be with us Sunday into Tuesday..

I would not change any weekend plans.  I would monitor updated forecasts.  If thunderstorms approach, and you are camping, then take appropriate precautions.  In other words, use common sense.

Storms that form could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds.

beausanalysis

 

I hope everyone is ready for the holiday weekend!  We will have a few wrinkles in the forecast, but it could be worse.

We will have scattered thunderstorms possible into Tuesday.  I would not change my plans, but I would monitor updates and radars.  It will be nearly impossible to pinpoint what county might end up under a thunderstorm.

Guidance has been useless the last few days.  Horrible models lately.

At least scattered thunderstorms are possible on both Friday night and Saturday.  Coverage should diminish Saturday night.

Saturday into Sunday night should deliver a mix of sun and clouds.  Warm.  Humid, for the most part.  A few scattered storms are possible.  There is a chance that an organized area of storms could form on Saturday, but confidence is low.  Also monitoring Sunday night.

Some of the guidance wants to bring a line of storms through the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Once again, I have little confidence in the eventual outcome.

This is the type of pattern where it takes very little to set off thunderstorms.   I would suggest monitoring the short range forecasts and radars.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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