June 30, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Hot and muggy.

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June 30, 2018
Heat index values today through next week will top 100 degrees.
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Hot and muggy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Heat index above 100.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southeast at 5 to 10 with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few clouds. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 10:10 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:44 AM

July 1, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy and hot. Humid. Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms possible. Heat index above 100.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:38 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Widely scattered thunderstorms. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 10:47 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:38 AM

July 2, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Widely scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% to 40% TN ~ 30% to 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:38 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. A few thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 11:20 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:19 AM

July 3, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Muggy. Heat index above 100 degrees. An isolated storm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Mostly likely none
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 11:52 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:31 AM

July 4, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Heat index above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:27 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

A fairly typical weather pattern for our local area.

A few more storms Sunday into Monday as a cold front approaches the region. Locally heavy rain possible (summer storms).

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

A WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.

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If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Saturday through Monday. Isolated storms are possible today. The highest chance will be over southeast Missouri. Most of the area will remain dry.

We could see an uptick of thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday. Some storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Lightning, of course.

Isolated severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out during the heat of the day. Monitor updates.

There will also be a risk of downburst winds. Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph. These are common during the summer months.

What are downbursts?

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

Weather Headlines

Hot and hot. Muggy.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Straight forward forecast over the coming seven days.

We will have daily heat and humidity. Hazy, at times.

Highs today into next Saturday will pop into the 90’s with heat index values of 100 to 115 degrees.

The heat index values will vary based on dew points. Dew point is a measure of moisture. The dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside.

Dew points are in the 68 to 78 degree range. Very high. Dew points in the 70’s are miserable when combined with the heat.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will occur during the heat of the day.

There may be an uptick in thunderstorm chances Sunday into Monday. I went ahead and placed a 30% to 40% chance. Confidence is low.

We could end up with a line of thunderstorms.

A cold front will be the reason for the increased thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday. The front will not deliver any temperature relief to our region. It will wash out or return north as a warm front.

The rest of the week will be hot and muggy. Storm chances Monday onward will be low. Perhaps some heat of the day activity. I am not currently seeing a strong signal for increased storm chances Monday through Friday. Occasionally, a disturbance will push along the ridge of high pressure and bring squally storms. For now, I don’t see that (other than the uptick Sunday and Monday).

We should be solidly in the grips of the heat ridge.

Use care in the heat. It will not be the best outdoor weather.

Do you know the symptoms of heat illnesses? Most people do not.

Those cleaning up from the storm should use care.

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

These graphics are for subscribers.