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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Cool. Pleasant night.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds north and north/northeast at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday – Partly sunny. Mild. A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: North and northeast winds at 7-14 mph. Winds becoming east/southeast. Variable direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 2:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:19 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Thursday Night – Some clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms increasing from the west/northwest.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable or north/northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Lower than normal confidence in the weekend forecast. These numbers may dramatically change. Some guidance shows heavy rain in our region from Friday into Tuesday. But, confidence is still too low to raise probabilities much higher. Monitor updated forecasts.
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. A few showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. High.
Moonrise will be at 3:16 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:26 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Perhaps some scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? If storms develop then wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor future updates
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Saturday – Cloudy. Mild. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-86 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Winds may turn out of the north or northeast.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 4:06 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:30 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Saturday Night – Some clouds. Mild. Can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and have a plan B.
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Sunday – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78 to 86 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southerly at 6-12 mph gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor future updates.
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:31 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Again, a chance for scattered thunderstorms. But, low confidence.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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July 4th ~ Monday – Partly cloudy. A good chance for showers or storms. Low confidence on forecast verification.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85 to 90 degree range. High temps will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor future updates.
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:00 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:25 p.m. New moon.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Again, a good chance for scattered thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66 to 72 degree range
Winds: Winds south in direction at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Low confidence forecast.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southwest and south winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor future updates.
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Again, a chance for scattered thunderstorms. But, low confidence.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66 to 72 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Warmer. More humid.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86 to 92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor future updates.
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 8:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:56 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warmer. More humid.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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Thursday – Partly sunny. Hot. More humid.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-96 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 9:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:34 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Warmer. Humid.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-77 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- A weekend headache
- Heat wave next week
Well, for the past week I have been wrestling with what to do with the holiday weekend forecast. Will it rain or won’t it rain. If it rains then how much will it rain. And, I am not sure the answers are any clearer today than they were yesterday. There are, however, substantial trends in the data. And, that will be my current discussion focus.
All guidance continues to shift northward with the heaviest rain band. Now, this rain event is stretched out over several days. It will begin on Thursday and Thursday night to our north and west. A front will slip into our region on Friday. And, the front may stall out over parts of Arkansas into Tennessee. The placement of that front is key to our sensible weather conditions. Meaning, where the front is placed will determine our rainfall totals and chances.
We need rain. Yes, some places received rain over the last few days. But, not enough of the region. Some were completely missed by the showers and storms. If we do not receive a widespread rainfall soon then damage will occur to crops. Especially true with another heat wave coming.
Here are the latest SPI numbers. This chart tells you how dry or wet ground conditions are. Plenty of yellow in our region.
And, here is the percent of normal precipitation numbers. Dry dry dry over a large chunk of the central United States. Yes, there are some areas doing well. But, many are not.
My greatest concern, in this current forecast, is that a lot of the rain misses us. Not just some of the rain. But, a lot. Right now it does appear we should have some rain between Thursday night and next Tuesday.
The front is forecast to move back northward on Friday night and Saturday. Perhaps as a warm front. As the front moves northward there will be several ripples moving along it. Disturbances, if you will. Each one of those disturbances will trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms. This will likely continue into Monday or Tuesday.
Unfortunately, the heaviest rain continue to shift northward. You can’t ignore the overall trend. I always tell you that the trend is what is important and not the exact end solution from the guidance. Models are guidance and not gospel. You have to look at the bigger picture in order to make the forecast.
It appears that the odds favor the heaviest rains falling somewhere from central and northern Missouri into central Illinois. If true, that leaves us on the southern end of the parade of rain makers.
Will it rain in our region? Yes. It absolutely will rain. But, that isn’t the real question. At one time it looked like we might end up with a general 1-3″ rain event. That would have been for just about everyone. And, there would be pockets of 3-6″ mixed in with the system. Now, those heavier rains look to fall to our north.
There will be at least a chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Tuesday. Perhaps the most widespread rain will arrive on Monday. But, low confidence on the forecast. Not all that helpful, I know.
A cold front is forecast to move through the region on Monday and Monday night. That would be more of a focus for showers and storms.
This is yet another pain in the butt system to pin down when it comes to details. Seems I remember a recent holiday weekend forecast that was similar. It isn’t like spring and fall where a cold front sweeps through the region and produces a line of showers and thunderstorms. No. This is a series of upper level disturbances moving along a boundary. Each of the disturbances triggers showers and storms. But, the EXACT placement of the boundary is key. And, that is still unknown.
My advice for everyone is to not cancel any plans. But, have a plan B in your back pocket. Then, we hope for the best. Right now the odds tend to favor you being able to find plenty of dry times for outdoor activities.
Here are a few of the latest maps.
Let’s look at the forecasted rainfall totals through next Wednesday. The last few days I have been showing you how these maps are trending north with the bigger rain totals. They have semi-settled over central and northern parts of Missouri and Illinois. Could they shift around some more? Yes, it is possible. But, when all of the data agrees one has to give it credibility.
This first map is the latest GFS model guidance. Rainfall totals through next Wednesday morning. Notice the heavy band well to our north. It has been trending that way for 72 hours.
Here the Canadian GEM model guidance. Rainfall totals through next Wednesday.
Here is the latest GEM (from 10 am on Wednesday). The one above was the Tuesday night GEM model guidance.
Here is the NAM guidance through Sunday morning (it does not go out as far as the other models). The NAM is a short range guidance model.
A major heat wave is anticipated towards the middle and end of next week. I suspect temperatures will once again rise into the 94 to 102 degree range across our region. Heat index values above 102 degrees. There are some signals that this heat wave won’t last as long as the last one. And, we can hope that is the case. If we have a prolonged heat wave then that will place more stress on crops. Farmers have reason to be concerned about this pattern. We just can’t seem to capture the better rain systems. Here are the GFS high temperatures for next Thursday, July 7th. Well into the 90’s. It is possible the heat arrives as early as Wednesday. The heat may linger for a few days. But, again, perhaps not nearly as long as the last wave of middle 90’s to lower 100’s.
Looking further out the data indicates the possibility of another trough around next weekend or the week after. That would deliver more rain chances.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night: Perhaps some evening storms over our southern counties.
A few showers and storms are possible Thursday night into Sunday. And, a bit more coverage is possible on Monday. There could be an occasionally storm complex move across parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois over the weekend. Perhaps the greatest chance centered over our northern counties vs southern. This will need to be monitored. At this time, the severe weather threat appears small.
A cold front near the region on Monday might trigger some heavier storms. And, this will also need to be monitored.
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I continue to fine tune the weekend forecast. One big headache!
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No major concerns into Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorm enter the picture Thursday night into the weekend.
Have a plan B for the weekend. In case we do have rain and storms.
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No. Not through Thursday. Umbrellas might be needed by Thursday night or Friday. And, rain chances may linger into the weekend.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
