Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 29th and 30th: Some storms. Muggy.

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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June 29, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some clouds.  Mild.  Humid.  A chance for a thunderstorm over the northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.  A few storms possible over southern portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Lesser chances elsewhere.  More humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74      KY ~ 70 to 74     TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated lighting and wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
:  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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June 30, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Warm.  Humid.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  A few storms could produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Cloud to ground lightning.  Temperatures will be dependent on how much cloud cover there is.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 85 to 88    KY ~ 85 to 88  TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Heavy downpours.  Nickel size hail.  Isolated damaging winds possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? A few severe thunderstorms possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60% to 70%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 40% to 60%    TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars.  Storms are possible.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly cloudy.  Warmer.  A chance for  showers and thunderstorms in the evening.  Then, showers and thunderstorms likely as we push later into the night.  A few storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered early and then becoming numerous late
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.

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July 1, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  A chance for thunderstorms.  Best chance may end up over southern portions of the area.  That would include the southern parts of southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.  Humid.  Warm.  Clouds might help keep temperatures down a little bit.  Best chances would likely be during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88    KY ~ 84 to 88  TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph.  Winds becoming more and more southwest and west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.  Some adjustments are possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Mild, but perhaps not as warm as recent nights.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70    IL ~ 65 to 70    KY ~ 65 to 70   TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 6 to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  An evening storm could produce lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 2, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90     KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  West and northwest winds becoming more southwestly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Mostly none.  A few reports of lightning and wet roadways possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 65 to 70    KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  Variable winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 3, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Rain probabilities may need adjusting.
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90    KY ~ 85 to 90  TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.  If a storm does form then it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Warmer.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but if a storm forms it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 4, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Rain probabilities may need adjusting.
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Hot and humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 88 to 94     IL ~ 88 to 92    KY ~ 88 to 92  TN ~ 88 to 92
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.  If a storm does form then it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but if a storm forms it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Thursday into Thursday night:  I can’t completely rule out a thunderstorm, but coverage would be limited.  If storms do occur they would produce heavy downpours and lightning.

Friday into Friday night:  Thunderstorms are possible.  There is a risk that a few storms could produce damaging winds or downburst winds.  This is not uncommon during the summer months.  Thunderstorms can reach 50 or 60 thousand feet into the atmosphere.  What goes up must come down.  Sometimes downburst winds can occur in isolated areas.

Otherwise, thunderstorms will produce heavy downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning.  Monitor updates.

Saturday into Tuesday:  Showers and thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning.  A few storms possible in the afternoon.  Thunderstorm chances will be with us Sunday into Tuesday..

I would not change any weekend plans.  I would monitor updated forecasts.  If thunderstorms approach, and you are camping, then take appropriate precautions.  In other words, use common sense.

Storms that form could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds.

beausanalysis

Warm and muggy conditions will be with us into Fourth of July.  High temperatures Friday into Tuesday will be from 85 to 90 degrees.  Temperatures may actually be higher than 90 on Tuesday.

Let’s pull out the dew point map.  People talk about how humid it is.  A lot of meteorologists tell you the relative humidity.  What determines how uncomfortable you feel is actually the dew point.

Here is the dew point chart.

Here Is the dew point forecast for Friday

Saturday dew points

Sunday dew points

Weak disturbance will be passing through the area over the coming days.  Each one of these disturbances could produce showers and thunderstorms.

I would not cancel any outdoor plans, but I would suggest monitoring updated forecasts and radars.  If thunderstorms develop then take whatever precautions are necessary.  Obviously if you are camping then you will want to monitor updates.

Thunderstorms that develop could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.  There is a chance for isolated wind damage, but an organized severe weather event appears unlikely.

The greatest risk for thunderstorms should be Friday into Friday night.  Confidence on the chances for storms on Saturday afternoon into Tuesday is rather low.  There will absolutely be thunderstorms on radar, but the coverage is questionable.  Weak disturbances this time of the year can kick off MCS’s.  MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes.  They normally form during the late afternoon hours and peak late at night.

If MCS’s form then they could throw a monkey wrench in the temperature forecast.  Clouds could shave a few degrees off the highs.  This will need to be monitored.

Bottom line, monitor updates and radars.

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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