Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 27th and 28th: Warmer air on the way.

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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June 28, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Warmer.  Perhaps some clouds late at night.  A bit more humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74      IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 68 to 74     TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
:  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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June 29, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  More humid.  Dew points will rise into the 65 to 70 degree range.  That makes it feel muggy outside.  Warmer.  Breezy, at times.  A small chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90    KY ~ 85 to 90   TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated lightning.  Isolated wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some clouds.  Mild.  Humid.  A chance for a thunderstorm over the northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.  Lesser chances elsewhere.  More humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74      KY ~ 70 to 74     TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated lighting and wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
:  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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June 30, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Warm.  Humid.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Especially during the afternoon hours.  A few storms could produce heavy downpours.  Temperatures will be dependent on how much cloud cover there is.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88    KY ~ 84 to 88  TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly cloudy.  Warmer.  A chance for  showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could produce heavy rain.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 1, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  A chance for thunderstorms.  Best chance may end up over southern portions of the area.  That would include the southern parts of southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.  Humid.  Warm.  Clouds might help keep temperatures down a little bit.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88    KY ~ 84 to 88  TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.  Some adjustments are possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but if a storm forms it could be strong.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 2, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 85 to 88    KY ~ 85 to 88  TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.  If a storm does form then it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but if a storm forms it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 3, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Rain robabilities may need adjusting.
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 85 to 88    KY ~ 85 to 88  TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.  If a storm does form then it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but if a storm forms it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 4, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Rain robabilities may need adjusting.
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 85 to 88    KY ~ 85 to 88  TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.  If a storm does form then it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but if a storm forms it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Thursday through Sunday:  Monitor updates.  A few thunderstorms are certainly possible.  I can’t rule out strong storms, but it is too early to know if severe weather is a concern.

I am monitoring Saturday into Monday for an uptick in thunderstorms activity.  Possibly heavy rain.  Monitor updates.  I can’t rule out some MCS’s.  Thunderstorm complexes.

beausanalysis

Wednesday will deliver warmer temperatures. Highs in the middle to upper 80’s. A bit more humid, as well. Dry conditions anticipated.

Thursday through Sunday

The weather becomes warmer and muggier as we push into Thursday and the weekend.

Check out the dew points by Thursday afternoon.  Back into the muggy readings.

High temperatures will rise into the middle to upper 80’s all four days. Dew points will likely rise into the muggy category (68 and above). It will feel like summer.

Temperatures will partly be dependent on clouds and thunderstorm activity.  If we have more clouds or rain, then you can lower temps by 4 to 8 degrees.

A cold front moving through the area will cause some problems, especially on Friday into the weekend.

A few widely scattered storms are possible on Thursday and Thursday night.

A cold front nears the area on Friday into Sunday. This front will spark some showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

Storm chances will be around 20% to 30% on Thursday and may rise to 60% or above on Friday and Friday night.

Some uncertainties about rain coverage on Saturday and Sunday. Plan on at least some thunderstorms in the area. I will need to monitor trends to determine coverage.

PWAT values (measure of moisture in the atmosphere) will be quite high from Thursday into the weekend. That means that any storms that develop could produce locally heavy rain totals. Typical for late June.

Lightning is always a concern for outdoor events in June and July. As always, keep an eye on your local radars.

Slow moving storms could be an issue. Recently slow moving storms produce two to four inches in a couple of hours.

Severe weather threat is not zero on Friday and Saturday, but organized severe weather appears unlikely. Monitor updates.

I would not cancel any weekend plans, but I would monitor updates.

Let me show you how the EC guidance handles the coming week.  It has multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Perhaps some MCS’s.

Here is the Friday afternoon rainfall forecast.  The EC wants to bring a thunderstorm complex into southern Missouri.

If you wonder why the graphic says Saturday OOZ it is because that is Zulu time.  OOZ would be Friday evening at 7 pm.

Here is the Saturday afternoon rainfall forecast

Here is the Sunday afternoon rainfall forecast

Here is the Monday afternoon rainfall forecast from the EC guidance.

Here is the high resolution NAM model precipitation forecast through 7 PM on Thursday.  You can see the heavy rain over northern Missouri into central Illinois.  It shows our region avoided the rain.  Perhaps a small shower/thunderstorm chance over our far far northern counties (towards Mt Vernon).

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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