Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 26, 2016: Hot and humid.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

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Saturday Night – Clearing.  Very warm.  Humid.  An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  If storms form then wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 75-80 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% before 9 p.m. and 10% after 9 p.m.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely.  But, a couple of storms could produce down burst winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny.  Hot.  Humid.  A thunderstorms possible.  Increasing clouds more likely late in the day.  A cold front may approach the region Sunday night.  And, if the front arrives earlier then storm chances might need to be increased after 9 a.m. (especially over our northern counties).  Some storms could be intense.  Down burst winds are possible again today.  Down bursts can produce 40-50+ mph wind gusts in small area.
What impact is expected?  High heat index values.  Use care.  If a storm forms then lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.  Wet roadways.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 94–98 degree range.  Heat index values at 105 or above.
Winds:  Variable winds at 4-8 mph with gusts to 14 mph.  Winds becoming more southwesterly and then eventually may become west/northwest late in the day.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered.
Is severe weather expected?  A few storms could be severe with high winds.  Small hail, as well.  Down bursts are also possible.  Intense (small) pockets of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but occasionally glance at radar.  Maybe an isolated thunderstorm will pop up during the heat of the day.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11.  Very high.
Moonrise will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 11:52 a.m.  Waning Gibbous.

Sunday Night – A few clouds from time to time.  Warm and humid.  A few scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then wet roadways and lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.
Is severe weather expected?  Small risk at any given location.  But, a few storms could produce high winds.  Small hail, as well.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radars

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Monday – Partly sunny.  Hot.  Humid.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.  Perhaps not as hot as Sunday.
What impact is expected?  Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail.  Wet roadways.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range with higher heat index values.  If we have more clouds then that could shave a few degrees off the thermometer.
Winds:  Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.  Winds becoming north/northeast during the afternoon or evening.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered to perhaps numerous as a cold front nears the region.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  Isolated severe weather is possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.  Some storms are possible along a cold front on Monday.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9.  High to very high.
Moonrise will be at 12:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:57 a.m.  Last Quarter.

Monday Night – Partly cloudy.  An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  If storms form then heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds.  Wet roadways.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest/north/northeast at 5-10 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny.  Cooler.  Perhaps less humid.
What impact is expected?  None
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.  If the front is slower than anticipated then it could be a few degrees warmer on Tuesday.
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 8-16  mph.  Gusty winds.

What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation?  None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10.  Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:04 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

Tuesday Night – Mostly clear.  Cooler.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Low confidence on the Wednesday into Friday forecast.  With northwest flow you often times will have at least some chances for showers and thunderstorms.  At this time, the disturbances appear weak.  Thus, low confidence on whether we have storms during this time period.

Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny.  Cooler.  Less humid.
What impact is expected?  None
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds:  East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph

What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10.  Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:50 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:11 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

Wednesday Night – Mostly clear.  Cooler.
What impact is expected?  None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast/east at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Thursday – Partly sunny.  Mild.  Perhaps a shower or thunderstorm moving in from the west/northwest.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 7-14 mph.  Winds becoming east/southeast.  

What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  We might have some rain on Thursday or Thursday night.
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Very high.
Moonrise will be at 2:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:19 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

Thursday Night – A few clouds.  Perhaps a scattered shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 60-66 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest  at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild.  A thunderstorm again possible.  Low confidence.
What impact is expected?  Wet raodways and lightning.  Low confidence.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds:  North winds at 5-10 mph

What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Very high.
Moonrise will be at 3:16 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:26 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild.  A little warmer.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds:  East winds at 5-10 mph

What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Very high.
Moonrise will be at 4:06 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:30 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

Saturday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5 mph.  Winds turning out of the south.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild.  A little warmer.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds:  South winds at 5-10 mph

What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Very high.
Moonrise will be at 5:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:31 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southerly at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

More information on the UV index.  Click here.

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

  1.   A couple of chances for thunderstorms
  2.   Much nicer air is on the way
  3.   Drought?

Another hot day for the region.  One of many over the past few weeks.  Dew points have been on the rise.  That means it feels more humid.  Sunday will be even more humid.  Dew points combined with temperatures into the 90’s will mean heat index values above 100 degrees.  Uncomfortable.

June may very well go down as one of the top five warmest Junes on record.  We won’t know that for a few more days.  But, across the United States it has been a very warm month.  WELL above normal temperatures.  Even with this coming weeks cool shot, it may not be able to off-set the anomalies.

Here are the month to date temperature anomalies.  Look at how much of the nation is covered in yellow, orange, and red.  The deep red indicates well above normal temperatures.  Record warmth.

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A cold front will approach from the north on Sunday night and Monday.  Scattered thunderstorms are possible along the front.  Any storms that form could be on the heavy side.  Not everyone will experience rain.  Same song and dance from the past few weeks.

The great news, in all of this, is that a much nicer air mass will move into the region by Monday night into Friday.  High temperatures will drop into the upper 70’s to middle 80’s by Wednesday and Thursday.  Perhaps 80’s on Tuesday.  Still some question on Tuesday’s temperatures.  Either way, less humid.

Normally, during the summer months, I am talking about the heat ridge.  A ridge of high pressure that builds in from the southwest or south.  Normally that would mean hot and humid.  But, when high pressure dives down from Canada, during any season, it typically means cooler air and drier air.  Well, here it comes.  Watch to the north and west of us.  The big blue H.  That is Canadian high pressure.  Much needed relief from the heat.

This if for Tuesday evening.

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and this is for Wednesday afternoon.  Fresh air.

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Another cold front may (low confidence) approach the region on Thursday or Thursday night.  Hopefully we can pop a few more thunderstorms.  We need rain.

Below normal temperatures are likely from Tuesday through at least Friday.  Perhaps into next weekend.  I am monitoring another front around July 4th-8th.  And, the Bering Sea rule indicates a ridge of high pressure builds back into the region around the 9th through the 18th.  If that happens then high temperatures well into the 90’s to lower 100’s will be possible.

We must pick up some rain before the next heat wave.  If we do not pick up rain then drought will follow.  It is a concern.

Here is the six to ten day temperature outlook (for next week).  Below normal temperatures in blue.  Lot of blue on that map!

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Here is the 10 day GFS rainfall map.  Notice that heavy band in the white box.  That is the MCS train.  MCS’s are large thunderstorm complexes.  They typically form at night and track from the northwest towards the southeast.  Much needed rain typically falls in MCS’s.  Unfortunately, the data is pointing towards the MCS train being to our west.  We just can’t win.  There is still time for a shift, but it isn’t looking good.  This guidance takes us into July 5th.

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The image above was from the Saturday morning run of the GFS.  Let’s look at the late morning run of the GFS.  The GFS is run four times each day.  You can see the heaviest totals are still situated to our west.  This particular map is through July 4th.

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We need MCS’s or a tropical feature to help our cause.  I am increasingly concerned about the lack of rainfall.

We were doing so well during the spring months.  We had plenty of rain.  Here is the May national precipitation map.  We were in the above normal category.

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Here is what the GFS future-cast IR satellite looks like.  The bright colors are thunderstorm complexes.  Watch where the GFS rolls them over the coming 5-7 days

Here is the Wednesday morning MCS.  It rolls through South Dakota into Nebraska and eventually into Kansas.  Bright red are high thunderstorm tops.

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This next future-cast satellite view is for Thursday evening.  Perhaps another one forming in Nebraska and Kansas.

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This next map is for Thursday night and early Friday morning.  Another complex to the west.

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This next satellite view is the forecast for next Friday night and Saturday.  This is bad news for our region.  Mostly west of us.

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We will soon be under a drought watch.  Something needs to change soon.

This is the current drought map.  We are not in abnormally dry, yet.  But, it won’t be much longer and we will officially be placed in the yellow zone.

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Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Saturday night into Monday:  Scattered thunderstorms from time to time.  Not everyone will pick up measurable rain.  And, some spots could pick up one to three inches.  Summer storms.  A few storms could produce frequent lightning, high winds, and small hail.  Torrential downpours in slow moving storms.  Small flash flood risk at any given spot.  Keep in mind, storms during the summer can produce extremely heavy rain in short periods of time.  Thus, isolated flash flooding is always a possibility.

Isolated severe thunderstorm warnings are possible in this environment.  Severe storms would likely be short lived.  And, the main concern would probably be down burst winds.

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Main update was for Tuesday’s high temperatures.  Otherwise, small changes.
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A couple of concerns over the coming seven to ten days.

  1.   The heat.  Heat index values, when thunderstorms and clouds are not present, will range from 95-105 degrees.
  2.   A scattered storm is possible on Sunday.  Most will remain dry.  A few storms could produce strong winds, pea to dime size hail, and frequent lightning,   Heavy rain totals in isolated spots could top 1-3″.
  3.   A cold front will deliver additional rain chances on Monday.  And, FINALLY we move into northwest flow next week.  If true then at least some storm chances possible next week, as well.  Hoping the main storm track is not to our west.

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Yes.  Hot conditions on Sunday.  Don’t forget our outdoor pets.  Freshen those water bowls a couple of times each day.  Heat index values above 100 on both Saturday and Sunday.  UV index of 9-11.  Sun screen weather.

Isolated to scattered storms possible on Sunday.  Storms that form could produce cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain, and pea to dime size hail.  An isolated down burst possible.  Down bursts are winds that develop from collapsing thunderstorms.  They can gust over 50 mph.

A few storms are possible Sunday night and Monday, as well.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Much like recent weeks, rainfall totals will vary greatly across the region.  Many areas may receive no rain.  Other spots will pick up 1-3″ in an hour or two.  This has been the case for at least the past three weeks.  The best chance for showers and storms will probably be Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon.  And, even at that time, the chances will probably remain the 40%-50% range.

I am monitoring another cold front on Thursday.  Then another one around Fourth of July.  Both could deliver showers and storms to the region.
A heavy rain corridor is likely to set up, over the next ten days, to our west.  Mostly from Nebraska into Arkansas.  This would be bad news for our region.  If the storm track is too far west then we miss out on much needed rainfall.  If we don’t pick up widespread rain soon then we will enter drought.
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You can see that heavy rain corridor on this GFS model map from weatherbell.com    Notice the big totals in the white box.  We need this to shift eastward.  Models have been showing it to our west for awhile.  Not overly hopeful for a major shift east.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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