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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or storm near the Kentucky/Tennessee line and into northwest Tennessee. Also a couple of cells in southeast Missouri late this afternoon and Wednesday evening. A dying area of storms may approach our northern counties after midnight tonight. Not as warm or muggy as recent nights. Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70. South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% south
What impact is expected? No major impact expected.
Thursday – Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times. Warm and becoming more humid, again. A small chance for some scattered thunderstorms. Highs into the upper 80’s to middle 90’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph with occasional gusts above 20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates for our northern counties and northwestern counties…mainly late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? IF storms were to develop then they could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and even hail. Lightning. Hot. Heat index near 100 or a bit above in some counties.
Thursday night – Increasing clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms moving in from the north and northwest. Locally heavy downpours possible over our northern counties. I64 corridor…that area. Storms will then diminish as they track further south. Lows mainly in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph. Winds may shift to the northwest late at speeds of 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay in the evening. Late at night there could be storms moving in from the north.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk over our northern counties at any given location. High winds and few reports of hail can’t be ruled out.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% southern counties (west KY and far southern IL) and 60% northern counties (Carbondale to Evansville northward).
What impact is expected? Some locally heavy rain for our northern counties. Lightning. Gusty winds near the leading edge of any storms (30-35 mph gusts).
Friday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 30%-40% chance for morning thunderstorms (best chance first over northern counties and then moving southward) and then a 60%-70% chance for thunderstorms redeveloping during the afternoon. Locally heavy rain possible where storms occur. A couple of storms could produce high winds and hail. This will depend on how unstable the atmosphere becomes Friday morning and early afternoon. Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Winds becoming northwest.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radars and at least have a back up plan in mind.
Is severe weather expected? I can’t rule out a couple of storms becoming severe.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% during the morning and 60%-70% in the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain and lightning where storms do occur. Gusty winds possible near storms, as well. Isolated severe thunderstorm possible.
Friday night – A near 100% chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Lows in the 60’s. Northwest winds at 10-15 mph gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk
What is the chance for precipitation? Near 100%
What impact is expected? Heavy rainfall amounts are possible. Training cells could cause problems with flash flooding in a few spots. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Saturday – Early morning rain and storms giving way to partly cloudy sky conditions during the late morning and afternoon hours. Cooler and less humid. Gusty winds from the north at 10-20 mph. Highs in the 80’s.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Early morning we could have some rain still in the area. Moving out by mid to late morning. Kentucky would have the highest chance after 9 am. We should see the precipitation move out fairly quickly on Saturday.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% after 9 am for southern Illinois and most of southeast Missouri. 50%-60% before 10 am for the Missouri Bootheel and western Kentucky.
What impact is expected? If storms linger then there could be some locally heavy rain.
Saturday night – Clear and cool. Camping weather. Lows in the upper 50’s north and 60’s elsewhere. North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Quite a bit of sun. Some puffy fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Highs only in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Nice weather. North winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Maybe some more showers late Sunday night into Monday.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Our well advertised cold front is coming! Did you know we started talking about this cooler weather back at the end of May! The long range cycle worked.
2. Heavy rain concerns for Thursday night (north)/Friday and Friday night for most areas. Some debate on timing of precipitation.
3. Much cooler weather for the weekend
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Well, today ended up cooler than expected. I was thinking upper 80’s and 90’s. Some places over our northern counties are still in the lower 80’s. Where there are clouds I even saw some 70’s as of 1 pm.
Here was the 1 pm temperature map. I am sure nobody is complaining that it was cooler today than forecast.
Strong cold front arrives on Friday
I have been talking about this cool down that is coming…well forever! Well, okay…not forever. But for more than a month. Using the long range cycle technique the hints of a cooler end of the Month of June into July were there. And so it will be.
A strong cold front will advance through our region on Friday into Friday night. This front will not only usher in a much cooler air-mass it will also bring heavy thunderstorms.
Late tonight (Wednesday night) there may be a dying area of storms moving in from central Illinois. This could nip our northern counties after midnight.
On Thursday during the day an outflow boundary could trigger a few more storms over the area. Then the cold front approaches late in the day. An increasing chance for storms will develop from our northwest and northern counties.
Storms should increase on Thursday evening and night. First over our northern counties. Northern counties would include areas along a line from near Farmington, Missouri eastward towards Evansville, Indiana.
By Friday morning the thunderstorms should be weakening and sagging further south. They may even diminish completely. We may see somewhat of a lull on Friday (some debate on this). Then another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms would develop on Friday afternoon into Friday night.
That leaves a few questions for Friday between 8 am and 3 pm. Will it or won’t it rain. Right now it appears that storms will rapidly redevelop at some point during the afternoon and evening.
Let’s look at the high resolution WRF model and how it handles all of this.
These are future-cast radar images from Hazwx.com
Let’s walk through Thursday night. See the storms coming in from the north? That is the front sagging southward. Best chance of storms on Thursday night will be north vs south.
This is the 7 PM Thursday future-cast radar.
Keep in mind that some data shows more storms than this early Thursday evening and even further south. Low confidence on the exact placement and how far south storms will end up being placed.
Now let’s move into early Friday morning around 1 am. You can see the storms attempting to move further and further southward. They should be on the weakening side the further south they track. A couple of storms Thursday night over our northern counties could produce isolated severe weather. Low confidence on that.
Now let’s move into the early morning hours. 7 am to 10 am Friday. Poof the overnight storm complex and line has diminished to just a few showers and clouds. But, look to the northwest. Here it comes. Our near 100% chances for rain by Friday night.
Moving forward through Friday. This image below is for the 1 pm time frame. Storms are forming to our west and northwest. They will increase in intensity and coverage throughout Friday afternoon.
Here is the 4 pm map for Friday afternoon. A lot of storms forming over our region. A few could be severe, but confidence on severe weather is low. Higher confidence for locally heavy rain.
Friday night will be a soaker. This is the 7 pm image. I am concerned about heavy rain and even the potential for flash flooding. Monitor updates on Friday.
There is a risk for a few severe thunderstorms on Thursday night over our northern counties. If that were to occur then damaging winds and hail would be the main concern. The risk at any given location is small. I will keep an eye on it.
And, like I said…Friday I can’t rule out a couple of severe storms during the afternoon and evening, as well. This will need to be monitored as we move forward.
Let’s just take a quick look at the Friday CAPE values. This is Friday afternoon. CAPE is basically energy. Once you start seeing 2000, 3000, 4000, and upwards then you start to think about severe weather. There could be a lot of clouds in our region Friday. If so then that will keep CAPE values lower. Not sure on this.
This is what the WRF model is showing. There is a decent amount of CAPE over some of our counties. Thus, we will need to keep an eye on Friday afternoon.
We will see temperatures fall into the 70’s and lower 80’s by Saturday and Sunday. How about that! Sounds a lot better than the middle 90’s.
Dew points will also be much lower. Humidity will feel better outside. That is also great news.
Rainfall totals could be on the heavy side for some of our counties between Thursday night and Friday night. Perhaps in the 0.50″-1.50″ range with pockets of 2″-4″ likely. I can’t rule out some flash flooding in areas that are water logged from recent rainfall. Especially true over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Any storms that stall out or train over the same counties could cause very heavy rainfall amounts.
Let’s check those temperatures out
Thursday high temperatures
Friday high temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Cooler weather will stick around into July. Keep in mind cooler is a relative term in July.
2. What about multiple rounds of precipitation in the long range?
Another system will approach the area on Sunday night and Monday. Maybe a few showers.
Some data indicates another cold front approaches around Tuesday night or Wednesday. Some heavy rain possible with that event. Still a long way off for details. But, I am monitoring it.
I believe the next 14 days will bring unsettled weather. Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some concern about excessive rainfall. This will need to be monitored.
This will NOT be a typical July pattern for our region.
Right now, fingers crossed and with low confidence…the Fourth of July might end up partly cloudy with below normal temperatures. Long long way off to call that shot. There are some data sets that show rain that weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal for the majority of the June 27th through at least July 6th time period. Maybe beyond that.
Here is the GFS model from wright-weather for temperatures over the coming 1-2 weeks
Some nice temperatures on this map. There could also be frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This will need to be monitored since the rivers are high. I do expect above normal precipitation in July.
This is for Thursday, June 26th. The purple represents 90’s. Say bye to those.
Here is the July 1st temperature map. 80’s.
Here is the July 4th map. 80’s
Here is the July 6th map. 70’s and 80’s.
And finally, here is the July 8th map. 70’s Of course that is a long way off. We will see if that verifies.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Widespread rain will arrive starting over our northern counties on Thursday night and spreading into all of the area by Friday and Friday night.
Rainfall totals by Saturday morning should range from 0.50″-1.50″ across most of the area. Pockets of greater than 4″ will likely occur in spots. Keep that in mind. I can’t rule out some ponding of water over roadways and even some pockets of flooding/flash flooding. Same as the last few weeks.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE for Thursday and TWO for Thursday night through Friday night.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms are possible over our northern counties by Thursday night. A couple of storms could produce high winds and hail.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Storms are likely both on Friday and Friday night. Small risk for severe weather.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. Some morning storms may linger over western Kentucky.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
We do have some concerns on Thursday night into Friday night. Locally heavy rain could cause some problems. Parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois are already water logged (some counties). Additional heavy rain will only cause more problems.
Major river flooding is occurring along the Mississippi River. The Ohio River also is rising. This rainfall event will help keep the rivers high a bit longer.
There is a small risk for severe weather Thursday night into Friday night. Widespread severe weather does not appear likely. The risk at any given location appears small. I can’t rule out a few reports of large hail and damaging winds. I will keep an eye on the situation. Some questions remain on cloud cover for Friday. How unstable it will or won’t become.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
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Regional Radar
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Warnings
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
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