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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for some thunderstorms, especially over parts of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. A little less confidence about far SE MO and far west KY. But, monitor radars. Some storms could be severe. Lows in the 70’s. South winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? A few severe storms possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
What impact is expected? If storms occur they would produce heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Severe weather is possible.
Monday – Partly cloudy. A slight chance for a thunderstorm. Hot and muggy. Heat index values above 100 degrees. Actual temperatures will into the 90’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Heat concerns. Heat index values will be above 100 degrees.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for some thunderstorms moving in from the north and northwest. Low confidence. Warm and muggy. Lows in the 70’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Low risk for storms.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and hot. A 20% chance for a thunderstorm. Heat index values above 100 degrees. Highs will be well into the 90’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Heat concerns. Heat index values will be above 100 degrees. If a storm pops up then heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A 40% chance for thunderstorms. Warm and muggy. Lows in the 70’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds…where storms occur (if they occur).
Wednesday – A chance for a morning storm. Then, partly sunny and hot. Heat index values above 100 degrees. Highs will be well into the 90’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% in the morning.
What impact is expected? Heat concerns. Heat index values will be above 100 degrees.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Main topic will be the heat
2. Some on and off storm chances (especially northern and northeastern counties of the area)
3. Cold front by the end of the week will bring relief
4. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Sunday evening we have to deal with some thunderstorms. I am monitoring for severe weather. Monitor the Facebook page, if you have Facebook. I will be updating there.
Very high dew points today. Dew points reached the middle 70’s over much of the area. Tropical air. Very unstable atmosphere, as well. Lot of energy built up.
Monday into Thursday will bring hot and humid conditions.
A front/boundary near our region on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could spark a round of thunderstorms. IF that happens then storms could be heavy with frequent lightning and gusty winds. Low confidence on development.
Thursday will bring a cold front southward from central Illinois. By Thursday night into Saturday we will have on and off thunderstorm chances. Some storms will be heavy.
Right now Sunday appears dry, but monitor updates.
Cold front arrives on Friday/Saturday and this will usher in cooler air and less humidity into the first part of July.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Heat this week followed by a cold front on Friday.
2. Below normal temperatures or at least somewhat cooler expected into the first week of July.
3. Heat may return after that time period? Low confidence on how the heat ridge spreads back into the region.
The main topic for the long range forecast will be a cold front expected into our region by Friday or so. This front will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast.
Once the front sags far enough south we should see a break from the higher dew point and humidity levels. At least temporarily. The question then becomes…how long does it last?
Some of the data shows the heat returning by the second week of July. We will enjoy whatever break we can get. Especially after this upcoming weeks heat. It won’t be pleasant.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Some locally heavy rain tonight (Sunday night) for parts of the area. Another round possible Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Heavy rain possible IF storms develop.
The next good chance for showers and storms should arrive with a cold front around Thursday night or Friday.
Monitor updates as we move forward.
As always, rainfall totals will vary greatly. Same as the past month. Some places will have torrential downpours and neighboring counties will have less. The best chance for big totals between now and Wednesday morning would be southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Further south you travel the less confidence in rainfall.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE/TWO. Sunday evening some storms could be severe. Otherwise, Monday should be mostly dry. I can’t rule out a stray popup storm in the heat of the day. If a storm were to manage to form then it would be strong. Lot of energy in the atmosphere.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Low risk for storms…perhaps northern counties (monitor updates…low confidence)
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. Morning storms are possible.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms are possible
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms are possible
Some evening storms this evening (Sunday). Some could be strong with gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain.
Heat is the main concern over the next few days. Heat index values of 100+ will be common on Monday through Thursday.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card for the coming week will be these on and off storm chances over our northern and northeastern counties. A frontal system will be within reach. But, can it trigger some showers and storms? Appears possible. Just not confident they will make it very far south. I will keep an eye on the front and the placement of any storm chances over the coming 3-4 days.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
