Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 21, 2018: Non-subscriber post. Some thunderstorms to monitor. Warm.

11 AM Update

Some of the storms could be severe this afternoon and evening.  Damaging wind and hail will be the main concern.  Tornado risk is low.

Here are some model animations of what might unfold.

A line of storms forms and then moves across the area.

Time stamp upper left.

Facebook Severe Weather Thread Link

https://wtalk.co/KY7ZMDEX

 

 

Here is another one

 

 

High resolution models are showing a squall line later today (a line of storms).

Not everyone will see severe weather.  Many areas will pick up a thunderstorm.

This is just one snap-shot in time.  The line would of course be moving.

 

 

 

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June 21, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially this afternoon.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.  A few storms could be intense.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 80 to 85      IL ~ 80 to 85       KY ~ 82 to 85       TN ~  82 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Torrential downpours, gusty winds, and hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars
UV Index: 3 to 5
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.  A few intense storms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 68       KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~  60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered numerous
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 2:13 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 1:41 AM

 

June 22, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds. Not as warm.  Thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 78 to 84      IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 82 to 85       TN ~  82 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 40%  to 50%        TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.  Some question on coverage with an area of low pressure near the area.
Winds: Southwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars and updated forecasts.
UV Index:6 to 9 (some uncertainty on cloud cover)
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 66       IL ~ 63 to 66       KY ~ 64 to 68        TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20% to 30%     IL ~ 20% to 30%       KY ~ 20% to 30%        TN ~ 20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Winds: West at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars and updated forecasts.
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 3:13 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:13 AM

 

June 23, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy with an isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86      IL ~ 82 to 86       KY ~ 83 to 86      TN ~  83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Winds: West and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars and updated forecasts.
UV Index: 7 to 9 High (depending on cloud cover)
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  The track of a large area of showers and thunderstorms is in question Saturday night into Sunday.  Monitor updates.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 66 to 70       KY ~ 66 to 70        TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%  to 60%   IL ~ 50%       KY ~ 50%        TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 4:13 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:45 AM

 

June 24, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 84 to 88      IL ~ 84 to 88       KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~  84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 50% to 60%        KY ~ 50% to 60%        TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20.  Winds becoming west and northwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars and updated forecasts.
UV Index: 4 to 8 (depending on cloud cover)
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72        TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 40%  to 50%        TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars and updated forecasts.
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 5:11 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:18 AM

 

June 25, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Isolated thunderstorms again possible.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 85 to 90      IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90       TN ~  85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds:  Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74       IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74        TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10% to 20%      IL ~ 10% to 20%       KY ~  10% to 20%         TN ~ 10% to 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 6:09 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:54 AM

 

June 26, 2018
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy and warm.  Humid.  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 85 to 90      IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90       TN ~  85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Mild.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74       IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74        TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: South and southeast 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:19PM
Moonrise: 7:04 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:33AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

 

We will have on and off shower and thunderstorm chances into the weekend.

Heavy rain will occur where thunderstorms form.  Pockets of flash flooding possible.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

A WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.

Here is the 48 hour WPC rainfall forecast

 

 

5 day rainfall forecast (all five days added together)

 

 

7 day rainfall totals (all seven days added together)

 

 

This next graphic is the NAM model guidance rainfall forecast

Click images to enlarge

 

 

The NAM model

 

 

This next graphic is the GFS

 

 

This next graphic is the GEM model rainfall

 

 

.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions?  Broken links?  Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Thursday into Thursday night: I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorm warnings.  Thunderstorms today and tonight could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and nickel size hail.  Thunderstorm coverage should increase Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.  Some of those storms will be intense with locally heavy rain, gusty wind, and nickel size hail.

Heavy rain is likely where storms form.  Flash flooding is a concern if thunderstorms train over the same areas.  Training is when several thunderstorms move over the same area.  This enhances rainfall totals.

Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce frequent cloud to ground lightning.  Monitor updates.

Friday through Tuesday: Additional thunderstorms are possible during this time frame.  Some of the storms will again produce heavy rain, gusty wind, and nickel size hail.

I will be monitoring for an MCS Saturday night and Sunday.  An MCS is a large complex of thunderstorms.  These can occasionally  produce severe weather.  It is possible that it stays to our southwest.  Monitor updates.

There will also be a risk of downburst winds.  Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are downbursts?

 

 

 

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Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. Shower and thunderstorm activity
  2. Locally heavy rain possible

 

The main weather story continues to be showers and thunderstorms.

Widespread showers and some thunderstorms moved across much of the area overnight.  Some of the rain was heavy.

PWAT values were near or exceeded record highs.  PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  You have to be more concerned about PWAT values when thunderstorms occur.  Thunderstorms with high PWAT values can produce an inch or two of rain in less than thirty minutes.

We will have some thunderstorm this afternoon and this evening.  CAPE values (a measure of energy in the atmosphere) will be key to whether we have additional thunderstorm development later today into tonight.

If storms form they will produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and perhaps hail.  A couple of thunderstorms could be severe.

An upper level low will pass through the region over the next 36 to 48 hours.

These upper level low can cause cold air funnels.  These funnels rarely reach the ground and are of a novelty than anything else.  They can form from basic fair weather cumulus clouds.  They are quite photogenic.

Upper level lows typically have colder air associated with them at the upper levels of the atmosphere.  That does increase the risk of hail reports.  I will be keeping an eye on radars and satellite imagery today into Friday evening.

All of this moisture is moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

Check out these satellite images.  Click them to enlarge them.

This first image is actually radar.  Notice the rain extends from Minnesota into Mexico.

 

 

This is a visible satellite imagery.  Moisture feed extends into the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.  This is why PWAT values are so high.

 

 

Here is the water vapor image.  This helps find areas of higher moisture levels.  Again, this extends into the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

Here is the PWAT map last night.  These are extreme numbers.

Notice the 2.4 numbers in Arkansas.  Those are very high PWAT value numbers.

 

 

 

Saturday will likely give us a break from numerous showers and thunderstorms.  A few isolated storms are possible.

Thunderstorm activity will increase Saturday night and Sunday.

There are some questions about coverage.  Some of the guidance develops an MCS to our west.  This MCS will push eastward and southeastward.

It is possible that the MCS misses us to the south and southwest.  This remains a question.

If the MCS (thunderstorm complex) does move into our region then locally heavy rain, gusty winds, lightning, and hail will be possible.  Monitor updates.  Confidence in the MCS moving into our region is low.

 

 

The preliminary July forecast has been updated.  The heat will likely be the big story.

These graphics are for subscribers.

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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team.  I pay them to help with videos.  They have a great team of meteorologists.  The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area.  They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical.  Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.  Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE:  THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

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Illinois/Ohio Valley

 

 

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Missouri Valley and Central Plains

 

 

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Long Range

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined.  It is not an exact science.

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

 

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These graphics are for subscribers.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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June temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for April through June.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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Precipitation outlook for March through May.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

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August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

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A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 648

Today’s WeatherBrain is Steven Zubrick, the Science and Operations Officer at National Weather Service in Sterling, VA.  Steve has previously appeared on WeatherBrains; welcome back to the show!   Also, joining us as Guest Panelist is Tanja Fransen, Meteorologist In Charge of the National Weather Service in Glasgow MT.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Looking back at Hurricane Frederic of 1979
  • Summer Policy Colloquium 2018
  • Ellicott City MD floods of 2016 and 2018
  • Discussion on EAS Alerts
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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