Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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June 20, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Warm and humid.  Widely scattered locally heavy thunderstorms.   Best chance of storms will be closer to I64 vs further south.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 90      IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90       TN ~  85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% to 40%      IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated to widely scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 6 to 8  Moderate
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms increasingly likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72        TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%     IL ~  60%      KY ~  70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous (esp late)
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:10 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:09 AM

June 21, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 80 to 85      IL ~ 80 to 85       KY ~ 80 to 85       TN ~  80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars
UV Index: 3 to 5
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 68       KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~  60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 2:13 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 1:41 AM

June 22, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds. Not as warm.  Thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 78 to 84      IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 82 to 85       TN ~  82 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 40%  to 50%        TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.  Some question on coverage with an area of low pressure near the area.
Winds: Southwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars and updated forecasts.
UV Index:6 to 9 (some uncertainty on cloud cover)
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 66       IL ~ 63 to 66       KY ~ 64 to 68        TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20% to 30%     IL ~ 20% to 30%       KY ~ 20% to 30%        TN ~ 20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Winds: West at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars and updated forecasts.
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 3:13 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:13 AM

June 23, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.  There is uncertainty about rain coverage Saturday.  If you have outdoor plans then monitor updates.  It is possible the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will extend from Poplar Bluff towards Paducah and then southward.  Perhaps lesser chances as you move north.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86      IL ~ 82 to 86       KY ~ 83 to 86      TN ~  83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
Winds: West and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars and updated forecasts.
UV Index: 7 to 9 High (depending on cloud cover)
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 66 to 70       KY ~ 66 to 70        TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%  to 60%   IL ~ 50%       KY ~ 50%        TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous.
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 4:13 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:45 AM

June 24, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 84 to 88      IL ~ 84 to 88       KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~  84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 50% to 60%        KY ~ 50% to 60%        TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars and updated forecasts.
UV Index: 4 to 8 (depending on cloud cover)
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72        TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% to 40%     IL ~ 30% to 40%       KY ~ 30%  to 40%        TN ~ 30% to 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars and updated forecasts.
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 5:11 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:18 AM

June 25, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy and warm.  Isolated thunderstorms again possible.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 84 to 88      IL ~ 84 to 88       KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~  84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74       IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74        TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10% to 20%      IL ~ 10% to 20%       KY ~  10% to 20%         TN ~ 10% to 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 6:09 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:54 AM

June 26, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy and warm.  Humid.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 85 to 88      IL ~ 85 to 88       KY ~ 85 to 88       TN ~  85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:33 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Mild.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74       IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74        TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:23 PM
Moonrise: 7:07 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:31 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

We will have on and off shower and thunderstorm chances into the weekend.

Heavy rain will occur where thunderstorms form.  Pockets of flash flooding possible.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

A WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.

Here is the 48 hour WPC rainfall forecast

5 day rainfall forecast (all five days added together)

7 day rainfall totals (all seven days added together)

This next graphic is the NAM model guidance rainfall forecast

Click images to enlarge

The NAM model

This next graphic is the GFS

This next graphic is the GEM model rainfall

.

Questions?  Broken links?  Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Wednesday through Thursday: I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorm warnings.  Thunderstorms today and tonight could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and nickel size hail.  Thunderstorm coverage should increase Thursday into Thursday night.  Some of those storms will be intense with locally heavy rain, gusty wind, and nickel size hail.

Heavy rain is likely where storms form.  Flash flooding is a concern if thunderstorms train over the same areas.  Training is when several thunderstorms move over the same area.  This enhances rainfall totals.

Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce frequent cloud to ground lightning.  Monitor updates.

Friday through Sunday: Additional thunderstorms are possible during this time frame.  Some of the storms will again produce heavy rain, gusty wind, and nickel size hail.

There will also be a risk of downburst winds.  Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are downbursts?

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

Weather Headlines

1. Warm and humid weather.
2. Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
3. Locally heavy rain possible

Temperatures are going to drop a few degrees over the coming days.  This will be because of a frontal boundary and several disturbances that will move across our region.

Clouds and precipitation will equal temperatures only in the 80’s vs 90’s.  We may have a few 90’s today, but Thursday into Sunday will likely be dominated by 80’s.

It will remain humid.

We are going to have several rounds of thunderstorms over the coming days.

Widely scattered activity is possible today.  The best chance may end up near I=64.  Typical summer thunderstorms.  These can produce locally heavy rain.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase over the entire area tonight into Thursday.   The peak of the activity will likely be Thursday into Thursday night.

Some of the thunderstorms will produce torrential downpours.  That could mean flash flooding in a few spots.  This is the time of year where thunderstorms are prolific rain producers.  Storms can easily produce one to two inches of rain per hour (sometimes in one-half hour).

There is a low end (marginal/level one) risk of severe weather over the coming days.  The main concern will be downburst winds.  Downburst winds can produce 50+ mph winds.  They are common in the summer.

I can’t rule out cold air funnels as an upper level low passes through the region Friday.  Cold air funnels normally do not touch down.  They are more of a novelty than anything else.

Saturday and Sunday

There remain questions about thunderstorm coverage Saturday and Sunday.

I feel confident we will have thunderstorm chances both days.  Perhaps an increase Saturday night into Sunday.

If you have weekend plans then monitor updates.  Some storms are likely.  Locally heavy rain will be a concern.  That is always a concern during the summer months.  There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.

Cloud to ground lightning will also be a concern.  I know many of you have outdoor activities.  Let’s keep an eye on the forecast.

Hay Cutting Forecast

Not the best time to cut hay.  Shower and thunderstorm activity will cause problems.

The preliminary July forecast has been updated.  The heat will likely be the big story.

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These graphics are for subscribers.

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These graphics are for subscribers.

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These graphics are for subscribers.

These graphics are for subscribers.

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Precipitation outlook for March through May.

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Temperature outlook for June through August.

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July temperature and precipitation outlook

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August temperature and precipitation outlook

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