Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 2, 2018: Brief weekend update.

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June 02, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Partly sunny.  Hot and muggy.  Scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.  The best chance will be during the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 90      IL ~ 86 to 90       KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~  86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous late in the day.  Greatest coverage may be over southeast Missouri.
Winds:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roads and lightning.  Heavy rain possible where storms occur.  Monitor the severe weather risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Some storms could be severe.  Monitor updates.  Severe storms are possible.  Greatest risk will be over Missouri into Tennessee.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 10  High
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warm and humid.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.  Some of the storms could be severe.  Greatest coverage could be over southeast Missouri, but confidence is low.  Monitor updates concerning Saturday night’s weather.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 64 to 68       KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.  Lower than normal confidence.
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.  Winds becoming west and eventually northwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Severe storms possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  Severe storms are possible.  Greatest risk will be over Missouri into Tennessee.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:09 PM
Moonrise: 11:31 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:57 AM

 

June 03, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  Some cumulus clouds may form.  Breezy.  Not as hot.  Not as humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 85      IL ~ 82 to 85       KY ~ 80 to 85       TN ~  82 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Winds:  North and northwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear and cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 64       IL ~ 58 to 62     KY ~ 60 to 64        TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%      IL ~  5%       KY ~  5%          TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Winds: North and northwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:11 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:50 AM

 

June 04, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Morning sun.  Increasing clouds during the afternoon hours.  We should remain dry.  Perhaps some virga.  Lower atmosphere appears to be too dry for rain to make it to the surface.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 80 to 84      IL ~ 80 to 84      KY ~ 80 to 84       TN ~  80 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High to very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Any evening clouds will depart.  Cool.  Nice night.  Lower dew points.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 60       IL ~ 56 to 60     KY ~ 56 to 60        TN ~ 56 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Light and variable winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:11 PM
Moonrise: 12:10 AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:45 AM

 

June 05, 2018
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  A nice day anticipated.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 83 to 86      IL ~ 83 to 86       KY ~ 83 to 86       TN ~  83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High to very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear and cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 64       IL ~ 58 to 62     KY ~ 60 to 64        TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Southwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:12 PM
Moonrise: 12:46 AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:41 AM

 

June 06, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A bit warmer and a bit more humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 84 to 88      IL ~ 83 to 86       KY ~ 83 to 88       TN ~  83 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Light and variable winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  More humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68       IL ~ 64 to 66     KY ~ 64 to 68        TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%      IL ~  5%       KY ~  5%          TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:12 PM
Moonrise: 1:13 AM Last Quarter
Moonset: 12:39 PM

 

June 07, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Afternoon Cumulus clouds.  Warm and humid.  A slight chance of a thunderstorm over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 90      IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90       TN ~  85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%      IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%          TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Winds:  South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none for most areas.  Lightning and wet roads in isolated areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Warm.  Humid.  Widely scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 70      KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Winds:  South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps lightning and wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Medium
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 1:50 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:37 PM

 

June 08, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A widely scattered thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 90      IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90       TN ~  85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 9 to 11 Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Scattered thunderstorms.  Warm. Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 2:21 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:38 PM

 

June 09, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered storms again possible.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 88       IL ~85 to 88      KY ~ 85 to 88        TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds:  Southwest 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads.  Heavy downpours. Lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads.  Heavy downpours. Lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 2:53 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:40 PM

 

June 10, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86      IL ~ 82 to 86       KY ~ 82 to 86       TN ~  82 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Heavy downpours.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 3:26 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:46 PM

 

June 11, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86      IL ~ 82 to 86       KY ~ 82 to 86       TN ~  82 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 4:03 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:54 PM

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RAIN TOTALS

It is important to remember, late spring and summer thunderstorms can drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time.  Rain rates can occasionally exceed 1.5 to 2″ per hour.  This can cause brief periods of flash flooding or ponding of water.

It is next to impossible to forecast which county will receive more rain than a neighboring county.  Typical, for our region.  Your neighbor can pick up a heavy thunderstorm and you end up with just a few drops.

I am monitoring additional thunderstorm chances (mainly on Saturday).  Some of the storms could be intense and produce heavy rain.

Flash flooding is a concern with high PWAT (moisture) levels.  PWAT values will top 1.7″ today.  Very high numbers.  Slow moving storms could produce extremely heavy downpours.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one.  Click here.

 

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Saturday and Saturday night:  We have another risk of thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.  Some of these storms could be intense with hail and high winds.  Monitor updates concerning the weekend threat of severe thunderstorms.

The greatest risk will be over southeast Missouri into Tennessee.  Lesser risk across Illinois and Kentucky.

There remain a lot of questions about how Saturday’s weather will unfold.  The greatest risk may end up being over southeast Missouri.

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Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

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Saturday, June 2, 2018

I am struggling with the Saturday afternoon and evening forecast.

The Storm Prediction Center has officially placed the entire area in a risk of severe thunderstorms.

They have expanded the level 2 risk further east and it now covers most of southern Illinois and a chunk of western Kentucky.

All of southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee is in a level 2 out of 5 risk (2 being lower).

A level 1 risk covers everyone else.

I am not overly impressed with this setup. Shear is very weak over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

I believe the severe weather risk in southern Illinois and western Kentucky is low. It is not a zero risk and deserves to be monitored. CAPE (measure of energy) numbers are very high.

CAPE, however, without wind shear is not enough for organized severe weather.

High CAPE without wind shear typically means severe storms would be short lived. Pulsing up to severe levels and then weakening.

Perhaps some storms will pulse up to near severe levels in Illinois and Kentucky, but overall it may be difficult for storms to maintain severe levels.

I think the greater risk is over southern Missouri into Arkansas.

Areas of southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee will want to monitor updates today. Coverage there should be greater than everywhere else.

If severe weather were to develop it would be a bit more likely in those areas.

Damaging wind and hail are the primary concern. Lightning, of course. Tornado risk is low.

PWAT values are high. PWAT is a measure of moisture. Very heavy rain will occur where storms form.

I will keep an eye on it. If something changes then I will post an update and start a severe weather thread.

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

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WeatherBrains Episode 645

The first named storm of 2018 is now in the books, so we’re going to be talking with two experts in the area of tropical weather, Max Mayfield, left, and Bryan Norcross, right.

These two hurricane specialists currently work for WPLG in Fort Lauderdale. They both need no introduction. Max Mayfield, former Director of the National Hurricane Center, and Bryan Norcross, Mr. Hurricane who appeared on the show a few months ago when his book came out.

Max was unable to get connected to the hangout.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 111 at Death Valley, CA, and 28 at Leadville, CO
  • Alberto developed in SE Gulf and moved north through Alabama
  • Humongous flooding in Ellicott City, MD
  • 4 lightning deaths in US this year
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourae subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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