Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 15, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Hot and muggy.

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June 15, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Mix of sun and clouds.  A few scattered thunderstorms possible.  Most areas will remain dry.  Hot and muggy.  Heat index 96 to 106.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 90 to 95      IL ~ 90 to 95       KY ~ 90 to 95       TN ~  90 to 95
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few thunderstorms are possible.  Where storms occur they will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? If storms develop they could be locally severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few clouds.  A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.  Most areas will remain dry.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74       IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74        TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?   MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: A few scattered storms are possible.
Winds: South and southeast 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few thunderstorms are possible.  Where storms occur they will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? If storms develop they could be locally severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 7:32 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:18 PM

 

June 16, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Hot and muggy.  Some cumulus clouds.  Perhaps an isolated storm.  Most areas will remain dry. Heat index 96 to 106.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 92 to 96      IL ~ 90 to 95       KY ~ 90 to 95       TN ~  92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any.
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Where storms occur they will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? If storms develop they could be locally severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few clouds.  Muggy.  Warm.  Perhaps an isolated storm.  Most areas will remain dry
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 74       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any.
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Where storms occur they will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? If a storm forms it could be locally severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 8:42 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:09 PM

 

June 17, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Some cumulus clouds.  Hot and muggy.  Heat index 96 to 106.  Perhaps an isolated storm.  Most areas will remain dry
Temperatures:  MO ~ 92 to 96      IL ~ 92 to 95       KY ~ 92 to 95       TN ~  92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any.
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Where storms occur they will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? If a storm forms it could be locally severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few clouds.  Muggy.  Warm.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 74       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any.
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Where storms occur they will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? If a storm forms it could be locally severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 9:49 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:54 PM

 

June 18, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A few thunderstorms possible.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 74       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 10:59 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

 

June 18, 2018
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A few thunderstorms possible.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 74       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 12:06 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:34 AM

 

June 18, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 74       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:10 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:09 AM

 

June 19, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 74       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 2:13 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 1:41 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

 

A few widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible over the coming days.

Heavy rain will occur where storms form.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA rainfall forecast through next Friday.

We are in a summer pattern.  That means a WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.

This map is not showing the potential of thunderstorm complexes next week.  This may need adjusting IF MCS’s occur.

 

 

This next graphic is the NAM model guidance rainfall forecast

This is today through 1 PM Sunday

Click images to enlarge

 

 

This next graphic is the 3K NAM

This is through 1 PM Saturday

 

 

This next graphic is the GFS model rainfall

This is from now through 1 AM Tuesday

We will have to monitor for thunderstorm complexes next week.  If they occur then very heavy rain would likely fall in a few locations.

Model’s are not handling that idea all that well.

 

 

.

 

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If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions?  Broken links?  Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Friday through Sunday: Thunderstorm chances are fairly low through Sunday.  Isolated to widely scattered storms possible.

Where storms occur there will be heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Monday through Friday: Thunderstorm chances are expected to rise next week.  Some of the storms could be intense.  Heavy rain is a concern (where storms occur).  Moisture content of the atmosphere will be high.

We may have to deal with some more MCS’s next week.  MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. High heat index values through at least Sunday
  2. A few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
  3. I am monitoring thunderstorm chances next week.  High moisture content in the atmosphere could mean heavy rain if thunderstorm form.

 

I was not all that happy with the forecast yesterday in southeast Missouri.  Most of southern Illinois and western Kentucky remained dry.  Southeast Missouri, however, received widespread thunderstorms.

Some of the thunderstorms produced damaging winds.

There was a disturbance that moved through southeast Missouri.  It was a bit stronger than anticipated.  There was plenty of energy in the atmosphere and once storms formed they were intense.

Some of the storms produced one to two inches of rain, nickel size hail, and 60+ mph winds.

Here is the radar estimated rainfall totals.

 

 

There are some boundaries in the region.  I can’t rule out a few storms forming over the coming days.

The storms should, however, be isolated or widely scattered.

If a thunderstorm forms then it could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, hail, and damaging wind.  There is a lot of energy in the atmosphere.

I struggled with what to put the % chance at today.  I think what develops will be widely scattered.  A few showers and thunderstorms.

 

 

For those camping, you will have to endure high heat index values of 98 to 106 degrees.  UV readings will be high, as well.

Keep in mind, there could be a widely scattered or isolated thunderstorm, but most areas will remain dry.

 

 

 

 

Looking ahead to next week.

Very high PWAT values are forecast to push into the region next week.  Thunderstorms that form next week will be prolific rain producers.  We will have to keep a close eye on thunderstorm complexes that form around the edge of a center of high pressure.

These thunderstorm complexes, also called MCS’s, could produce very heavy rain for portions of the region.

Much like this week, some areas will receive inches of rain and some areas will receive very little rain.

It is still a bit early to know details on next weeks thunderstorm chances.

High Heat Index Readings

Senior citizens, young children, and those working outside will have to deal with high heat index values over the coming days.  Especially true Friday into Sunday.

 

 

Do you know the symptoms of heat related illness?

 

 

Also, don’t forget our outdoor friends.

 

 

 

The preliminary July forecast has been updated.  The heat will likely be the big story.

These graphics are for subscribers.

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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team.  I pay them to help with videos.  They have a great team of meteorologists.  The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area.  They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical.  Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.  Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE:  THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

Illinois/Ohio Valley

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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Missouri Valley and Central Plains

 

 

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Long Range

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined.  It is not an exact science.

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

June temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for April through June.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Precipitation outlook for March through May.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

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Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 647

WeatherBrains Episode 647 is now online (June 11, 2018).

If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

This week’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Philom. We will find out exactly what that means in a moment. He is the seventh editor of Farmers’ Almanac, which is significant, given that it was founded in 1818. Peter Geiger, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Sun spot cycles
Tropical disturbance in the Caribbean
Meaning of the word “Philom”
Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
and more!

.

.
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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