Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 6, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Saturday is the pick day of the weekend.

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Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

 

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July 6, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Scattered thunderstorms. Warm and humid.  Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 85 to 90     KY ~ 86 to 92     TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% to 40%      IL ~ 30% to 40%      KY ~ 30% to 40%      TN ~ 30% to 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered thunderstorms
Wind: Variable at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
UV Index: 6 to 8 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:40 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Becoming clear.  Any evening thunderstorms will come to an end.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 66     IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 64 to 68     TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Wind: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Storms should be ending.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 12:52 AM Last Quarter
Moonset: 1:25 PM

 

July 7, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny and warm.  Less humid.  Not as hot.  Nice day anticipated.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 83 to 86    KY ~ 83 to 86      TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:41 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Not quite as warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 65      KY ~ 64 to 68     TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:24 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:28 PM

 

July 8, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Becoming partly sunny.  Scattered heavy thunderstorms possible as a system passes through the region.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.  Torrential downpours in some storms.  isolated damage wind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Storms could be strong.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:42 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds.  Warmer and more humid.  Scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72     KY ~ 66 to 72     TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:58 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:33 PM

 

July 9, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Partly sunny.  Scattered thunderstorms possible. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% to 40%     IL ~ 30% to 40%    KY ~ 30% to 40%     TN ~ 30% to 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:42 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Warmer and more humid.  A few thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75     IL ~ 70 to 75     KY ~ 70 to 75     TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% to 30%    IL ~ 20% to 30%    KY ~ 20% to 30%     TN ~ 20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 2:36 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:40 PM

 

July 10, 2018
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  Hot and humid.  Widely scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads, lightning, gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but summer storms can produce isolated damaging winds and torrential rain
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:43 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Warm and humid.  An isolated evening storm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 73     IL ~ 70 to 73      KY ~ 70 to 73      TN ~ 70 to 73
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check evening radars
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 3:20 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:49 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

A fairly typical weather pattern for our local area.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

 

 

 

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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Friday and Friday night.  A few scattered thunderstorms are possible along an incoming cold front.   Any storms that form would be intense with gusty winds, torrential rain, and lightning,  Pea size hail, as well.

Saturday through Sunday night. Some storms are possible Sunday and Sunday night.  The risk of severe weather is low, but not zero.  Pockets of damaging wind is the main concern.

Monday through Thursday:  Summer pop-up heat of the day storms are possible.  Any storms that form would be intense.

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. Cold front pushing southward
  2. Saturday is the pick day of the weekend!  Enjoy it
  3. Low confidence in thunderstorm activity late Thursday night and Friday
  4. Saturday is the pick day of the weekend.  Enjoy it.

 

Thunderstorms this morning have been prolific lightning producers.  The thunder woke many people up.

We will have some additional storms today.  A few intense storms possible with gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.  Pea to nickel size hail, as well.  A few storms could produce isolated damaging winds.

We did have some isolated wind damage Thursday.  Storms produced small pockets of 50+ mph wind gusts.  Clinton, Kentucky, and Mt Vernon, Illinois, were two locations with wind damage.

These storms are nearly impossible to warn on.  The damaging wind normally only lasts a few minutes.

The cold front responsible for the thunderstorms will push southward tonight and that will bring a temporary end to the rain chances.

 

Somewhat cooler and drier air arrives Saturday.  You will feel a big difference in the atmosphere.  Highs will only be in the 80’s and dew points will drop into the 60’s.  This will feel great when compared with our recent weather.

Saturday is the pick day of the weekend.

 

I thought I would be able to leave rain chances out of the Sunday forecast.  I am adding them back in.  A weak system will pass through the region Sunday and Sunday night.  This system should spark some scattered storms.  Storms that form could be intense.  Summer storms normally are intense.

Widespread severe weather is not in the cards.  Isolated reports of wind damage could occur from the strongest storms.  Frequent lightning, as well.  Pockets of strong winds and pea size hail.  Again, typical summer thunderstorms.

Dew points will rise Sunday.  You can expect it to feel muggy again.  Hot, as well.  Dew points control how humid it feels outside.

 

The heat will last into the upcoming work week.  You can expect 90’s to return Sunday or Monday and then continue until at least Thursday.  Hot and muggy.  The same weather we had this past week.

We will have daily isolated thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday.  The atmosphere becomes more capped Wednesday and Thursday.  That should limit thunderstorm activity.

 

Heat Safety!

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

June temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for April through June.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Precipitation outlook for March through May.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 650

Joining us as Guest WeatherBrains this week we have Ariel Cohen and Ryan Bunker from NWS Topeka, KS. Ariel is the Science and Operations Officer (SOO) at WFO Topeka. They bring a whole host of additional people to the show. They will be discussing the topic of mentorship and career advancement.

Kevin Selle invited Aubrey’s partner in crime while in Norman last week to the show, so joining us from WOOD-TV, Grand Rapids, as our Guest Panelist we have Ellen Bacca.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 119 at Death Valley, CA, and 31 at Leadville, CO
  • Westerlies pushed north along US/Canadian border
  • Severe weather west of Great Lakes next couple of days
  • Hot in Southwest US and along coast from VA to ME
  • Highest drought conditions in Southwest US
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

No video this week.  There is audio.

Link https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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