Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 4, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Hot and muggy weather.

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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

 

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July 4, 2018
Independence Day
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Partly to mostly sunny.  Hot.  Muggy.  Heat index above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96     IL ~ 92 to 96     KY ~ 92 to 96     TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76     IL ~ 72 to 76     KY ~ 72 to 76     TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:27 AM

 

July 5, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A 20% chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96     IL ~ 92 to 96     KY ~ 92 to 96     TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:40 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds.  A 20% chance of evening thunderstorms.  A 40% to 50% chance of thunderstorms after midnight.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76     IL ~ 72 to 76     KY ~ 72 to 76     TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50% (mainly late)     IL ~ 40% to 50% (mainly late)    KY ~ 40% to 50% (mainly late)     TN ~ 40% to 50% (mainly late)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph increasing to 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 12:22 AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:26 PM

 

July 6, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 85 to 90     KY ~ 86 to 92     TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%      IL ~ 40% to 50%      KY ~ 40% to 50%      TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Winds: Variable at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
UV Index: 5 to 6 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:40 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Any remaining showers and storms will come to an end.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 66     IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 64 to 68     TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Wind: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 12:52 AM Last Quarter
Moonset: 1:25 PM

 

July 7, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny and warm.  Less humid.  Not as hot.  Nice day anticipated.
Temperatures: MO ~83 to 86     IL ~ 83 to 86    KY ~ 83 to 86      TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:41 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Not quite as warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 62 to 66     TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:24 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:28 PM

 

July 8, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:42 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72     KY ~ 66 to 72     TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%     KY ~ 5%     TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:58 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:33 PM

 

July 9, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  An isolated thunderstorm possible. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Warmer and more humid.  Perhaps an early evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75     IL ~ 70 to 75     KY ~ 70 to 75     TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated early
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 2:36 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:40 PM

 

July 10, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Hot and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 73     IL ~ 70 to 73      KY ~ 70 to 73      TN ~ 70 to 73
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 3:20 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:49 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

A fairly typical weather pattern for our local area.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

A WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

 

 

.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Tuesday through Thursday. We will have scattered thunderstorm chances through the week.  Many areas may remain dry.  A few areas will experience heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.

Isolated severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out during the heat of the day. Monitor updates.

Friday and Friday night.  An increase in thunderstorms will be possible.  A cold front will bump into all of this warm and moist air.  Strong thunderstorms are possible.  Monitor the severe weather risk.

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. More heat in the forecast.
  2. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
  3. Weeks one through four temperature and precipitation outlooks have been updated.

 

No major changes in the weather today.   Heat and high dew points will make it feel uncomfortable across the region.

Thunderstorms will bubble up this afternoon during the heat of the day.  Some of the storms will produce heavy rain and gusty winds.  Lightning is a concern for outdoor events.

The risk of severe weather is low.  I can’t rule out a microburst (strong down-burst of wind in isolated areas) or two.  That can happen during summer thunderstorms.

No relief from the heat Wednesday.  Thunderstorm activity will wane on Wednesday as high pressure puts a cap (lid) on the atmosphere.  Isolated storms, at best.

Hopefully, you can enjoy your holiday.  The heat will be an issue for some.

Thursday into Friday night will see an uptick in thunderstorm activity.  This is especially true Friday and Friday night.  A cold front will push through the region.

This front will be accompanied by a band of showers and heavy thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain and strong winds will be possible Friday into Friday night.  Severe thunderstorms are possible.

Saturday and Sunday should deliver lower dew points and lower temperatures.  A nicer air-mass appears in the cards.  Let’s hope.  It won’t last all that long, but we will take anything at this point.

Thunderstorm chances Saturday into Sunday should be less than 20%.  I will monitor trends for changes.

Monitor updates over the coming days concern Friday’s weather.  Typically, when a cold front hits this type of atmosphere we do have some fireworks (not the man-made kind).

Enjoy your holiday week.

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

June temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for April through June.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Precipitation outlook for March through May.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 649

Joining us on this episode of WeatherBrains are guest WeatherBrains Benjamin May and Joe Tankersley. Ben came to marketing as a senior executive at Chateau St. Michelle winery. He left this to develop public safety-related “edu-tainment” programs at Disney in Orlando.

Teaming with Disney Imagineer Joe Tankersley, they managed to get together a huge pot of funding and create a program that successfully improved preparedness behaviors for hundreds of thousands of people. They teamed with FLASH, and through that, connected with many of the big names in our field. Through those connections, both men continue to be involved with NWS safety campaigns.

Also joining us from KMBC-TV in Kansas City is guest panelist Nick Bender. Nick is the morning meteorologist there and the proud father of a new baby boy.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 120 at Death Valley, CA, and 30 at Gothic, CO
  • Large slight risk area Tuesday centered on IL and MO
  • Hot in Southwest US into TX
  • Atlantic Basin quiet for now
  • Eastern Pacific Basin has Daniel and another disturbed area
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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