Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 3rd and 4th: Unsettled. Thunderstorm chances.

July 5, 2017

Winds

Gusty winds can occur near thunderstorms.

Today: S SE at 7 to 14 mph
Tonight: S SE at 4 to 8 mph
Thursday: S SW 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12
Thursday night: Variable at 0 to 5 mph
Friday: W SW at 8 to 16 mph

Today and tonight:

A weak area of low pressure will pass through the region today into tonight. This slow moving system will trigger additional showers and storms.

Unsettled day of weather ahead of us. Showers and thunderstorms will deliver localized heavy rain.

A few of the storms could produce brief pockets of damaging wind. A non-zero severe weather risk day.

There has been several funnel clouds over the last few days. Typical for a weak wind shear environment with low LCL’s and boundaries. These rarely touch down and are more of a novelty event than anything else.

Either way, I will keep an eye on it.

Rainfall totals today will range from almost nothing to over two inches. Same as the past few days. Hit and miss extremely heavy rain.

Summer. Tropical rains. High dew points and high moisture content for the atmosphere. Slow moving storms can cause isolated flash flooding.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be with us into Thursday. The bulk of the activity will shift to our eastern counties on Thursday.

Friday into Sunday

A cold front will push through the region on Friday. A few showers and storms possible along the front. Somewhat cooler and less humid air by Saturday and Sunday.

EC guidance wants to pop a few showers on Sunday. Low confidence on that part of the forecast.

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link
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Weather Talk subscribers ~ I have hired a team of long-range meteorologist to help cover agriculture forecasts.  Videos are updated once or twice each day (Monday through Friday).
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Videos can be viewed at this link.    Long Range Video Update

If you believe you missed a video then you can also click the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website.  That page holds links for several days.

I can text you the videos, as well.  Make sure you have text option FOUR turned on.  That would be the Weather Extra text option.  Sign up for the text messages at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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The following link is for Weather Text subscribers.  This is the page where short and long range video outlooks have been posted.  The videos are being produced by a team of meteorologists.  Some of the best in the region.
https://weathertalk.com/app/beaucast

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July 3, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Quite a few clouds.  Warm.  Humid.  Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially before 10 pm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 72     IL ~ 68 to 72    KY ~ 68 to 72   TN ~ 76 to 72
Winds:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph.  Winds will be variable at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 4, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Hot and humid.  Widely scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90    KY ~ 85 to 90  TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but occasionally storms can produce down-burst winds..
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warm.  A chance for widely scattered thunderstorms possible during the evening.  A chance for storms late.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74    KY ~ 70 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: Variable at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather appears unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30% early and 60% late    IL ~ 30% early and 60% late    KY ~ 30% early and 50% late    TN ~ 30% early and 50% late
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered early and perhaps scattered late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 5, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Rain probabilities may need adjusting.
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92    KY ~ 88 to 92  TN ~ 88 to 92
Winds:  South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Gusty winds with storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe storms possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Cloudy.  Warm.  A shower or thunderstorm possible, especially eastern half of the region.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75     IL ~ 70 to 75    KY ~ 70 to 75   TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds:  South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Gusty winds with storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be quite intense.  I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 6, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86    KY ~ 82 to 86    TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds:  Southerly winds becoming more north and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear to partly cloudy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72    KY ~ 66 to 72   TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds:  Variable at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Perhaps patchy fog.  Early evening wet roadways and lightning possible over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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July 7, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Hot and humid.  A few thunderstorms possible.  Breezy, at times.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90    KY ~ 85 to 90  TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  West and southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warm.  A chance for thunderstorms (mainly before 11 pm)
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72    KY ~ 66 to 72   TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds:  Winds becoming north and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.

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July 8, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Patchy cumulus clouds.  Less humid.  Warm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90    KY ~ 85 to 90  TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None anticipated
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.  Pleasant evening anticipated.  Less humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66     IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 62 to 66     TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  North light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None anticipated
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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July 9, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A small chance for a shower.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90    KY ~ 85 to 90  TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.  A small chance for an evening shower.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70    KY ~ 65 to 70   TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  Variable light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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July 10, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly to partly sunny.  Some cumulus clouds.   Isolated thunderstorm possible.  Warm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90    KY ~ 85 to 90  TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  South winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warm.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70    KY ~ 65 to 70   TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  South winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Monday night into Wednesday night:  Thunderstorms are possible throughout the period.  Some of the storms could be intense.  Lightning is an issue for outdoor activities.  Down-burst winds can occasionally cause tree damage.  Typically this happens when a storm collapses and weakens.

There is a risk that a couple of storms could pulse up to severe limits.  I am monitoring Wednesday and Wednesday night for  severe weather.   A stronger system moves through the region during that time frame.  Monitor updates, as always.

I would not change any  plans.  I would monitor updated forecasts.  If thunderstorms approach, and you are camping, then take appropriate precautions.  In other words, use common sense.

Thursday and Thursday night:  Isolated to no storms.

Friday into Saturday:  Additional storms are possible.  Too soon to know extent or intensity.

 

beausanalysis

 

Wind forecast

Storms can always be higher near thunderstorms.

Monday night: NE/E/SE 3 to 6 mph
Tuesday:  Variable 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Tuesday night: Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph
Wednesday:  West an southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
Wednesday night:  Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph

An unsettled weather pattern over the coming week.  Typical for summer.

There is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.  Where thunderstorms occur, they could produce heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning, and strong/gusty winds.  Occasionally storms can produce wind damage.

Temperatures this week will be warm.  Highs will range from the middle 80’s to lower 90’s.  Dew points will be high.  That means muggy air.

There will be a couple of time periods with increased thunderstorm chances.  One of those times will be after midnight on Tuesday night into Wednesday/Wednesday night.  Another time frame might be late Friday night into Saturday.

As is typically the case, during the summer months, forecasting timing and extent of thunderstorm activity can be tricky, at best.  I would monitor updates and radars as we move forward.

Models are showing a decent range for high temperatures this week.  The GFS has a warm bias.  Perhaps some of these higher numbers are too high.  Either way, it will be quite warm.

Tuesday high temperatures via the GFS model

Wednesday high temperatures via the GFS model

Thursday high temperatures via the GFS model

Friday high temperatures via the GFS model

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Sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com

We also have an Apple and Android app (scroll down to bottom of the page for more information)

Were you aware that I have hired some help for long range videos?  Short range videos, as well.  An amazing team of meteorologists.

Click the link below to read more

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Weather Talk subscribers now have some of the best short and long range weather videos produced across the eastern United States.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The app is for text subscribers.

The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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