Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 31, 2017: A late week cold front.

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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July 31, 2017

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear the first half of the night.  Some increase in clouds late tonight.  Dry.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70      IL ~ 65 to 70      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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August 1, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  A slight chance for a thunderstorm during the afternoon.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90     KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  Variable winds becoming southerly at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Small risk for wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  A slight chance for a thunderstorm, mainly late.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70     TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  For most areas, none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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August 2, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  Scattered storms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars for some storms.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  A chance for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68       IL ~ 64 to 68       KY ~ 64 to 68     TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.

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August 3, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon..
Temperatures:   MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds:  South winds at 6 to 12 mph.  Gusty winds, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and radars.  Timing of precipitation is in question.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Becoming cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms developing.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 72       IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72     TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: South winds at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

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August 4, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82      KY ~ 76 to 82       TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds:  Southwest becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous during the morning.  Scattered during the afternoon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clearing.  Cooler.  Less humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 56 to 64       IL ~ 56 to 64        KY ~ 56 to 64      TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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August 5, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Cooler.  Less humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 75 to 80     IL ~ 75 to 80      KY ~ 75 to 80      TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: North winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.  Starry night.  Cool.  Less humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 55 to 60       IL ~ 55 to 60      KY ~ 55 to 60       TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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August 6, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~ 78 to 84      KY ~ 78 to 84       TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.  Cool.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68        IL ~ 64 to 68         KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

 

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Monday night through Wednesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning is possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.  A few storms.

Thursday and Friday: Thunderstorms are possible along an incoming cold front.  A few of the storms could be intense.  Locally heavy rain and lighting will be the main concern.  Small risk for damaging winds.

Saturday and Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

beausanalysis

Wow, what a beautiful weekend.  I hope you were able to enjoy it.  If you like the weekend forecast then you will love the forecast for this Saturday and Sunday.

The fall outlook has been posted on the subscription site.  Video link ~ click here.

To sign up visit www.beaudodsonweather.com

Current Weather

Expect dry conditions on Monday night.  Mild temperatures.  Just a little bit more humid compared with recent nights.

Temperatures will nudge closer to normal by Tuesday and Wednesday.  That will mean high temperatures in the 85 to 90 degree range.  A bit more humid, as well.

Here is the Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon temperature forecast from the GFS guidance.

Tuesday

Click to enlarge

and Wednesday (some of these may be a bit too low).   I went upper 80’s for most of us on Wednesday.  GFS is a bit cooler.

We may have a few more clouds on Wednesday.  That is likely why the model is showing lower temperatures for some.

Temperature anomalies for Tuesday and Wednesday indicate these numbers are still slightly below normal.

Tuesday (how many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be)

and Wednesday

The rain chance through Tuesday night is low.  I can’t completely rule out isolated storms on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Most will remain dry.

Moisture begins to increase on Wednesday into Thursday.  A cold front is going to push into our region from the northwest and this front will help showers and thunderstorms to develop.

The best chance of rain will arrive on Thursday night into Friday.  This is when the front will push through the region.  Lift along the front, combined with warm temperatures and higher dew points, will mean shower and thunderstorm chances north of 50%.

Guidance is mixed on rainfall totals.   Typical for summer months, some will receive over an inch of rain and others may receive no rain at all.

We do stand a decent chance for measurable precipitation with this front.

For what it is worth, here is the GFS rainfall forecast for Thursday and Friday.

Click to enlarge

This is guidance and not gospel.  It won’t be exact.  Again, some areas may remain dry.

Check out the dew point charts for the coming week.

Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.

Wednesday dew points

Thursday dew points

Compare those to Saturday (weekend will be nicer)

The Thursday and Friday cold front:

The cold front will help spark showers and thunderstorms.  A few spots could pick up locally heavy rain.  PWAT (measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere) will increase on both Thursday and Thursday night.  Increasing PWAT values usually mean locally heavy rain.

Here is the PWAT map.  This is for Thursday night/Friday morning ahead of the cold front.

Often times, the PWAT values will increase along a cold front.  This is called pooling.  Moisture pools ahead of the boundary.  Notice the sharp drop off of PWAT values behind the cold front.

The threat for severe weather appears small.  Wind fields aloft are not all that great.  This is typical for the summer months.  Normally our stronger wind fields don’t arrive until October and November.  That is one reason we have tornadoes in October and November.

The front should exit the region by Friday afternoon or evening.  This will shut down precipitation chances.

Beautiful weather is anticipated on Friday night through Sunday.  Cooler temperatures and lower dew points.  It will be a repeat of this past weekend.

Check out the Saturday and Sunday temperature anomaly maps.  How many degrees below normal will temperatures be?

Normal highs are around 88 to 90 degrees.

Saturday

Sunday

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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