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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Keep in mind that rainfall probabilities may have to be adjusted. It is difficult to forecast MCS’s days in advance.
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July 27, 2016
Sunset will be at 8:05 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:09 p.m. Waning Crescent
Flash Flooding Possible Tonight
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Heavy thunderstorms possible. Flash flooding possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 28, 2016
Thursday – Patchy fog. Partly sunny. Thunderstorms likely. Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:57 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:04 p.m.
UV index will be 4-7. Medium. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 1:14 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:15 p.m. Waning Crescent
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 29, 2016
Friday – Partly sunny. Thunderstorms possible. Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:58 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:03 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 2:00 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:18 p.m. Waning Crescent
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 30, 2016
Saturday – Partly sunny. A few showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:01 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Moderate to possibly high. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 2:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:19 p.m. Waning Crescent
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 31, 2016
Sunday – Partly sunny. A few storms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:01 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. Moderate to possibly high. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 3:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:18 p.m. Waning Crescent
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Disturbance will enhance rain
- Scattered showers and storms on Friday-Sunday, as well
- Another system next week
- Meteorological fall
A broken record forecast. I feel like the record is skip skip skipping! We will continue to have showers and thunderstorms to deal with over the coming days. A stationary front is draped across our region. The front will meander around our local area on both Thursday and Friday.
Disturbances that move along the front will help trigger showers and heavy thunderstorms. Same as the past few days. Some areas will pick up 1-3″ of rain per hour. Again, much like recent days.
Rainfall totals, since Monday, have varied greatly. Some spots have picked up almost no rain. Some spots have picked up more than four inches of rain. Feast or famine. That is what I always call summer thunderstorms.
A hybrid-tropical system will push northward over the next couple of days. This system will be moving into our region from Louisiana and Mississippi. This system will help enhance moisture over at least the southern half of the region. That means some big rainfall totals will be possible over northeast Arkansas into Kentucky and Tennessee. Not sure how far north this system will push. A lot of that will depend on the placement of the stationary front.
If precipitation trains over the same areas then some flash flooding will be possible. Keep this in mind. Flash flooding is certainly a possibility in our local area.
The risk for severe weather remains low. I can’t completely rule out a downburst. A downburst would be strong winds over isolated areas. The overall set-up is more about heavy rain than severe weather. Lightning is also a concern. These storms have been producing a lot of lightning over the last few days. Keep this in mind if you have outdoor events.
Coverage of precipitation might be a bit less on Friday into Sunday. With that said, data still keeps at least 40%-50% rain chances in the region. I will need to monitor and update that part of the forecast as we move forward. Plan on at least a chance for scattered storms Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Temperatures will be somewhat tempered by cloud cover. Daily highs from 84 to 88 will be the general rule. Where clouds thin you might pop into the 88-90 degree range. Isolated higher readings.
I am watching another cold front towards the middle of next week. That front will deliver more showers and thunderstorms. We have not had a lack of rain this summer. At least most areas.
August will soon be here! That means four more weeks until meteorological fall arrives. Meteorologists measure seasons a little different than everyone else. We can consider fall to be September through November. I don’t know where the time goes. Sure does seem to fly.
Temperatures over the coming days will mostly average below normal. That is partly because of cloud cover and precipitation. Overnight lows might be a bit above normal. Again, that is because of clouds. Clouds help keep temperatures up at night.
Normal high temperatures are around 89 degrees and normal low temperatures are around 68 degrees.
Here are some temperature anomaly maps for the coming days. Red indicates above normal temperatures. Blue indicates below normal temperatures.
This first map is for Thursday afternoon. Mostly below normal temperatures. Clouds and precipitation will help keep temperature down.
Notice on this image that it is a bit warmer than normal. This is the Thursday night map. Again, clouds help keep temperatures up a bit.
Here is the Friday afternoon temperature anomaly map
Here is the Saturday afternoon map
Finally, here is the Sunday map.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the week. A few of the storms could produce very heavy rainfall totals. I am forecasting a general 0.75″-1.50″ of rain for the entire event. Some spots could receive 3-6″ of rain. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
The entire event means whatever falls from Monday (July 25th through this coming Sunday).
PWAT values will be high Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. They do diminish somewhat on Friday as the front pushes a bit further south. PWAT values are a great way to measure moisture in the entire atmosphere. The higher the number the more likely heavy rain will be a problem. PWAT values above 1.7 are high. PWAT values above 2″ are extreme.
Here are some PWAT value maps. Click the map for a larger view.
Here is the 10 pm map for Wednesday night. Notice those bright white patches? Those are readings above 2.4″. That is a lot of moisture for storms to tap into.
Here is the Thursday morning map. High readings over parts of the region.
Here is the map for Thursday evening. Notice the lower moisture content of the atmosphere further north (northern Missouri).
Finally, here is the map for Friday morning. Notice somewhat lower readings pushing in from the north.
Here is the NWS/WPC broad-brushed rainfall outlook. Keep in mind, totals will vary greatly.
Thursday morning low temperature map (will vary based on clouds)
Click images for a larger view
Thursday high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)
Friday morning low temperature map
Friday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday-Sunday: Thunderstorms will be possible. Some of the storms will produce very heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Monitor updates.
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No major shifts in this outlook.
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The main concern continues to be heavy downpours. Rainfall totals of 1-3″ per hour will be possible with the heaviest thunderstorms. Lightning is also a concern for outdoor events.
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Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
Monitor any watches and warnings that might need to be issued over the coming week.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
