Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 21 and 22, 2017: Heat to continue.

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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The following link is for Weather Text subscribers.  This is the page where short and long range video outlooks have been posted.  The videos are being produced by a team of meteorologists.  Some of the best in the region.
https://weathertalk.com/app/beaucast

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July 21, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.  Warm and muggy.  An isolated evening storm possible.  Most will remain dry.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 74 to 78     IL ~ 74 to 78     KY ~ 74 to 78     TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None for most.  Small chance for lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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July 22, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Heat warning.  Mostly sunny.  Hot and muggy.  An isolated storm possible.  Heat index of 108 to 116 degrees.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 95 to 100    IL ~ 95 to 100    KY ~ 95 to 100    TN ~ 95 to 100
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  Small chance for lightning and wet roadways. with lightning and downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear and warm.  Muggy.  A thunderstorm possible.  Best chances will be late.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 74 to 78      IL ~ 74 to 78     KY ~ 74 to 78     TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds:  South and southwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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July 23, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Hot and muggy.  Heat index above 100.  Scattered thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 90 to 95     IL ~ 90 to 95      KY ~ 90 to 95      TN ~ 90 to 95
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.  Winds becoming southwest and west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning and wet roadways.  Heavy downpours.  Strong winds with some storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected?  Isolated high wind threat.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warm and muggy.  Scattered storms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75     IL ~ 70 to 75    KY ~ 70 to 75    TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds:  West and southwest at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph.  Winds becoming west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Downpours.  Gusty winds near storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected?  Small risk for high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.

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July 24, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warm and humid.  A chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 86 to 92     KY ~ 86 to 92      TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds:  Southwest and west winds at 5 to 10 mph.  Winds becoming variable.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Heavy downpours.  Strong winds near storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?   Isolated damaging winds possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Humid.  A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70     KY ~ 65 to 70     TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Small risk for strong winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.

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July 25, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly to partly sunny.  Perhaps not as warm.  Isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90     KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?   Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70     KY ~ 65 to 70     TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Isolated.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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July 26, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly to partly sunny.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 86 to 92     KY ~ 86 to 92      TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Warm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70      IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70       TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

 

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Friday night through Saturday night: Organized severe weather is not anticipated.  Typical summer pop-up storms are possible, but many will remain dry.

Sunday night through Monday night:  Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday and Monday.  Some of the storms could produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, heavy downpours, strong and gusty winds, and dime size hail.

I can’t rule out isolated damaging wind reports on Sunday into Monday.  The atmosphere will be quite unstable.  Thankfully, wind fields won’t be all that impressive.  This should keep the severe weather concerns to a minimum.

 

beausanalysis

Heat index values today climbed to ridiculous levels.  This is certainly dangerous heat.  Some people think that heat index levels simply make it seem hotter.  That is not the case.  These numbers are vital for those who work outdoors.  State road crews depend on them for decision making.

Here the 1 pm Friday heat index numbers.  Yeesh.

It is summer and our region typically does have several extreme days sprinkled in.  Today was one of them.

The good news is that there is some relief in the charts.  Now, which charts to believe.  That is the more difficult question.

Saturday and Saturday night will deliver more hot and muggy weather.  Saturday will be similar to today.  High temperatures in the middle to upper 90’s.  Heat index values of 105 to 115 degrees.  Ick weather.

The weather begins to shift by Sunday.  How much of a shift?  That is the big question.  Models do not agree.

A disturbance will push into our region form the north on Sunday and Sunday night.  This disturbance should help trigger some showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

There is no shortage of moisture in the atmosphere.   Some areas could pick up 1″ to 2″ of rain (or more).  Other locations will remain dry.  Typical summer rain event.  Feast or famine.  That is what I call summer thunderstorms.

PWAT values on Sunday will be quite high.  That is one signal for heavy downpours.

What are PWAT values?  Click here to learn more.

We should see at least scattered coverage on Sunday into Monday.  I have rain chances hovering around the 40% to 50% range.  Medium confidence on the Sunday and Monday forecast.

Highs on Sunday might be tempered by the clouds.  Still, it will be hot.  High temperatures, on Sunday afternoon, will range from 88 to 94 degrees.  If the sun hangs around a bit longer then bump those temperatures up a few more degrees.  Heat index values of 96 to 106.

 

Guidance has been hinting at a possible cool down next week.  I am not overly confident about that happening.  The ensemble means show temperatures remaining in the 88 to 96 degree range right on through Friday.

Here is the EC 15 day high and low temperature chart

Click to enlarge

Here is the GFS 15 day high and low temperature chart

Do you know how to spot heat illnesses?  Here are some symptoms.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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